699
FXUS61 KBUF 270624
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
124 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold cyclonic flow across the Lower Lakes will support locally
heavy lake effect snows east and then southeast of the lakes today
through Friday night, along with gusty winds which lasts through the
day Friday. Lake snows will begin to diminish Friday night into
Saturday as high pressure brings a brief period of dry weather
before another system brings wind and mixed precipitation by
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE OFF BOTH LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...

A cold cyclonic flow across the lakes will continue to support lake
effect snows northeast of the lakes overnight into early this
morning. As winds veer to the west and then eventually the northwest
today, lakes snows will become focus east and then southeast of both
lakes through Friday. Additionally...a combination of a tight
pressure gradient across the Lower Lakes and a strong LLJ (+45
knots) aloft will support surface wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, and up
to 50 mph closer to the lake shores. The strong winds will result in
some blowing/drifting snow in lake effect areas, although the
wet/slushy nature of the snow will help to mitigate this to some
extent.

Off Lake Erie...

Lake snows will remain focused northeast of the lake impacting the
Buffalo Metro area overnight, then shift south across the Southtowns
by this morning. As boundary layer flow further veers to the west
then northwest by mid-morning, lake snows will concentrate across
the higher terrain inland from the lake, including the Boston Hills,
western Wyoming County, and the ridges of the western Southern Tier.
With the added help from upstream support (Lake Huron) and strong
flow aloft it will carry lake snows all the way inland into Allegany
County where decent accumulations is anticipated through Friday.

Overall...snowfall totals of 12-20" will be possible within the most
persistent snows, with locally higher amounts in spots.


Off LAKE ONTARIO...

A disorganized Lake Erie supported band of rain or a mix of rain-
snow (higher terrain) will continue overnight into today northeast
of the lake. That said...later on today (late afternoon) or even
this evening, a secondary front will drop south towards Lake Ontario
which will intensify lake snows off Lake Ontario. It will be at this
point that snowfall rates will rapidly pick up to 1-2" per hour as
the band begins to drop southward into Tug Hill region. As the full
fetch of the lake comes into play and then boosted by upstream
connections snowfall rates may even approach 3" per hour tonight as
flow veers to west then northwest as we move into Friday.
Eventually...lake snows off Lake Ontario will settle across Wayne,
N. Cayuga, and S. Oswego Friday.

One thing to note...there is some indication we may see the band off
Lake Ontario as it pushes south impact the `entire` south shore
tonight with a few inches before re-organizing again across the
counties mentioned above on Friday.

Storm snowfall totals of 12 to 22 inches are expected across
the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and 8 to 12 inches
for the western foothills of the Adirondacks. Marginal
temperatures will likely keep accumulations much lower for the
low elevations of Jefferson County close to Lake Ontario and the
Saint Lawrence River, perhaps only a few slushy inches. Later
in the event southeast of Lake Ontario, around 10 to 14 inches
is possible for portions of eastern Wayne, northern Cayuga, and
southern Oswego counties, where the lake band will become the
most organized southeast of the lake.

Otherwise...areas not impacted by the main lake effect bands will
see periodic snow showers with some minor accumulations and brief
reduced visibilities through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Lake snows will begins to weaken and diminish Friday night as
synoptic moisture begins to deplete and high pressure builds
into the Lower Lakes.

Saturday will feature mainly dry weather with any lingering
lakes snow southeast of the lakes ending through the morning.
Snowfall amounts southeast of the lakes should be limited to a
coating to an inch for Saturday morning.

Temperatures for both Friday and Saturday should range from the
upper 20s over the higher terrain to the mid 30s for the lower
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After a brief break in the lake effect snow southeast of the lakes,
the potential for snow will increase from west to east through
Saturday night as an area of low pressure tracks closer to the
region.

The area of low pressure will track through the central Great Lakes
and to southern Ontario on Sunday. The system will then track across
Quebec on Monday. This system will bring a brief warm up as it
passes northwest of the area, with snow changing to rain for the
lower elevations and a mixture of rain/snow for the higher terrain
during the day on Sunday. The widespread synoptic rain/snow will taper
off Sunday night, and transition to lake enhanced/effect snow into
Monday morning southeast of the lakes. Snow showers off the lakes
will taper off through the afternoon on Monday, providing a brief
break in the active stretch.

Tuesday and beyond...all indications are it will turn somewhat
colder with a chance of some snow as a southern stream system passes
to our south. An even colder airmass may visit the Lower Lakes late
in the week but that is way to far out to have any reasonable
confidence. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect will impact terminals northeast of the lakes to include
KBUF and KART with IFR-LIFR conditions at times through this morning.
As flow veers to the west and later on northwest terminals east and
southeast of the lakes will then see impacts (IFR-LIFR) from the
lake effect snows to include KROC to KFZY, and also KJHW through
tonight.

It will also be continued very windy today with gusts up to 35 to 45
knots across area terminals.

Otherwise...outside of the main lake effect terminals will see a mix
of VFR-MVFR conditions, with periodic IFR conditions within
heavier snow showers.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Heavier lake effect
snow with IFR/LIFR southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Very
windy.

Saturday...Lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes with
local MVFR/IFR early, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Sunday...MVFR with a rain/wet snow mix. Very windy.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in limited lake effect snow east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
A deep low pressure will move slowly east across Quebec over the
next few days, producing an extended period of gales on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
found on the Niagara River and Saint Lawrence River. Winds will
finally diminish below gales Friday night, then quickly drop off
Saturday as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Another strong low pressure system is forecast to move across the
central Great Lakes Sunday. This may bring another round of gales to
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Lakeshore Flood Warning remains in effect for Lake Erie
lakeshores for a seiche, of which has peaked, with subsequent
rises continuing through this morning. Levels may again
approach 8 feet at Buffalo.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ001>007-010>012-019-
     085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ001-
     002.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ004-005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ006.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ007-
     008-012-019-020-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ010-019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ010-011.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AR