980
FXUS61 KBUF 011901
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
201 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass south of the area and spread accumulating
snow across the entire region late tonight through midday Tuesday.
Snow accumulation will be relatively minor, but the snow will peak
in coverage and intensity for the Tuesday morning commute. The snow
will rapidly taper off from west to east Tuesday afternoon, with
limited lake effect snow showers adding another light coating of
snow south of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Tuesday evening. A strong
cold front will cross the area Wednesday night through Thursday
morning, bringing the next round of accumulating snow to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Radar imagery showing a few lake effect flurries southeast of Lake
Ontario early this afternoon. These will end by mid afternoon as
boundary layer flow breaks down as surface high pressure briefly
builds over the eastern Great Lakes. Elsewhere, any sunny breaks
will fade behind thickening clouds ahead of the next system.

Our attention then turns to a synoptic scale system that will spread
accumulating snow into the entire region late tonight through the
first half of Tuesday.

A partially phased mid level trough will advance east across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday. The main weak surface low will
remain well south of the area, with just a weak inverted surface
trough and baroclinic wave passing through the eastern Great Lakes.
Despite the weak surface features, forcing for ascent from right
entrance region jet dynamics and a low/mid level differential
temperature advection regime and associated frontogenesis will
support a period of widespread light to borderline moderate snow
across the entire region.

Snow will spread into Western NY after midnight, reaching the
eastern Lake Ontario region before daybreak. The bulk of the
accumulating snow will be from the pre-dawn hours through mid
morning for Western NY, and daybreak through early afternoon east of
Lake Ontario. NBM and other blended model suites continue to suggest
this will be a relatively minor snowfall event, with 2-4" total in
most areas and some local 5" amounts across the higher terrain of
the Southern Tier and southern Tug Hill region. Many areas may come
up a little short of the 4" advisory criteria, but the fact that
this event peaks during the morning commute is the compelling
reason for the Winter Weather Advisory based on travel impact.

Synoptic snow will rapidly taper off from west to east late morning
through early afternoon. There will be some limited lake response
south of the lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening that may add
another inch or so of accumulation to the Chautauqua Ridge off Lake
Erie, and the Rochester area/western Finger Lakes off Lake Ontario.
Any lake effect will mostly end by late Tuesday night as a ridge of
high pressure and associated subsidence/dry air build into the
eastern Great Lakes.

There will be no wind to speak of in this event, with no
blowing/drifting snow issues. Synoptic snow does tend to feature
smaller "grainy" snowflakes that result in more slippery road
conditions than lake effect snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main focus during this period will be a burst of heavy snow
accompanied by strong winds associated with a strong cold front that
will plow across the area later Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Expect a general 1-2" with the frontal passage, however a quick 2-4"
will be possible northeast of the lakes with some lake enhancement to
boost the totals a bit. Good news is, the worst of this is expected
to come through the area just prior to bulk of the Thursday morning
commute, especially across the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas.
The Watertown area may not be so lucky. Of note, if this boundary is
just a little slower, this may have larger implications on the
Buffalo and Rochester metro areas. Nonetheless, be prepared for near
white-out conditions when this boundary moves through your area.

Accumulating lake effect snow will develop behind the cold front as
winds veer west Thursday morning in the wake of the boundary, then
northwest Thursday afternoon. Main thrust of the lake effect will be
Thursday morning with a few to several inches possible east of the
lakes. Highest amounts at this time look to be east of Lake Ontario
with a better upstream connection becoming established across Lake
Ontario. Lingering moisture in the immediate wake of the system will
also produce some lighter accumulating snows across the favored
westerly upslope flow terrain areas first half of Thursday. Deeper
moisture exiting as the trough pulls east combined with increasing
subsidence associated with high pressure ridging in from the Ohio
Valley will allow much of the area to dry out Thursday afternoon
through Friday, however a cold northwest flow crossing over the
lakes will likely keep localized snow showers going southeast of the
lakes, especially southeast of Lake Ontario where an additional inch
or two will be possible Thursday afternoon. Winds will gradually
back west then south through Thursday night as the center of the
high slides by to our south, with any weakening lake activity making
a sweep from south to north across the area and eventually into
Canada by Friday morning in a very weakened state. High pressure is
then expected to bring a dry finish to the work week.

Temperatures will be below normal through the period, especially
Thursday and Friday in the wake of the strong cold fropa with highs
mainly in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry weather may persist into the start of Friday night as high
pressure departs east off the Atlantic Coast. Some lake effect snow
may start to develop northeast of the lakes later Friday night and
Saturday as southwesterly flow becomes better aligned ahead of an
approaching mid level trough and associated strong surface cold
front. Cold front crosses the region Saturday night with yet another
reinforcing blast of cold air in its` wake. Winds veer northwest
Sunday with any lingering lake snow shifting southeast of the lakes.
Most model consensus then builds high pressure in across the region
Sunday night into Monday with most of the area dry for the start of
the new work week, other than some lingering northwest flow lighter
snow showers southeast of the lakes Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect clouds will continue to produce areas of MVFR CIGS this
afternoon southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The last of the
lake effect flurries with VFR/MVFR VSBY southeast of Lake Ontario
will end by mid afternoon as high pressure builds over the eastern
Great Lakes.

A weak wave of low pressure will pass south of the region late
tonight through Tuesday. The associated mid level trough and forcing
north of the low track will bring widespread snow and IFR VSBY to
Western NY late tonight through Tuesday morning, and east of Lake
Ontario from early morning to early afternoon Tuesday. Expect the
lowest VSBY to be 0.75SM to 1SM in the steadiest snow, with lower
end MVFR CIGS.

The snow will rapidly taper off from west to east late morning
through early afternoon Tuesday, leaving behind scattered light snow
showers and mainly VFR/MVFR VSBY with widespread MVFR CIGS. Local
lake effect snow showers may continue to produce local IFR VSBY
through the evening south of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario near KJHW
and KROC.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday...IFR in snow, especially
east/northeast of the lakes. Improving later Thursday.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Saturday...MVFR/local IFR with chance of snow showers, especially
east of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes this afternoon
with winds and waves quickly subsiding. Winds will stay relatively
light at 15 knots or less through early Wednesday morning.

A strong cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes Wednesday
night. Southwest winds will increase Wednesday ahead of the front,
then veer to west and northwest behind the front late Wednesday
night and Thursday, producing a round of high end Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ001>006-008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock