713
FXUS61 KBUF 082334
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
734 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure centered over the upper to central Great
Lakes will gradually drop south across New York State and into New
England today through Friday. A cooler air mass in the wake of the
passing front from the day prior will support cooler and more
seasonable temperatures today through Thursday night. As a result,
tonight and Thursday night, expect widespread frost and freeze. As
the high slides off the New England coast Friday and into the
weekend, expect a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Early this afternoon, a line of scattered showers has developed
along the main axis of the upper level trough across central Oswego
county and far western Jefferson county. As the trough`s axis pivots
further to the east, these showers will weaken and exit east this
afternoon. Otherwise, surface high pressure over the upper and
central Great Lakes has begun to sag southeastward into western New
York, supporting dry weather this afternoon. This being said, the
pocket of cool air associated with the wake of the frontal passage
from Tuesday, has arrived, keeping temperatures at bay this
afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s despite the
bountiful amounts of sunshine.

As the surface high builds eastward tonight through Thursday night,
expect the chilly dry weather to prevail. While dry, the notable
weather during this time will be the likelihood for frost and freeze
across portions of the area. Ample radiational cooling due to the
light winds, clear skies and cooler airmass overhead will result in
sub-freezing temperatures across Jefferson and Lewis counties tonight
and low to mid 30s across WNY. This being said, a Freeze Warning has
been issued for Jefferson and Lewis counties for tonight with a
Frost Advisory for Oswego, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston,
Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. Similar to tonight,
Thursday night will be the coldest night of the week, with lows in
the upper 20s to low 30s across the higher terrain of the Southern
Tier and east of Lake Ontario with low to mid 30s elsewhere. This
being said, Frost/Freeze headlines will likely be needed for
Thursday night.

All of this being said, conditions south of Lake Ontario continue to
be less than favorable for frost formation. This will especially be
the case for those counties immediately bordering the south shore of
the lake and across portions of the Finger Lakes, where a
combination of lingering onshore northerly flow and/or the
development of some patchy lake effect clouds appear sufficient to
preclude much in the way of frost formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will slide southeast into New England Friday
and Friday night, though continue to reign overhead supporting the
continuation of dry weather. In addition to the dry weather,
temperatures will be on the rise and warm air advects into the
region starting late Thursday night. Unlike the nights prior, frost
and freeze will be less likely due to the warm air advection ahead
of the next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A shortwave trough will dive southeast across the Great Lakes region
Friday night through Saturday before joining up with a Mid-Atlantic
coastal low late in the weekend. As such, a weak surface low will
approach western New York Saturday sparking a few showers.
Afterwards, a coastal low will then track northeastward along the
Mid-Atlantic this weekend, though there continues to remain plenty
of uncertainty with the track and timing of this system and
therefore the overall impacts. The forecast continues to resemble
the NBM highlighting low chance PoPs (15%-25%) through Monday. Upper
level ridging and surface high pressure returns Tuesday through
Wednesday supporting the reprisal of dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

For the 00Z TAFs scattered mainly low end VFR ceiling heights
linger across the eastern half of the TAF region as well as the
upslope Chautauqua Ridge this evening as a mid level trough
axis exits our region.

Surface high pressure building in from the Upper Lakes will
veer northerly winds to northeast by daybreak, though speeds
will remain well under 10 knots, though substantial enough to
keep fog from spreading across the KJHW terminal.

VFR flight conditions will then continue through the day
tomorrow with a light north to northeast flow.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northerlies will continue across the Lower Great Lakes through
tonight. This will bring advisory- worthy conditions to areas
along the south shore of Lake Ontario much of the time through
tonight and to areas southwest of Dunkirk on Lake Erie.

As surface high pressure builds towards our region tomorrow
winds and waves will relax further...and remain below small
craft thresholds through the weekend with the area of high
pressure nearby.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ006.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ007-008.
     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ010>013-
     019-085.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ020-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ040.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...EAJ/JJR/Thomas