Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
146 FXUS61 KBUF 190641 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 141 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A few light rain or wet snow showers will be possible toward the NY/PA border through the overnight, otherwise high pressure will provide dry weather through Thursday before milder air and the possibility for some rain showers on Friday along and ahead of a cold front. High pressure will then build across the region bringing mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure centered over the central Great Lakes this morning will drift east across New York State tonight providing a period of tranquil weather and light winds. Light northerly flow today on the east side of the high will keep the cooler Canadian low level flow locked in place, along with just enough boundary layer moisture to produce some lake clouds south of Lake Ontario, mainly along and north of the east-west portion of I-90 from the Niagara Frontier east to southern Oswego County including the lower Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes region. This northerly flow will also be responsible for keeping daytime highs a few degrees below seasonal norms. Any lingering lake induced cloud cover will dissipate tonight owed to a weak southerly return flow developing as the center of the high moves east into eastern NY through the overnight. Despite light winds and high pressure drifting overhead, weak warm advection developing aloft will be responsible for an area of mid and upper level clouds moving across the area overnight, thus limiting better radiational cooling conditions and keeping temperatures from otherwise tanking. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will drift east across New England Thursday, providing a dry and partly to mostly sunny day with light winds and temperatures near average. Later Thursday night through Friday, a mid level trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec, with the southern edge of the trough clipping the Great Lakes region. An associated cold front will move east across the area and bring a chance of a few light showers, with the best chance of anything measurable across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Model guidance continues to trend weaker and drier with this system over the past few days, with another southern stream system now expected to remain un-phased across the lower Ohio Valley and preventing deep moisture from advecting north to our latitude. Precipitation type will be mainly rain, although some wet snow may mix in across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario with little or no accumulation. The limited precip Friday will end from northwest to southeast Friday night with the passage of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Saturday, then drift to the Mid Atlantic states by Sunday. This will support a mainly dry weekend with seasonable temperatures. A weak cold front will move east across the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday and may support a few light showers with minimal impact. Rain may mix with a little wet snow across higher terrain. Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by Tuesday and Wednesday with the timing and track of the next system. A mid level closed low is forecast to move out of the 4-corners region and head northeast across the nation, with a surface low approaching the eastern Great Lakes later Tuesday or Wednesday with up to 24 hours of timing difference showing in ensemble and operational model guidance. While there is timing uncertainty, this system appears to be a warm rain system with minimal chances of winter weather on the busy travel days leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday. Model trends continue to suggest a pattern change unfolding thereafter with a trend towards colder and more wintry weather just after Thanksgiving. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through daybreak, with some low VFR (030- 050) decks possible across the counties lining the central and southeastern shores of Lake Ontario (including KROC). High pressure over the central Great Lakes will drift east into western NY by late this afternoon. This will keep a cool northerly flow locked in place today on the east side of the high, along with just enough boundary layer moisture to generate some lake clouds south of Lake Ontario, mainly along and north of the east-west portion of I-90 from the Niagara Frontier east to southern Oswego County including the lower Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes region. These low level decks are expected to be in the high-end MVFR to low VFR (025-040) range and mainly impact KROC/KIAG this morning through early to mid afternoon, with confidence highest for KROC to see MVFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions conditions elsewhere. Widespread VFR flight conditions tonight with just some warm advection mid and upper level decks moving through the region overnight. Outlook... Thursday...Mainly VFR. Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with rain showers likely. Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR CIGS with a slight chance of a shower. && .MARINE... High pressure drifting east across the lower Great Lakes region will provide a period of light winds and negligible waves through Thursday. Winds will then gradually increase Thursday night as the pressure gradient begins to tighten between exiting high pressure to the east and a cold front approaching from the west. Winds will peak on Friday on the lower Great Lakes just ahead of the cold front with the possibility for a period of small craft headlines across the central and eastern portions of Lake Ontario Friday through Friday evening. High pressure then builds across the lower Great Lakes in the wake of the cold frontal passage with no more than some light chop at times this weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM