


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
604 FXUS61 KBUF 170557 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 157 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable and dry weather will continue today. Following a mainly quiet start to the weekend, active weather will arrive as two slow- moving systems bring the potential for bouts of beneficial rainfall along with breezy to windy conditions for the later half of the weekend through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure will gradually slide east into New England through tonight. Dry conditions will continue today with increasing cloudiness, as a warm front advances into the region and southerly flow increases. Would not rule out a couple of sprinkles late in the day across western New York, but likely just looking at some virga with plenty of dry air in place at lower levels. Highs will range through the 50s. Probabilities for a few showers increase across western New York tonight, as warm advection continues along with some weak lift and gradual increase in lower level moisture. Rainfall amounts should be light and generally less than a tenth of an inch. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Elongated surface high pressure along the east coast into Saturday will give way to the next weather system. As this system tracks northeast across the Upper Great Lakes, its warm front will push north across the central and lower Great Lakes, though remain north of the forecast area through Saturday morning. While the track remains north of the area, a few stray showers can`t be ruled out across western New York Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the aforementioned surface low, will drag its potent cold front across the central United States Saturday and Saturday night. As the trough axis sweeps across the front, a secondary low will form along the front, near/over southern Lake Michigan Saturday night. As this secondary low strengthens, it will continue to progress northeastward into southern Ontario and Quebec. With the passage of the low to the northwest of the region, expect widespread rain showers/rain to expand eastward throughout the day on Sunday. Along with the rain, some rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out Sunday afternoon where there will be some, though limited amount of shear with the prefrontal trough. Rainfall may be heavy at times as a plume of moisture from the Gulf advects into the region. Expect rainfall amounts of up to an inch possible Sunday and Sunday night. Most recent guidance trends are slower with the approach of the system and its frontal boundaries, resulting in the bulk of the rain expected for the late afternoon/evening for WNY & the evening for the North Country. Aside from the rainfall, should note that this system will also bring some gusty winds to the region. The track of the low continues to track further northwest of the area, supporting lower winds, a slight shift eastward would bring brisker winds. How much the system weakens during the occlusion process, will also play a monumental role on how blustery of a day it will be Sunday. As the low exits northeast, a tertiary surface low will develop either overhead of the region or over Pennsylvania Sunday night and into Monday. Overall, cool cyclonic flow will support lingering showers to persist for the start of the work week. Some of these showers, especially east of the lakes Monday will allow for a lake response. Temperatures for Saturday, behind the passing warm front will warm to the low to mid 70s for WNY and to the mid 60s for the eastern half of the forecast area. Temperatures on Sunday will remain warm for the entire forecast area in the upper 60s over the higher terrain to the mid 70s for the lower elevations. Temperatures for Sunday will be dependent on timing of FROPA, and if it ends up tracking across the region a bit earlier, then cooler temperatures can be expected for WNY. Monday, behind the passing cold front, temperatures will cool to back to near normal, in the mid 50s to near 60 for the entire area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Brief ridging at the surface and aloft will spread across the region Monday night through Tuesday morning, supporting a very brief timeframe of dry weather. A few troughs tracking across the region later Tuesday through the rest of the period will bring a few additional rounds of showers through the rest of the period. With the cooler nature of the passing troughs, showers will also be lake enhanced downwind of both lakes at times. Temperatures for the entire period will remain near to below normal for the entire area. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure over the lower Great Lakes will drift east across New York State today. This feature will maintain widespread VFR flight conditions. Mid and and upper level decks will gradually thicken and lower from west to east across western NY ahead of an approaching warm front this afternoon. Outlook... Tonight...VFR/isolated MVFR with a chance for showers. Saturday...Mainly VFR. Slight Chance of showers. Sunday...IFR/MVFR in showers. Isolated thunder and gusty winds possible across WNY. Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers. && .MARINE... Light winds and low wave action expected through tonight as high pressure drift to the east coast. A gentle to moderate, mainly offshore southerly flow will develop on Saturday, with winds and waves remaining below headline criteria. Winds will further strengthen Saturday night and especially Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a strengthening area of low pressure moving from the lower Ohio Valley northeast through the central Great Lakes Sunday, with mainly fresh to strong varying southerly through westerly breezes expected to persist through at least mid week. Small Craft headlines are likely through much of the Sunday through Wednesday timeframe. Low chance for gale force gusts Sunday and Sunday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001>006- 010>014-019-085. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...EAJ/SW LONG TERM...EAJ/SW AVIATION...JM/TMA MARINE...JM/TMA