885
FXUS61 KBUF 202232
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
532 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue today, before low pressure tracks across
James Bay bringing some light rain late tonight and Friday. Milder
air ahead of this system will give way to more seasonable
temperatures later Friday and Friday night following the passage of
its trailing cold front. High pressure will build across our region
this weekend and provide us with mainly dry weather and continued
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly sunny skies will continue across western and north-central NY
today. Surface high pressure centered across New England this
afternoon will move off the east coast tonight. A cold front will
approach from the Ohio Valley overnight, and a southerly flow will
increase across the region. Clouds will increase in coverage from to
west to east.

Surface low pressure will move across James Bay on Friday. Upper
level support and deep moisture will be well to north, however an
associated cold front will move across the forecast area. Scattered
showers are possible, with the greatest (however still low) chance
east of Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence Valley late tonight
through Friday morning. Further south, mostly dry weather is
expected, however some hi-res guidance shows widely scattered
showers across the higher terrain of western NY Friday afternoon.
Southwest winds will increase ahead of the front, especially
northeast of the Lakes Friday morning into early afternoon.
Southwest wind gusts up to 25 mph are possible. Elsewhere, wind gust
up to 20 mph are possible. Warmer Friday, with high temperatures in
the upper 40s to low 50s, mid 50s in the Genesee Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move into the forecast area for the start of the
weekend. Dry and cooler weather is expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Surface high pressure moves to the south Sunday as a
system across northern Canada drags a cold front across the Great
Lakes region. A sharpening upper level trough and 250mb jet streak
will move across the region, however moisture is lacking with this
system. There is a low to medium (25-45%) chance of rain and snow
showers east of Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence Valley. Showers
may linger east of Lake Ontario Sunday evening, however mostly dry
weather is expected across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An exiting mid-level trough over New England Monday, will allow for
brief ridging to slide overhead before the next trough over the
Central Plains lifts northeast towards the Great Lakes Tuesday. This
trough will merge with another trough sliding east across the
Northern Plains and Upper Mid-West Tuesday, before pivoting across
the central and eventually eastern Great Lakes by the Thanksgiving
holiday.

Translating this pattern down to the surface, surface high pressure
will dominate overhead Monday supporting a period of dry weather
regionwide. Then Tuesday, the aforementioned trough, will bring an
organized area of low pressure to slide northeast across the Central
Plains, before transferring its energy to another area of low
pressure over southern Manitoba. All in all, this will result in a
frontal passage across the region mid-week. Elevated forecast
uncertainty this far out as model guidance packages continue to
have their discrepancies with timing and track of the system.
All in all, this system will bring another round of widespread
rainfall to the region.

Looking further into the future for the Thanksgiving holiday and
into the weekend, cold air will filter into the region in the wake
of the frontal passage mid-week. Overall, widespread rain should
transition to lake effect snow showers east of Lakes Erie and
Ontario by Thanksgiving morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFs mainly VFR flight conditions are found, but a
wealth of MVFR clouds upstream will build across the TAF sites of
WNY between 02Z and 08Z...with these clouds likely to lower to IFR
(KJHW) across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier.

Delayed flight reductions east of Lake Ontario (KART) with VFR
flight conditions likely to persist through 12Z. However, closer to
deeper moisture and lift there will be chances for a few showers,
generally between 12Z and 18Z east of Lake Ontario along with the
spreading of MVFR ceiling heights east of Lake Ontario. These
IFR/MVFR ceiling heights are likely to linger through the end of the
00Z TAF cycle.

There will be a southwest flow tomorrow, with light wind gusts into
the lower 20 knot range across the airfields.

Outlook...

Friday night...widespread MVFR ceiling heights to start, with some
improvement to VFR through the night.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday....Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower.

Tuesday...Rain. MVFR/IFR is likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure passing across the Lower Great Lakes will
maintain light winds and minimal waves today.

Winds will gradually increase tonight as the pressure gradient
begins to tighten between exiting high pressure to the east and a
cold front approaching from the west, with small craft conditions
likely by Friday morning on the Lakes. Southwest winds Friday
morning will veer to Northwest behind an afternoon frontal passage,
but lacking strong cold air advection there will not be any
significant uptick in gusty winds behind the front Friday night.

High pressure will then build across the lower Great Lakes in the
wake of the cold frontal passage, with no more than some light chop
expected at times this weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...HSK/Thomas