383
FXUS61 KBUF 200627
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
127 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue today, before low pressure tracks across
James Bay bringing some light rain late Thursday night and Friday.
Milder air out ahead of this system will give way to more seasonable
temperatures later Friday and Friday night following the passage of
its trailing cold front, with high pressure then building across our
region this weekend and providing us with mainly dry weather and
continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over the region will slide east through
tonight, with a southerly flow developing. Mid and high level
cloudiness this morning will thin out through the day. Our
gradual warming trend will continue, with highs in the mid and
upper 40s, but cooler east of Lake Ontario. Dry weather
continues tonight with lows in the 30s, but 20s for the normally
colder locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will slide from lower Hudson Bay to central Quebec
Friday while sending an attendant cold front through western and
northcentral NY. Moisture will be limited with this system, however
it will bring at least the chance for some scattered light rain
showers to end the work week, with the best chances for some light
measurable rainfall across the North Country closer to the better
forcing associated with the system centered well to the north. A few
wet flakes may mix in at the onset across Tug Hill/western Dacks
Friday morning, but no accumulation is expected.

Cold front settles south of the region Friday night with a cooler
airmass moving into the region in the wake of the fropa. A few
scattered light lake effect/enhanced rain and wet snow showers may
linger southeast of the Lakes into a portion of Friday night,
however increasing subsidence and drier air associated with high
pressure building in from the west will quickly shut down any lake
response and will provide mainly dry weather for later Friday night
through Saturday night. One caveat continues to be few outliers in
the operational guidance packages (including the NBM) continuing to
show low chances for a few showers Friday night toward the NY/PA
border associated with another low pressure system passing by to our
south. However, most deterministic guidance continues to keep any
shower activity south of the NY/PA state line.

Southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front will push daytime highs a
bit above average on Friday, with CAA in the wake of the frontal
passage bringing a return to below normal daytime highs on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure settles southeast into the Mid Atlantic on Sunday,
while a warm front extending south from low pressure moving east
through James Bay crosses the region, followed by a cold front late
Sunday/Sunday night. Guidance packages continue to be a bit more
aggressive with the chances for rain/snow showers to finish out the
weekend, especially east of Lake Ontario closer to the better
forcing/moisture associated with parent system to the north. Areas
south of Lake Ontario stand the best chance of remaining dry on
Sunday/Sunday night, especially the further south you go. Will have
to see if this southward trend in PoPs continues with future model
runs.

High pressure should then bring mainly dry weather for Monday and
Monday night, before an organized area of low pressure brings better
chances for some meaningful rain to the area toward mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A narrow swath of low stratus and embedded fog will continue to
bring areas of IFR/LIFR from KART northeastward across portions of
the North Country through about 08/09z, with this then expected to
gradually break up as a weak ESE/SE (downslope) flow develops.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period
as surface high pressure slowly drifts from our region out
across New England.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday....Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure passing across the Lower Great Lakes will
maintain light winds and minimal waves today.

Winds will gradually increase tonight as the pressure gradient
begins to tighten between exiting high pressure to the east and a
cold front approaching from the west. Winds will peak on Friday just
ahead of the cold front, with the potential for a period of small
craft headlines across the central and eastern portions of Lake
Ontario Friday through Friday evening.

High pressure will then build across the lower Great Lakes in the
wake of the cold frontal passage, with no more than some light chop
expected at times this weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...AR/JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/Thomas/TMA