960
FXUS61 KBTV 171126
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
626 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow is currently falling across northern New York and Vermont early
this morning. Persistent northwesterly flow and a prolonged period
of upslope snow across the Adirondacks and Greens is expected for
the first half of the week. Moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds
are expected, especially for northwestern slopes with additional
snow accumulations around 2 to 8 inches forecast. Snow showers will
eventually taper off by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 143 AM EST Monday...

* Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
  effect through this evening for portions of northern New York
  and Vermont, bringing an additional 2 to 8 inches of snow for
  a total of 7 to 10 inches with up to 10 to 16 inches possible
  on the northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens.

Surface low pressure is currently crossing Prince Edward Island,
Canada, early this morning, keeping northern New York and Vermont
under persistent northwesterly flow. This is resulting in upslope
snow showers and gusty west and northwest winds. Additional snow
accumulations will occur throughout the day today, mainly on western
and northwestern slopes of the region`s mountains. A notable lack of
moisture in the snow growth zone of the atmosphere with dry layers
seen on satellite may limit us from reaching our full snowfall
potential today. An additional trace to three inches is possible in
the St. Lawrence and Champlain valleys, increasing as you get closer
to the mountains.

The Connecticut River Valley area will likely miss out on any more
snow today, while high elevations of the northern/central Greens and
the northwestern Adirondacks could have about 3 to 8 inches of new
snow by the end of the day, with the majority of it falling in the
morning hours. Snow shower coverage is anticipated to decrease
throughout the day as low pressure shifts northwards towards
Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. We have not received many reports
overnight tonight, so the storm total is a challenge to deduce at
the moment, but we`re estimating around 7 to 10 inches will be the
total for Warning areas with some of the more robust 10 to 16 inch
totals reserved for high elevation westerly and northwesterly
slopes.

In terms of winds, we`re forecasting gusts to be highest through
noon, as high as 20 to 35 mph, closer to 35 to 40 mph on Lake
Champlain, mountaintops, and easterly/southeasterly slopes. Winds
should begin to relent in the afternoon, but remain breezy with the
potential to blow snow around and lower visibilities. Highs will be
chilly in the upper 20s and 30s in the afternoon, about 5 to 15
degrees below seasonal normals.

Tonight, low pressure will continue to circulate around
Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, resulting in the 20-50%
chance for some additional snow showers in the Adirondacks,
northern Greens, and Northeast Kingdom. Additional snow of up to
2-4 inches is possible throughout the night in these areas.
Breezy winds will continue out of the west and northwest with
gusts 15 to 25 mph, higher on summits and likely blowing snow
around. These winds, combined with lows in the upper teens and
20s, will result in wind chills as low as the single digits to
lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 143 AM EST Monday...Some lingering upslope snow showers
will continue to be possible tomorrow, but coverage will be
limited to terrain in northern Vermont, and snow will not
accumulating as much as high pressure noses into the region.
Overall flow will remain northwesterly and it may take some time
for the lower levels to dry out. Temperatures on Tuesday
afternoon will range from the 30s to lower 40s, then falling to
the teens and 20s Tuesday night. Wednesday looks to be a dry day
of increasing sunshine and highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s as
high pressure is finally stretched across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 143 AM EST Monday...The longwave pattern progression is
overwhelmingly anticipated to become more zonal mid/late week with
northern New York and Vermont. The region is favored to be under
high pressure through late Thursday before another system moves
through Friday with the 540dm thickness line likely shifting
northward into Canada by Saturday. This points to a relative warming
trend with coldest air locked more northward in Canada. Despite a
frontal system expected to pass north of the region Friday, model
temperatures continue to warm with highs mid week in the 30s warming
into the low/mid 40s by Saturday. Still, elevation dependent
snowfall is probable given resident cold air, and can`t rule out
some ice and eventual rain for higher elevations as relatively
warmer air displaces colder airmass. Farther afield, Sunday into
next week, longer range guidance shows potential for longwave
pattern amplification suggesting more changeable weather on the way.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...A mix of VFR to IFR conditions are
occurring with numerous snow showers ongoing. Biggest impacts
remain at SLK where upsloping has kept conditions more IFR in
respect to VIS whereas other locations like MSS/EFK/MPV have
been oscillating as showers move through more intermittently.
For BTV/PBG showers are more sparse since flow remains unblocked
allowing for upsloping showers to continue over terrain rather
than backing up over these terminals. RUT have had intermittent
MVFR CIGs with snow showers. All terminals can expect SHSN at
least in the vicinity through 18Z before chances really start to
drop in earnest. That said, northeastern Vermont may have a
difficult time for showers to shut off even after 00Z; EFK has a
decent shot of seeing MVFR CIG/VIS through 06Z should showers
persist. Westerly flow has tapered down from yesterday`s higher
gusts, but remain breezy out of the west- northwest. Gradient
winds will continue through the remainder of the period even
after showers taper down 18-06Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for all areas of Lake
Champlain with northwesterly winds 15 to 30 knots, becoming
westerly this afternoon with gusts as high as 35 to 40 knots
possible. Waves will be around 2 to 5 feet, subsiding slightly
to 1 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Strong winds as high as 20 to
25 knots are forecast to continue tonight.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ002-
     004-018-019.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ003-
     006-008-016-017.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ027-
     034.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
MARINE...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV