512
FXUS61 KBTV 041747
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1247 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic front will traverse the region from northwest to southeast
this morning through early afternoon accompanied by scattered to
numerous snow showers and possible embedded snow squalls. Gusty
winds and sharply falling temperatures follow post frontal passage
this afternoon. Frigid conditions are expected tonight with
widespread lows in the single digits above and below zero, but
temperatures moderate back into the 20s and 30s for highs, and teens
to 20s for lows Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 148 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:
* Lake effect snow continues across central/southern St.
  Lawrence County early this morning.
* Scattered to numerous snow showers with possible embedded snow
  squalls along an arctic frontal passage from sunrise through
  early afternoon.
* Frigid temperatures tonight in the single digits above and
  below zero. Some teens below zero in the colder hollows.

Overall, no major changes have been made to the forecast we`ve been
highlighting for the past few days. Early morning radar analysis
shows ongoing light lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario up
through the St. Lawrence Valley but returns are weaker than expected
and advisory level snow accumulations may be tough to attain. Also
seen on upstream radar is the well advertised arctic front noted as
a very thin line of reflectivity currently moving through Ottawa and
approaching the Franktown radar. 00Z CAMs depict this feature fairly
well and continue to show it`s progression southeastward through
northern New York from 09-12Z, the northern Champlain Valley and
north-central Vermont from 12-15Z, and central/southern Vermont from
15-18Z. While surface convergence and frontogenesis remain strong
with this feature, what it lacks on the 00Z CAMs is any significant
instability until the afternoon post frontal passage when the
trailing mid/upper level shortwave moves through. Hence, the threat
for any strong snow squalls may be less than previously expected
through the morning commute, with greater potential embedded within
scattered snow showers this afternoon. We`ll have several eyes on
the radar through the day and will issue statements appropriately.

Otherwise, post-frontal passage temperatures remain progged to fall
sharply from early morning highs in the 20s and 30s to the teens by
sunset. Deep mixing additionally looks to develop post frontal
passage this afternoon and early evening producing wind gusts of 25-
35 mph which could create some areas of blowing/drifting snow for
the evening commute. Winds abate after midnight and skies trend
towards clearing setting the stage for excellent radiational cooling
and the coldest night of the season yet. Lows are expected to fall
into the single digits above and below zero area-wide, with locally
some teens below zero in the colder hollows of the Adirondacks and
far northern Essex County of Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 AM EST Thursday...Quiet weather is expected again for
Friday and Friday night as high pressure dominates. Frigid
temperatures early morning Friday moderate to afternoon highs in the
teens and lows 20s, and drop back down into the single digits and
teens above zero Friday night under increasing cloud cover. A
shortwave trough passing north of the border renews chances for snow
showers across northern portions of the region Saturday, focused
mostly downwind of Lake Ontario northeast through the Adirondacks
and northern Vermont. With the best upper level dynamics north of
the region, snow accumulations should be rather light and non-
impactful with daytime temperatures returning to closer to seasonal
normals in the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Thursday...Sunday will be cool, but generally
nice to start the day. A warm front is going to move north
partway across the region. So temperatures across southern
Vermont will be near freezing, while the international border
remains around 20. Clouds will be on the increase as that
boundary approaches, and PoPs begin climbing towards the end of
the day.

Most guidance depicts light snow overnight into Monday, but the GFS
is an outlier in developing a deeper low with some higher snowfall
amounts. Regardless, cold air will filter back in, with temperatures
struggling in the 10s during the day, and then falling into the
single digits above and below zero Monday night into Tuesday. The
overall pattern from ensembles indicates slight amplification of the
pattern, but most of the systems will be quick moving and relatively
minor impact with additional snow chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Scattered snow showers with embedded snow
squalls, while still in the region, should be tapering off as the
associated cold front continues to push further south and east. As
of 18Z, a band of moderate snow was approaching BTV with observed
3SM at PBG. This band looks to be the last of the snow showers in
northern Vermont and for MSS. As the band shifts south it may reach
MPV by 20Z with the potential for brief IFR vsbys at EFK/BTV and
perhaps MPV. Utilized PROB30 for RUT due to uncertainty of the
propagation and energy available for the band further south. Low
level moisture will keep -shsn at SLK for at least a few more hours.
The back edge of the clouds deck looks to be on the doorstep of the
St. Lawrence Valley which will bring a quick improvement to VFR as
the clearing gradually continues eastward. All sites should see
trends to VFR beyond 19Z, with high confidence in VFR beyond 00Z.
Gusty north/northwest winds will continue through 00Z, before
weakening towards calm by 06Z. Winds could gust up to 30-35kts at
PBG/BTV, and 20-30kts elsewhere. Clouds will clear with weak light
and variable winds for the remainder of the overnight period towards
12Z, with VFR continuing well into tomorrow.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ029-087.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ029-030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV