045
FXUS61 KBUF 051130
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
630 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Well below normal temperatures will last into the start of next
week, first through the day today with what has been the coldest
airmass of the season thus far, then followed by another shot of
arctic air starting Sunday night. Dry weather is expected for today
as high pressure quickly crosses the region. Snow returns for
Saturday afternoon in the form of lake enhanced/effect ahead of and
with a passing cold front. Another round of more widespread snow is
possible Sunday afternoon/night with a weak passing surface low that
will also have lake enhanced snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today, after a frigid start for most of the area, dry weather
and mostly sunny skies will prevail as high pressure pushes east
of the area. High clouds will start to increase during the
afternoon hours from west to east. Winds will become southerly,
but remain mainly below 10 mph. Temperatures will remain below
normal only reaching from near 20 to near 30 for most locations.


Tonight, dry weather will continue through the night for most areas.
High pressure will push farther east of the area tonight as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. Well out ahead of the cold
front, some snow showers will develop closer to daybreak over and
north of the lakes with cool temperatures and a southerly flow
continuing. Snow showers will start to push closer to the areas
northeast of the lakes by daybreak as winds shift more to the
southwest and as a shortwave trough tracks toward the area.
Temperatures tonight will dip to the low teens to mid 20s for most
of the area, with the coldest temperatures expected for areas east
of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday - Saturday night a cold front will drop into our region
with southwest flow ahead of the front bringing lake enhanced
precipitation. Not a great set-up for lake effect, with just a
narrow ribbon of ambient moisture along the front, marginal
temperatures aloft along with added wind shear. The best chances for
more than an inch of snow accumulation will be the upslope Tug Hill,
where a longer westerly fetch over the Lake, parallel to the front
may bring a couple of inches of snow to the Tug Hill.

Sunday an inverted surface trough will extend into our region from
the Ohio Valley with a shortwave trough aloft passing across our
region. Ascent ahead of this shortwave, combined with low level
convergent lift within the surface trough along with deepening
moisture within the snow dentritic growth zone will bring a period of
snow to our region, mainly from Sunday afternoon through the early
overnight hours. Snow amounts may reach advisory levels in a few
spots with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very cold period is on tap for Monday - Monday night with surface
ridging passing through. A cold day Monday (highs only in the teens
to lower 20s) will promote a cold evening as temperatures nose dive
down into the single digits (and well below zero east of Lake
Ontario). As the surface high advances eastward through the night a
return flow will allow for some moderation in temperature from west
to east.

A series of shortwave troughs Tuesday -  Wednesday with perhaps some
light snow Tuesday before a more amplified shortwave Wednesday brings
more widespread precipitation. NBM 25th-75th percentile spread is
pretty low (less than 5 degrees) for Wednesday afternoon, with
strong likelihood of above freezing temperatures, especially for the
downslope areas. A strong LLJ of 60 knots and the downslope flow
will support temperatures rising towards 40F Wednesday with light
snow changing over to a period of light rain Wednesday.

Behind a cold front Wednesday night a colder airmass will change
precipitation back over to snow...with limited lake effect snow to
follow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Outside of some MVFR CIGs at KART this morning from lingering
lake clouds, VFR flight conditions are expected today through
tonight. MVFR CIGs at KART should clear out within a few hours
of daybreak as southerly flow continues to push lake clouds
north. There is the potential for some MVFR/IFR CIGs during the
second half of tonight for interior portions of the Southern
Tier, including at KJHW, but confidence is low currently. Winds
will shift to southerly today, remaining at or below 10 kts for
most of the area.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Local IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure moving directly over the area early this morning,
winds have weakened below SCA levels. However, as the high pressure
shifts east of the lakes and a cold front approaches from the
northwest, the pressure gradient will increase over the region. This
will result in an increase in winds over the eastern end of Lake
Ontario starting around daybreak this morning. This has resulted in
an extension of SCA for Mexico Bay to the St. Lawrence River.
Conditions are expected to be on the lower end of SCA levels, but
will be present none the less in this zone. Timing on that can be
seen below.

With the cold front approaching and crossing the area from the
northwest, winds will start to increase across both lakes early
Saturday morning, continuing into at least the evening on
Saturday. SCA conditions will be possible during that time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW