177
FXUS61 KBTV 152325
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for light snow will continue tonight, with additional
showers expected Wednesday. By mid-week, a warming trend will begin,
with temperatures above freezing expected for Wednesday and
Thursday. A stronger system will bring gusty winds and
widespread rainfall late Thursday, with colder air returning on
Friday behind a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 158 PM EST Monday...It continues to be a cold day across the
region this afternoon, with current temperatures in the teens to low
20s areawide. While mostly dry conditions are currently being
observed this afternoon, some additional snow showers will be
possible this evening through the overnight as a weak shortwave
passes overhead, especially across northern New York where Lake
Ontario will aid with additional shower development. Overall total
snowfall accumulations will be fairly minor, with an inch or so in
the most favored areas. Overnight lows will be on the cool side,
with temperatures in the single digits and teens.

Shower activity will continue to wane as we head into tomorrow
morning, with weak ridging building overhead and warm air advection
beginning to take place. Winds will be breezy Tuesday night into
Wednesday, especially in the Champlain Valley and the higher
summits. Temperatures will still be on the cool side for Tuesday,
with daytime highs generally in the 20s to low 30s. Temperatures
will continue to warm through the night towards Wednesday morning
with locations approaching freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 158 PM EST Monday...The active weather pattern will continue
across the region, with several chances for precipitation next week.
A weak low pressure system will pass along the International border,
bringing some light showers to the northern portion of the forecast
area. Precipitation amounts will generally be pretty light with this
system, although temperatures will likely to allow for some rain in
the broader valleys with high temperatures ranging in the low 30s to
near 40. Strong southerly winds will continue as we head into
Thursday, with temperatures warming above freezing areawide and with
some locations even in the low 40s by the afternoon. Winds will be
quite strong, especially within the Champlain Valley due to a strong
low level jet overhead. Precipitation will begin to move into the
region Thursday evening, primarily as rainfall with additional
details in the discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 158 PM EST Monday...An impactful system is still on track for
Thursday night and Friday. A strong low pressure system will lift
north through the Great Lakes Thursday night and then trek eastward
north of the international border on Friday. A robust 850 mb jet of
70-80 kt will usher in strong warm air advection Thursday night,
allowing temperatures to warm well into the 40s overnight. Steady
rain will spread from west to east, perhaps starting as snow at the
highest elevations. But we do expect even our tallest peaks will
turn over to rain late Thursday night as 850mb temperatures warm to
nearly +5C. The steady nature of the rain will help to keep the bulk
of the jet from mixing to lower elevations, but we do expect the
higher summits will be very windy, as will Lake Champlain. As the
low moves by to our north on Friday, it will drag a strong cold
front across northern NY and VT, resulting in sharply dropping
temperatures. Rain will quickly change over to snow from west to
east, and given the strong frontogenetical forcing, wouldn`t be
surprised if precipitation (both rain and snow) is heavy at times
Friday morning into the early afternoon. Winds will shift to the
west behind the front and once again become quite gusty as cold air
advection results in better mixing. It`s still a little too early to
talk any kind of specific rain or snow amounts, but do anticipate at
least some modest river rises due to runoff from both rain and
snowmelt. Whether it will be enough to flush out any of the river
ice that has formed already this season is likewise still uncertain.
There could also be a bit of freezing rain at the onset of
precipitation, particularly in eastern VT where cold air may be
tougher to scour out. So travel impacts will also be possible,
either Thursday night or on Friday as rain turns back to snow, with
roads potentially experiencing a flash freeze. Winds and any heavier
snow could also impact utilities. So please stay tuned as this event
draws closer, as we`ll continue to refine the forecast as the
details become more clear.

High pressure briefly noses in on Saturday, but another round of
precipitation is possible for the latter half of the weekend as
another weaker low moves by to our north. Precip could be a mix of
rain and snow, though it should change over to all snow Sunday night
as colder air wraps back around the system as it departs to the
east. High pressure looks to return for Monday, with dry but cool
conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...The main focus for the next 6 hours will
be a band of lake effect snow, mainly near KSLK, and a few areas
with MVFR ceilings overnight. Most snow at KSLK will be likely
between about 02z and 08z. A weak trough will progress east, and
sufficient moisture is around that there`s a low chance a few
terminals observe very light snow, and a PROB30 has been noted
at several terminals as a result. Winds are a mix of
northwesterly to southwesterly and will become increasingly
variable. Winds around 2000 ft agl in association with the
trough will produce a small window of LLWS nearest the
international border with the highest confidence at KMSS, KSLK,
KPBG, and KEFK through about 06z. Beyond 06z, winds will
steadily trend southeast to southerly, and MVFR ceilings will
improve 10z-14z. Wind speeds will increase to 5 to 9 knots. Flow
becomes increasingly channeled about 21-22z, and we`ll likely
observe additional LLWS approaching 00z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Definite RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Likely RA, Chance SN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes/Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV