242
FXUS61 KBUF 102341
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
741 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and cloudy through tonight. After this, high pressure will
build in resulting in dry weather and a warming trend through
Thursday. A cold front will move through on Friday, resulting in
some showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stacked low pressure across New Brunswick province in Canada
will maintain a cyclonic flow aloft through tonight. With 850mb
temperatures around +4C, the northwest flow will result in some
lake effect clouds. Any subtle shortwaves embedded in the flow
will have the potential to produce some light showers or
sprinkles, but the vast majority of the time will be rain free.

Difficult cloud cover forecast tonight into Tuesday, since
despite the cool air aloft the flow will weaken which should
allow for some breaks in the cloud cover. Eventually, drier air
will work in and erode the cloud cover, but tonight it will be
difficult to pin point the location and timing of breaks in the
cloud cover. Any prolonged breaks across the Southern Tier would
allow for some river valley fog to develop.

Temperatures will be below normal. Lows will range from the mid
40s to lower 50s tonight. Highs Tuesday will be warmer than
today, but with 850mb temps only rising to +5C expect
temperatures to still top out in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad ridge of surface high pressure will build across the eastern
third of CONUS Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This will
bring fair weather to the region and mostly clear skies during this
period. Seasonably warm on Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid
70s.

A shortwave will pass by well to the north on Thursday, meanwhile
the surface high will slide off the Atlantic coast. This will lead
to an increasing southwesterly flow which will push afternoon
temperatures into the 80s at most locations Thursday. For the most
part, the shortwave will be too far north but there will be a slight
chance of afternoon showers inland from the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The weather briefly turns more active for the end of the week and to
start the long term period. A trough will track across the region
Thursday night into Friday. A cold front associated with an area of
low pressure well to the north in Canada will track toward and
across the area. As this cold front tracks toward and across the
area, another sfc low will track northeast along the front.

Shower chances increase through Thursday night and into Friday as
the trough, cold front and sfc low approach from the west. A warm
sector out ahead of the cold front will help to increase
instability, with the potential for some showers and storms out
ahead of the front. The showers will become better organized and
increase in coverage Friday morning as the sfc low approaches. The
sfc low looks like it should become a bit stronger as a shortwave
trough tracks into the area. Thunderstorms will also be possible out
ahead of and along the cold front as it tracks east. Model guidance
as of now indicates there could be some heavier rainfall with the
showers on Friday as the sfc low and front pass across the area.
Showers are expected to taper off from west to east during the
afternoon hours with most of WNY dry by around lunchtime. Timing
will need to be monitored in the coming days as upstream development
will certainly cause changes to timing/speed of the systems.

A building ridge and large sfc high pressure system will start to
move in by Friday night with fair and pleasant conditions expected
through at least Sunday night as both features center over and then
shift east of the region.

There is still a lot of uncertainty among guidance for the next
potential for showers as some models are slower with the ridge
moving out. As of now it looks like the next chance for some showers
will be early next week on Monday.

Temperatures for the long term period will be mostly near to
slightly above normal for Friday and Saturday. As the ridge
continues to build into the region and the sfc highs shifts east,
the temperatures will warm to above normal with highs on Monday
reaching at least 10 degrees above normal as it looks right now. The
passing cold front on Friday wont be accompanied by too much cold
air and the incoming ridge moderates the temperatures within the
airmass fairly quickly.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cool, cyclonic flow aloft will result in widespread stratus with
mainly BKN-OVC025-035 through tonight at most terminals.

KJHW will see cigs a bit lower closer to 1500 feet, and there is a
risk for fog and IFR or lower flight conditions if cloud breaks
develop. Confidence in this happening is low as a solid overcast is
more likely to persist.

Improving conditions Tuesday, with clouds lifting and scattering out
during the day. Mainly VFR, with high pressure and light winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR.

Thursday night and Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms
likely.

Friday night and Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds will diminish tonight. More favorable winds and
waves for boating will return by the middle of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Apffel/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/TMA