Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
376 FXUS61 KBUF 192347 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 647 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fair weather and variable amounts of cloudiness will remain across our region through Thursday...before weak low pressure tracking across James Bay brings some light rain to our region late Thursday night and Friday. Progressively milder air out ahead of this system will give way to more seasonable temperatures later Friday and Friday night following the passage of its trailing cold front...with high pressure then building across our region this weekend and providing us with mainly dry weather and continued seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure draped across our region this evening will only slowly drift eastward overnight and Thursday...while providing our region with continued fair dry weather through this period. While there will still be some lingering lower clouds across portions of the North Country this evening...weak warm air advection and a passing shortwave will otherwise help to escort a swath of mid and high-level cloudiness across the area from west to east tonight. This will help to minimize radiational cooling tonight...save for portions of the North Country where early evening clearing will allow for temperatures to drop back into the teens early, before rising later tonight. Surface high pressure will then slip to the east during Thursday, with a light southerly flow in place across our region. With mid and upper level moisture temporarily thinning out following tonight`s shortwave and shot of warm advection...there should be a period of increased sunshine before the next system begins approaching later in the day. Otherwise our gradual warming trend will continue...with highs ranging from the upper 30s-mid 40s east of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 40s in most other locations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A northern jet shortwave diving down a southern Hudson Bay closed low will swing a trough across southern Canada, clipping the Great Lakes region. A cold front, from an area of low pressure near southern Hudson Bay, will cross our region Friday afternoon and evening. Overall synoptic moisture is not great with this system, but this front will bring chances for rain showers, with the greatest chances east of Lake Ontario which will lie closer to the better lift associated with the trough to the north. While precipitation with the northern branch feature will taper off Friday night, a southern branch shortwave will bring another round of rain across the Ohio Valley Friday night and into Saturday. For now, this system appears to remain just to our south, but if models continue to trend northward with this feature...light rain will become possible for the southern portions of our region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will drop across our region Sunday and Monday with a period of mainly fair weather. There will be another shortwave passing across southern Canada Sunday night that may bring a little snow or rain to the North Country. The next region-wide system to impact us will arrive from the desert Southwest. A closed low will open up early in the week...reaching our region Tuesday and into Wednesday with mainly plain rain as daytime temperatures will run in the 40s...while overnight lows drop back into the mid to upper 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A narrow swath of lingering low (IFR-level) clouds extending from the Saint Lawrence Valley southwestward into portions of the North Country may briefly affect the KART terminal this evening. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as surface high pressure slowly drifts from our region out across New England. Outlook... Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday....Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure passing across the Lower Great Lakes will maintain light winds and minimal waves tonight and Thursday. Winds will then gradually increase Thursday night as the pressure gradient begins to tighten between exiting high pressure to the east and a cold front approaching from the west. Winds will peak on Friday just ahead of the cold front...with the possibility for a period of small craft headlines across the central and eastern portions of Lake Ontario Friday through Friday evening. High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes in the wake of the cold frontal passage...with no more than some light chop expected at times this weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR/Thomas NEAR TERM...JJR/Thomas SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...AR/JJR MARINE...JJR/Thomas