025
FXUS61 KBUF 180559
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1259 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light lake effect snow showers will linger this morning
southeast of Lake Ontario from Wayne to southern Oswego County,
otherwise dry weather will return today with less wind than the past
few days. Weak low pressure will then pass south of the region
tonight and may spread some light rain and wet snow across the
Southern Tier with little or no accumulation. High pressure will
then build into the Great Lakes with dry weather and a gradual
warming trend Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow continues to be weak and poorly organized southeast
of Lake Ontario early this morning, with lowering inversion heights
now keeping the cloud bearing layer too warm for dendritic crystal
growth. Expect a few more flurries and light snow showers across
Wayne, Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties through this morning,
but any additional accumulation will be less than an inch.

Otherwise, dry weather returns today as a narrow ridge of surface
high pressure builds east across the eastern Great Lakes.
Diminishing gradient will allow for much less wind than the past few
days, with highs running about 5F below average for mid November.

Tonight, mainly dry weather will continue for most of the area as
high pressure drifts east across southern Ontario. A weakening wave
of low pressure and mid level shortwave will move from the Ohio
Valley to the Mid Atlantic tonight. Most of the precip with this
feature will remain south of the area across PA where deeper
moisture and stronger frontogensis is found. Some light precip on
the northern edge of the system may cross the western Southern Tier
for a few hours during the mid to late evening with a mix of light
rain and wet snow of little consequence. Dry weather will return
areawide before daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the central Great Lakes Wednesday will drift east
across New York State Wednesday night, then into New England on
Thursday providing a period of tranquil weather and light winds.
Light northerly flow Wednesday will veer southerly by Thursday as
the center of the high moves east of the area. This will be
reflected in our temperatures as daytime highs still a few degrees
below normal on Wednesday increase to near seasonal norms on
Thursday with the light southerly return flow in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure over northern Ontario Thursday night will slide east
into central Quebec Friday while sending an attendant cold front
through western and northcentral NY Friday. This will bring the
likelihood for a round of mainly light rain showers to the area late
Thursday night into Friday. Cold front settles south of the region
Friday night with a cooler airmass moving into the region in the
wake of the fropa. A few lake effect rain and snow showers may
linger Friday night into Saturday southeast of the Lakes with
cyclonic flow overhead and a cool northwesterly low level flow in
place, otherwise increasing subsidence and drier air associated with
high pressure building in from the west is expected to provide
mainly dry weather for the upcoming weekend. Low pressure moving
east along the U.S./Canadian border may bring the next better chance
of showers for the tail end of the period, dependent on track and
timing.

Temperatures will be seasonable through the period, although will
rise a bit above normal Friday just ahead of the cold frontal
passage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few light lake effect snow showers and flurries will linger
southeast of Lake Ontario this morning in a band from near KSDC to
KSYR with MVFR CIGS/VSBY. Areas of MVFR CIGS in stratus will
continue this morning across the Southern Tier. CIGS in most areas
will improve to VFR this afternoon with some lake effect clouds
lingering southeast of the lakes.

Tonight, dry weather and VFR will prevail for most areas. Weakening
low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic, and
the northern edge of the precip shield may produce a little light
rain and wet snow along with MVFR CIGS across the Southern Tier for
a few hours late evening through the early overnight. If this
materializes, it will end before daybreak Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with rain showers likely.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR CIGS with a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.MARINE...
Deep low pressure over the the Canadian Maritimes will continue to
move away from the region, with winds continuing to diminish from
west to east today. Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger on
Lake Ontario through midday before high pressure builds east across
the Great Lakes tonight through Wednesday with a return to light
winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock