347
FXUS61 KBUF 040003
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
703 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A pair of strong cold fronts will cross the region through
early Thursday, bringing snow showers and bands of locally
heavier lake enhanced snow. The lake snows will start northeast
of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario near Buffalo and Watertown this
evening, then move rapidly south late tonight through Thursday
to areas southeast of both lakes. These bands will produce light
to locally moderate snow accumulations, and gusty winds will
also produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. The coldest
airmass of the winter season will arrive late Thursday through
early Friday with wind chills dropping to at or below zero
Thursday night through early Friday morning. Mainly dry weather
will return by Friday as high pressure briefly builds into the
eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Regional radar shows an area of widespread light to moderate
snow from Lower Michigan to southern Ontario this evening. As of
7PM, weak echos are forming northeast of the Lakes which will
intensify through the overnight hours.

A mid level trough will dig and sharpen across Ontario and Quebec
tonight through Thursday, driving a pair of cold fronts across the
eastern Great Lakes. The cold fronts will become lake enhanced
northeast and east of the lakes, resulting in locally higher
snowfall amounts. The coldest airmass of the young winter season
will arrive late Thursday through early Friday, with wind chills
dropping to at or a little below zero Thursday night through early
Friday morning.

Outside of the main lake effect areas, the pair of cold fronts and
large scale ascent from DPVA and height falls ahead of the trough
will produce a few scattered snow showers with spotty minor
accumulations.

Gusty winds tonight through Thursday will produce blowing and
drifting snow in open areas where fresh snowfall occurs.

Off Lake Erie...

Rapidly rising lake induced equilibrium levels and increasing
synoptic scale convergence over the lake will support rapid band
development this evening northeast of the lake across the Niagara
Frontier. This band of snow will then settle southward across the
Buffalo Metro area and Genesee County through the early overnight,
then push onshore and spread inland across the higher terrain of the
Boston Hills and western Southern Tier before daybreak Thursday.
Lake enhanced upslope snow showers and a meandering band of Lake
Huron lake effect will allow snow showers to continue across the
Southern Tier Thursday, with coverage and intensity slowly
diminishing in the afternoon, before quickly ending Thursday evening
as much drier air builds into the region.

The transient nature of the band will limit accumulation, but still
expect 2-4" with local 5" amounts from the Buffalo Metro area out to
Batavia and then southward across the Boston Hills into the higher
terrain of the western Southern Tier. Much of this will fall in a
short period of time, with 1-2" per hour snowfall rates possible as
the band intensifies.

Off Lake Ontario...

Expect rapid band development over central and northern Jefferson
County around mid evening, with the subsequent band then settling
south to Watertown and Fort Drum overnight. The band of snow will
then move quickly south across the Tug Hill region to Oswego County
by around daybreak Thursday, before settling farther south into
Wayne/Cayuga counties and the Syracuse area during the day Thursday.
The western end of the band will brush the lakeshore occasionally
from eastern Niagara County to the Rochester area. What remains of
this band will move south across the NYS Thruway late afternoon or
evening before falling apart by mid to late evening.

The transient nature of the band will limit accumulations, with 3-5"
expected across central and southern Jefferson County and western
Lewis County tonight through early Thursday. There will likely be a
very small local max of 5-8" on the northwest portion of the Tug
Hill Plateau. Snowfall rates may reach 1-2" per hour at times
overnight. Once the band moves south, expect 2-5" across portions of
Wayne, northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties Thursday. The western
end of the band may produce local 1-3" amounts along the Route 104
corridor in Orleans/Monroe counties.

Given the above expectations, Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued for counties that will be impacted by the lake effect snow.
Amounts are marginal in many areas, but the added impact from
blowing and drifting snow and the fact that much of the snow will
fall in a short period of time justifies an advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday surface-based ridging will slide from eastern New
York to the New England coastline. Associated dry air and
general southerly flow on its backside should result in a dry
and quiet day...save for perhaps a couple lake-driven flurries
or light snow showers across far northwestern Jefferson county.
Friday night the high will depart out to sea...while low
pressure near James Bay pivots its trailing cold front across
the Upper Great Lakes. Out ahead of this next feature the flow
across our region will start to turn more south- southwesterly
as we push through the night...and this may allow for a few more
spotty lake effect snow showers/flurries north-northeast of the
lakes later on in the night. Otherwise...dry weather will
continue to prevail.

Saturday through Sunday the above mentioned surface low and cold
front will slowly make their way further eastward...with the frontal
boundary eventually crossing our region sometime between Saturday
night and Sunday...with the guidance suite still at odds with
respect to its exact timing. With the flow across our region
gradually veering to southwesterly and then westerly over time...
this should result in lake-effect/lake-enhanced snow showers
northeast of the lakes Saturday morning gradually shifting southward
to areas east of the lakes by later Saturday night/Sunday...with the
remainder of the area seeing some scattered synoptically-driven snow
showers in concert with the frontal passage. At this juncture...
accums out of this next round of snow showers look to be light to
modest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday night and Monday the low level flow across our region will
continue to veer to northerly and then northeasterly as Canadian
high pressure settles southeastward across the Lower Great Lakes.
This will result in weakening lake effect snow showers shifting to
areas south of the lakes Sunday night...then diminishing to some
leftover flurries on Monday as low-level ridging builds across our
region and our airmass dries out. Otherwise the much colder airmass
preceding the ridge will result in our coldest 24-hour period of the
season to date...with lows mostly in the 5 to 15 above range (with
readings near zero across the North Country) Saturday night followed
by highs only in the upper teens to lower 20s on Monday.

The surface high will then drift southeast and off the mid-Atlantic
coastline through the remainder of this period...while a pair of
clipper-type systems (the second stronger than the first) make their
way eastward across the Great Lakes. These will generally bring
increasing chances for some light to modest synoptically-driven snow
to our region as we push through midweek along with a modest warming
trend...with the latter also possibly allowing some rain to mix in
with the snow by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly MVFR flight conditions are present across western and north-
central NY tonight. A pair of cold fronts will cross the eastern
Great Lakes through early Thursday. The fronts themselves will
produce a few scattered snow showers and local/brief IFR. More
importantly the passing frontal boundaries will encourage bands of
locally heavier lake effect snow off both lakes.

Off Lake Erie, a band of snow will initially develop near KIAG early
this evening, with the band then settling southward across KBUF
tonight before moving rapidly south into the higher terrain of the
western Southern Tier including KJHW by Thursday morning. The lake
snow will then gradually decrease in coverage and intensity across
the western Southern Tier Thursday before ending Thursday evening.
This band of snow will produce a few hours of IFR/LIFR conditions as
it moves south across the area tonight, with KBUF impacted for
several hours with near minimums. Intensity of snow will back off
Thursday, with local MVFR/IFR across the Southern Tier.

Off Lake Ontario, a band of snow will develop near or just north of
KART this evening, then drift southeast across KART and KGTB
overnight, crossing over the Tug Hill Plateau and Oswego County just
before daybreak Thursday. The band will then settle to the southeast
corner of the lake Thursday from near KSDC to KSYR. This band will
produce local IFR/LIFR conditions tonight including KART and KGTB,
with local IFR/LIFR southeast of Lake Ontario Thursday.

For KROC, the eastern end of the Lake Erie band may produce a very
brief period of IFR overnight, with Lake Ontario lake effect
potentially producing some IFR later Thursday afternoon as the band
settles farther south.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Local IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A pair of cold fronts will cross the lower Great Lakes through early
Thursday. Gusty southwest winds will persist ahead of the fronts
this evening, then veer to west and northwest behind the second
front late tonight and Thursday, producing a round of high end Small
Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ004-005.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for NYZ010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/HSK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock/HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK