972
FXUS61 KBUF 021823
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
123 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The widespread light snow will rapidly taper off from west to east
this afternoon, with a brief period of limited lake effect snow
showers south of the lakes adding another coating to an inch of snow
later today through this evening across Chautauqua County, the
Genesee Valley, and western Finger Lakes. A few more lake effect
snow showers may briefly develop near Buffalo and Watertown
Wednesday morning with minimal accumulation. A strong cold front
will then cross the region Wednesday night through early Thursday,
with a brief burst of lake enhanced snow developing northeast and
east of the lakes. Limited lake effect snow showers will continue
Thursday through Thursday night southeast of the lakes before mainly
dry weather returns Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The shield of widespread light to borderline moderate snow will
rapidly exit from west to east through mid afternoon as the
supporting mid level trough and frontogenesis moves off to the east.
The last of the accumulating snow east of Lake Ontario will be done
by mid afternoon.

A brief, very limited lake response will develop later this
afternoon and evening in northerly flow following the synoptic snow.
Off Lake Erie, expect just a few light snow showers in Chautauqua
County, with less than an inch additional accumulation. Off Lake
Ontario, an east-west oriented convergence band over the lake will
drop south and onshore late this afternoon and evening, before
moving inland across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes and
falling apart later this evening. This feature may drop a fresh inch
or so of accumulation in the Rochester area, Genesee Valley and
western Finger Lakes.

Overnight, the lake effect snow showers will temporarily end. Late
tonight and Wednesday morning, boundary layer flow will quickly
swing around to the southwest. This may briefly support a band of
light snow showers in the Buffalo Metro area off Lake Erie, and
Jefferson County off Lake Ontario. If these bands materialize, they
will be very brief and transient, with minimal accumulation.

Otherwise, the rest of Wednesday will be dry. Lake enhanced snow
showers will start to develop again by early Wednesday evening
northeast of the lakes as a strong cold front approaches, more on
that system below in the short term section.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A pair of cold fronts will plow across western and northcentral NY
Wednesday night. The second stronger front will move through the
area during the second half of Wednesday night producing a burst of
heavy snow accompanied by strong winds that will bring a widespread
1-2" with the frontal passage. Coldest airmass of the season will
also move over the area with 850 mb temps near -20C across the
eastern Lake Ontario region Thursday. The other concern will be lake
effect snow developing northeast of the lakes Wednesday evening on
southwest flow in advance of the fronts, the first of which will act
to enhance the snow northeast of the lakes through the early
overnight hours with little change in wind direction associated with
it. Winds will then slowly veer to west-southwest then west through
the second half of Wednesday night as second cold front moves
through the region. This will cause lake bands off both lakes to
shift east-northeast then east of the lakes by Thursday morning. It
appears at this point that the heavier snow will have moved south of
the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas before the Thursday morning
commute commences. Localized moderate accumulations will be possible
in areas of lake effect snow Wednesday night. Off Lake Erie...a few
to several inches will be possible across Erie, western Chautauqua,
and far northwestern Cattaraugus counties with the highest amounts
across the Boston Hills and Chautauqua Ridge. Off Lake Ontario...3-6
inches will be possible across Jefferson, northern Oswego, and
western/northwestern portions of Lewis counties, with a few 8 inch
reports not out of the question for central/southern Jefferson
County southward to northern Oswego County just depending on
residency time over any one area.

Westerly flow Thursday morning will veer northwest through the
afternoon. This will focus lake effect snow east then southeast of
the lakes respectively through the day. Off Lake Erie...an
additional inch or two will be possible across southern Erie,
Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties Thursday morning, with an inch
or two possible Thursday afternoon from north of Buffalo over to
Rochester with northwest flow lake effect southeast of Lake Ontario.
Off Lake Ontario...an additional 2-4 inches will be possible from
Lewis County southwest to Wayne County. Mentions will continue in
the HWO for the snowfall Wednesday night and Thursday. Outside of
main lake effect areas, a widespread inch or so will be possible as0
the midlevel trough swings through during the day.

Deeper moisture exiting later Thursday as the trough pulls east
combined with increasing subsidence associated with high pressure
ridging in from the Ohio Valley will allow much of the area to dry
out by later Thursday afternoon through Friday. Winds will gradually
back west then south through Thursday night as the center of the
high slides by to our south, with any weakening lake activity making
a sweep from south to north across the area and eventually into
Canada by Friday morning in a very weakened state. High pressure is
then expected to bring a dry finish to the work week.

Temperatures will be below normal through the period, especially
Thursday and Friday in the wake of the strong cold fropa with highs
mainly in the 20s. Overnight lows will likely fall below zero
Thursday night across the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry weather may persist into the start of Friday night as high
pressure departs east off the Atlantic Coast, before lake effect
snow showers try to develop northeast of the lakes later Friday
night and Saturday as southwesterly flow becomes better aligned
ahead of an approaching mid level trough and associated strong
surface cold front. Cold front crosses the region Saturday night
with yet another reinforcing blast of cold air in its` wake. Winds
veer northwest Sunday with any lingering lake snows shifting
southeast of the lakes.

Other than some localized lingering northwest flow lighter snow
showers southeast of the lakes Sunday night, models fairly well
aligned on an area of high pressure building in across the region
Sunday night into Monday with most of the area dry for the start of
the new work week, before a clipper-type system brings the chance of
snow back into the area by Tuesday.

Below normal temperatures will continue right through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The widespread light to borderline moderate snow will rapidly taper
off from west to east through mid afternoon, with VSBY quickly
improving to VFR in most areas. Some limited lake effect snow
showers will develop briefly late this afternoon and evening south
of the lakes. Off Lake Erie, this may bring some local MVFR/IFR VSBY
near KJHW. Off Lake Ontario, there is a better chance of a few hours
of IFR VSBY as a band of snow showers moves south off the lake and
into the Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes late this afternoon and
evening. Some of this may impact KROC. The lake effect snow will
quickly end overnight as a much drier airmass moves into the region.
Otherwise, areas of MVFR CIGS will continue in northerly upslope
flow and lake effect clouds this afternoon through tonight.

Boundary layer flow will swing around to the southwest early
Wednesday morning. A band of light lake effect snow showers may
briefly develop over and northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. If
these materialize, they may produce an hour or two of MVFR/IFR at
KBUF, KIAG, and KART. Otherwise, expect mainly dry weather and VFR
Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday morning...MVFR/IFR in snow showers.
Local lake enhanced snow east/northeast of the lake may produce
brief bursts of heavier snow and LIFR.

Thursday afternoon...VFR/MVFR in most areas, with local lake effect
snow and IFR southeast of the lakes.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Local IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes Wednesday
night. Southwest winds will increase Wednesday ahead of the front,
then veer to west and northwest behind the front late Wednesday
night and Thursday, producing a round of high end Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ005-
     006-008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock