431
FXUS61 KBUF 160107
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
807 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass just north of the area tonight, with showers
and thunderstorms moving from west to east into this evening. The
rain will taper off later this evening following the passage of a
cold front. The low will continue to strengthen over New England
tonight through Sunday, producing gusty winds across the eastern
Great Lakes. Colder air behind the system will also bring lake
effect snow showers southeast of the lakes Sunday through Monday,
and some upslope snow for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario
with light to locally moderate accumulations.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface low over Georgian Bay will move towards central/northern New
England through the overnight. Attendant wavy warm front currently
pushing through the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region
with widespread showers with an embedded rumble of thunder or two.
Back across western NY, reinvigorated convection has moved back into
the region ahead of a cold front just off to the west, with most of
the thunderstorm activity confined to the Southern Tier closer the
NY/PA border. The front will move across the forecast area this
evening with strong cold air advection in its wake. The front will
be on the coat tails of an exiting low level jet max and gusty winds
are expected behind the front as it tracks eastward. Wind gusts will
average 30 to 40 mph, however there are low probabilities that wind
gusts could reach 45 mph from the Lake Erie shoreline across the
Niagara Frontier and along the southern shore of Lake Ontario
tonight. Winds are expected to weaken some overnight, however they
will remain elevated (25-35 mph) into Sunday morning. Moisture will
pull away from the region as the low moves into northern New England
late tonight. Upslope showers with lake enhancement will support
showers lingering across the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill
region. Rain will transition to snow showers across the higher
terrain approaching daybreak. Little to no accumulation is expected.

The mid-level trough and closed 500mb low will dig into the
Northeast Sunday. Northwest flow will continue to usher in cool air
across the forecast area with 850mb temperatures decreasing to -9C
to -7C by Sunday afternoon. Steepening lapse rates and an associated
PV anomaly will support gusty winds across the region. Wind gusts of
35 to 45 mph are possible Sunday afternoon with the strongest wind
gusts from Monroe to Oswego counties and near the lakeshores. Lake
effect snow showers are expected east of the Lakes, with the main
focus across the western Southern Tier and the Eastern Lake Ontario
region. Snow showers are expected to develop between lake effect
bands through the afternoon. Surface temperatures will be marginal
through the day with mid to upper 30s across the lake plains to the
low 30s across the higher terrain. Sudden reductions in visibility
are possible in any snow showers. Accumulating snow will be focused
on the higher terrain with 1-2" possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
By Sunday evening a cold west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow
(850 mb temps of -8C to -10C) will be firmly entrenched across the
Lower Great Lakes...and this in tandem with upstream connections to
Lake Huron/Georgian Bay will support multiple bands of lake effect
snow east-southeast and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The
short term guidance suite generally suggests that the most
persistent snows off Lake Erie should lie somewhere between
Chautauqua/Cattaraugus counties and northwestern PA...while those
off Lake Ontario should be somewhere across the Orleans-Ontario
county corridor...though some uncertainty still lingers with the
exact placement of the bands as these may be moving around some over
time. Further east...some upsloping should also lead to some snow
across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks.
In all of the above cases...fresh snowfall accums appear to be on
the order of a few inches...with little snow falling outside of the
main areas of lake enhancement and upsloping. Otherwise we can
expect a colder night (lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s) with still-
windy conditions (with possible gusts to 40-45 mph along the south
shore of Lake Ontario) early gradually subsiding as we push through
the night.

Monday through Tuesday the large-scale flow will become more
westerly again...with our airmass gradually warming aloft as high
pressure and drier air over the Ohio Valley builds northeastward and
across our region. This will result in the lake snows lifting a bit
further northward and gradually diminishing from west to east
through this time...though some lingering weak lake effect snow and
rain showers may linger through late Tuesday afternoon east-
southeast of Lake Ontario. Expect the lake snows to generally
produce another inch or two both Monday and Monday night...with
their expected movement/weakening nature and increasingly marginal
daytime temperatures on Monday likely helping to keep these from
being much more than a nuisance. Some additional upslope snows will
also be possible on Monday east of Lake Ontario...though any accums
from these should also be minor.

By later Tuesday another wave of low pressure will be making its way
across the Ohio Valley...with a leading slug of warm air advection
bringing an increase in clouds and possibly a few light rain or snow
showers to the Southern Tier as it weakens and slides by to our
south later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Aside from this and the
diminishing lake effect...the Monday-Tuesday period should otherwise
be dry...with the gradual warming of our airmass allowing highs to
mostly climb back into the mid 30s to lower 40s by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Behind Tuesday night`s weak system...high pressure looks to build
across our region and bring a return to dry weather for Wednesday
and possibly Thursday. Model guidance then diverges markedly on the
handling of the next system lifting northeast out of the southern
Plains states and toward our region during the last couple days of
this period...however in general this notably warmer system should
bring increased probabilities for plain rain Friday and Saturday...
along with temperatures climbing to a bit above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LLWS conditions possible across western NY through 03-04Z, before
cold front moves through with stronger winds off the deck mixing
to the surface.

Impactful period for aviation tonight through Sunday as low pressure
moves north of the region overnight, then slows down and strengthens
over New England as the mid/upper level trough becomes negatively
tilted. Otherwise, a warm front and strong LLJ moving through the
Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region this evening supporting
widespread showers and a rumble of thunder or two across that
region. Trailing cold front just off to our west and will move
across western NY this evening, and north-central NY later tonight.
Strong cold air advection and gusty winds will be found across the
region in the wake of the frontal passage. Widespread showers will
end from west to east overnight, with lingering upslope/lake
enhanced activity across the region later tonight.

A mix of IFR/MVFR conditions found across the forecast area ahead of
the cold front this evening. Flight conditions will improve to
MVFR/low-end VFR behind the cold front by the early overnight south
of Lake Ontario, while IFR hangs on across the North Country through
later tonight.

As colder air moves into the region rain showers will transition
over snow showers, first across the higher terrain Sunday morning,
then across the remainder of the area Sunday afternoon as colder air
continues to deepen across the region. Areas of flight restrictions
will be most likely in areas of more persistent northwesterly flow
lake effect and upslope snow showers (MVFR/localized IFR),
especially in and around the KJHW/KROC terminals. CIGS overall will
mainly range from MVFR to low VFR.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...MVFR/local IFR with lake effect snow
showers southeast of the lakes and upslope snow showers across
higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with scattered light lake effect rain/wet snow
showers southeast of the lakes.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Deepening low pressure will pass just north of Lake Ontario
overnight, with this low then deepening further over New England
Sunday before reaching the Canadian Maritimes Monday. Southwesterly
winds will continue to increase through the evening before veering
to the west-northwest and ramping up significantly overnight through
Sunday. Lower end gales are expected on Lake Ontario late tonight
through Sunday night, with high-end Small Craft Advisory conditions
on Lake Erie as outlined below. Elevated winds and high end
Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue on both Lakes
Monday before high pressure begins to build into the Great Lakes
Tuesday with diminishing winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Monday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK/JM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK/JM