470
FXUS61 KBUF 140245
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
945 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mix of lake effect rain and snow showers will taper down tonight
and early Friday across far western NY with dry weather expected
Friday, while at least scattered lake effect light rain and higher
elevation snow showers continue from the lower Genesee Valley and
Finger Lakes eastward, before high pressure will then bring a brief
period of mainly dry weather to the entire area Friday night into
Saturday morning. Temperatures will rise to around 10 degrees above
normal Saturday, ahead of the next storm system that will bring a
period of rain Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Behind a cold
front Sunday rain showers will change over to snow, with a little
lake effect snow southeast of the Lakes Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Regional radars showing diminishing northwest flow lake effect rain
and higher elevation snow showers across the western Great Lakes and
Lake Erie on a northwest flow, however lake induced activity
continues off Georgian Bay southeast across Lake Ontario, with some
northwesterly flow upslope showers continuing over the terrain
areas. The majority of of the activity, in the form of scattered
rain and higher elevation snow showers is occurring from the lower
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes eastward. There may some additional
minor snowfall amounts, mainly across Tug Hill and the western
Dacks.

Drier air associated with the northern periphery of surface high
pressure centered over the Carolinas will nudge its` way into
western NY with a mainly dry Friday expected from around the Genesee
Valley westward. Meanwhile, colder airmass hangs tough across areas
east of Lake Ontario with scattered northwest flow light lake effect
rain and higher elevation snow showers expected to continue east and
southeast of Lake Ontario. A compact mid level shortwave will rotate
southeast across eastern NY and western New England Friday afternoon
through the main flow aloft, which will also bring the chance for a
few more general showers to areas east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure to the south and brief ridging across the region will
bring an end to showers off the lakes for Friday night into most of
the morning on Saturday. Starting Saturday, during the late morning
and afternoon an active period will start and continue through the
period and into the middle of next week. Synoptic, lake enhanced and
lake effect rain and snow showers will be possible during this
stretch of active weather.

A sfc low tracking across the northern fringe of the Great Lakes
will push a warm front across the area late Saturday morning and
into the afternoon. As this occurs brief warming to the mid 50s for
areas south of Lake Ontario and to the mid/upper 40s east of the
lake will occur. Showers will also develop as the warm front crosses
the area and with close proximity to the sfc low and the triple
point of the system showers will persist through the remainder of
the day/evening on Saturday. There is the potential for some cooler
temperatures during the initial onset of precipitation to start out
as a mix of wet snow and rain for the North Country.

As the cold front associated with the system tracks across the area
on Saturday night, snow will start to mix in with the rain, first
over the higher terrain. Precipitation will continue to mix with and
change over to snow with lowering elevations into Sunday as CAA
continues to lower temperatures at the sfc and aloft. More
widespread synoptic precipitation will start to transition to lake
enhanced and then lake effect snow through the day on Sunday.

With 850 temperatures cooling to near -10C in some areas Sunday
night, and a trough over the region, lake effect snow will become
better organized southeast of both lakes. At least a couple of
inches of snowfall will be possible Sunday night into Monday morning
where lake effect snow becomes better organized on a NW flow and
upstream connections developing with the central/upper Great Lakes.

Behind the passing cold front, temperatures will cool for Sunday,
with highs reaching the mid 30s to mid 40s from the higher terrain
to the lower elevations respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The lake response southeast of both lakes will continue into the
middle of the week with a few troughs crossing the region. The lake
response will week with time into the middle of the week as the main
core of the larger trough slowly pushes east and as temperatures
aloft warm slowly. Daytime heating resulting in marginally favorable
temperatures will also cause precipitation to mix with or change to
rain at times, especially over the lower elevations. Monday will
stand the best chance for accumulating lake snow during the period
with cooler temperatures lingering and a trough crossing the area.
Monday afternoon temperatures will remain in the low to upper 30s
for most areas. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will help to limit
accumulations some starting on Tuesday with afternoon highs
generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s for the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered light rain and higher elevation snow showers will continue
tonight, primarily from the lower Genesee Valley eastward. Mainly
VFR conditions expected through the overnight, although areas of low
VFR/MVFR CIGS will be possible southeast of Lake Ontario and across
the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Brief reductions in VSBY
will be possible in any higher elevation snow showers.

Surface high pressure will bring VFR and dry conditions across
western NY from the Genesee Valley westward on Friday. Scattered
light lake effect rain and higher elevation snow showers will
continue from the Finger Lakes eastward, with again brief VSBY
reductions possible in any snow showers. CIGS will be VFR/low VFR
across the lower terrain, with MVFR possible across the higher
terrain in these areas.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday morning... Mainly VFR.

Saturday afternoon...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR in rain from
west to east.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly mixing with
snow/brief freezing rain east of Lake Ontario. Rain changes to
showers/snow showers Sunday afternoon and night behind a cold front.

Monday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with a potential for rain and snow
showers off the lakes.

Tuesday...MVFR in limited lake effect precipitation, otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest flow will remain over the Lakes tonight as a deep surface
low cuts northward across eastern Canada. Long duration Small Craft
Advisories remain in place as outlined below on both the Lakes
through late tonight, although small craft headlines have been
extended through mid morning Friday for southeastern Lake Ontario.

As surface high pressure approaches the lower Great Lakes, winds and
waves will fall below small craft conditions Friday through Saturday
morning.

The next storm system this weekend will bring an increasing
southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front on the Lakes
Saturday afternoon, with waves possibly reaching 4 feet on Lake Erie
by late in the day. Then following the passage of the cold front
Saturday night, both winds and waves will increase on the Lower
Lakes with an extended period of high-end Small Craft Advisories
from Saturday night through Monday night

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LOZ042-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/Thomas
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/Thomas