137
FXUS61 KBUF 111853
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue east of the Lakes tonight, becoming a
more concentrated singular band as southwest flow aligns through the
night. Through early tomorrow morning several inches of wet snow is
likely in the Buffalo and Niagara Falls Metro areas, as well as
Watertown and communities to the north before warming through the
day changes falling snow over to a cold rain. Mid to late week
warming will change the bulk of the precipitation back to plain rain
as unsettled weather ends just before the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Regional radars display a weakening trend to the lake effect snow
over Western New York, and the moist, cyclonic upslope snow activity
east of Lake Ontario.

After a brief lull with just scattered light snow showers and
flurries, lake effect snow will increase in strength ahead of a
shortwave trough diving through the Central Great Lakes region. As
the northwesterly flow consolidates a singular band of snow is
expected to form off Lake Erie, near Buffalo this evening and then
lifting towards Niagara and Orleans counties through the night. Lake
snows east of Lake Ontario near the Tug will lift northward as well
towards northern Jefferson late tonight.

A brief period of wet, moderate snow will accumulate before a
southerly flow/warm air advection warms the boundary layer
sufficiently for a change over from snow to plain rain tomorrow
morning. A winter weather advisory will be in place northeast of
both lakes to account for this snow activity.

As the shortwave trough passes tomorrow morning the band of lake
effect snow/rain is expected to drop southward of both lakes with a
cold rain for lower terrain, while higher peaks east of both lakes
may still see a little snow mix in with the rain through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the larger and persistent trough over the region starts to shift
east, a shortwave trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes
on Thursday morning. This will cause showers to continue across much
of the area, especially east/southeast of both Lake Erie & Ontario
with lake enhancement/effect expected.  Precipitation will linger
for most of the day on Thursday, with some tapering off of showers
for areas south of Lake Ontario by the late afternoon. With slightly
warmer temperatures compared to earlier in the week, most of the
precipitation is expected to fall as rain. Mixing with and changing
to snow is expected across the higher elevations for Thursday.
Snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected for areas of the
higher terrain, especially across the Tug Hill.

Rain and snow showers will remain primarily east of Lake Ontario
Thursday night into Friday, with a few showers possible south of
the lake. Showers will slowly taper off from west to east as the
lingering trough over the region finally pushes east, and ridging
builds into the area. Any remaining showers will either dissipate or
push east of the area by late Friday evening. Additional snowfall on
Thursday night and Friday should be limited to the higher terrain
east of Lake Ontario and amount to around an inch.

Temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the mid 30s to mid
40s from the higher terrain to the lower elevations respectively,
for both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An amplified pattern to start this period will be impinged upon by
the northern branch of the jet stream, allowing the next storm
system to bear down upon our region by the close of the weekend.

While the weekend will start dry with surface high pressure nearby,
a southerly, mild flow combined with Pacific moisture from the west
will bring light rain across our region Saturday night and Sunday,
followed by a cold front/mid level shortwave trough later Sunday
that will maintain chances for showers through Sunday night through
Monday. As temperatures aloft Monday cool lake enhanced rain and
snow will become possible.

A southern stream closed low over the desert southwest early in the
weekend will open up and advance south of our region Tuesday...with
downstream ridging/dry air likely to end the lake response Monday
night and into Tuesday. However there is still a lot of uncertainty
temporally and spatially with this closed low...lending to a lot of
uncertainty to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS bands of IFR lake effect snow continue downwind of
the lakes, with cyclonic upslope flow snow activity east of Lake
Ontario. Backing winds will condense this snow activity to a
singular concentrated band of snow on a southwest flow this evening,
with the snowband lifting past KBUF towards KIAG...and also lifting
past KART. A mid level shortwave trough, reflected at the surface
will send these snowbands back southward...including KBUF/KROC and
KART just before 12Z, while warming in the mid layers will change
falling snow over to rain...first off Lake Erie just past 12Z, and
later around 15Z east of Lake Ontario. Expect IFR and lower
visibilities and ceiling heights within these bands of lake effect,
with MVFR to VFR flight conditions outside the bands.

Visibilities will improve to close out this TAF cycle with
predominately rain for the TAF sites, though a deck of low end MVFR
to IFR ceiling heights will remain.

Southwest winds tomorrow, especially on the periphery of these lake
effect bands will gust into the low 20 knot range.

Outlook...

Thursday...Areas of MVFR with rain and snow showers likely,
especially southeast and east of the lakes.

Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for rain and snow showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly mixing with
freezing rain east of Lake Ontario at onset.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface low over Quebec will continue to deepen through tonight as
is slowly wobbles to NewFoundland Canada. This will allow for gusty
winds to continue on the Lakes, with winds backing from
northwesterly this afternoon to southwesterly later tonight and
Wednesday. This southwest flow up Lake Erie may reach gale force,
for which a gale warning is in effect through late tonight.
Otherwise small craft advisories will be in place.

Waves are expected to remain 4-feet and greater through Thursday
evening on the eastern Great Lakes, and not until Friday when
surface high pressure approaches the Lower Lakes will winds and
waves fall below small craft conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ001-
     002-010.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
         Thursday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Wednesday
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas