651
FXUS61 KBUF 141822
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
122 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region tonight, and support a
brief period of mainly dry weather into Saturday morning.
Temperatures will rise to around 10 degrees above normal Saturday,
ahead of the next storm system that will bring a period of rain
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Behind a cold front Sunday
rain showers will change over to snow, with a little lake effect
snow southeast of the Lakes Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Regional radar shows a few areas of light precipitation in and
around the forecast area this afternoon. A shortwave trough over
southern Quebec and an upper level jet will support a few light rain
and snow showers across the North Country into this evening. A mix
of sun and clouds will continue across western NY, the a few
sprinkles possible across the western Southern Tier this afternoon.

Ridging from the surface to the mid-levels will move across the
eastern Great Lakes region tonight. Warm air advection will build
into western NY overnight. Mid to high clouds will increase from the
northwest and will limit fog development overnight into Saturday
morning. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s to low 30s
across western NY to the 20s east of Lake Ontario.

The high will shift east of the forecast area Saturday morning and a
southerly wind will increase from west to east. A sharp mid-level
trough will move into the Upper Great Lakes region while a surface
low moves from Lake Superior to eastern Ontario Saturday. A warm
front will drive northward across the forecast area with a 40-50kt
low level jet advecting Gulf moisture into the region. Showers will
spread across the forecast area with weak elevated instability in
the warm sector. This could result in a few rumbles of thunder. The
low will move north of Lake Ontario and a cold front will move
across the forecast area Saturday night. Strong cold air advection
is expected to mix down gusts up to 35 mph, however higher gusts are
possible along the lake shores overnight. Widespread showers will
taper off from west to east Saturday night, and a cool, northwest
flow will support lake effect rain and snow showers southeast of the
Lakes late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Any accumulation will
likely be on the higher terrain. Low temperatures will fall to the
30s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cold air advection on Sunday will start to change rain over to snow
from the higher elevations to the lower terrain through the day.
Precipitation will also start to transition from more widespread
synoptic rain/snow early Sunday, to lake enhanced and then to lake
effect through the day and into the evening. This will occur as a
sfc low pulls farther away from the area and a trough remains over
the region as temperatures aloft cool to around -10C through Sunday
night. Lake effect precipitation will change to all snow by the mid
evening (possibly earlier) on Sunday. Northwest flow will focus the
lake effect to areas southeast of the lakes. Upstream connections
and equilibrium heights reaching around 10k ft will allow lake bands
to become better developed during the evening on Sunday and continue
into Monday morning. During this time at least a few inches of snow
will be possible southeast of the lakes, but uncertainty still
remains as current guidance does have the lake bands moving some
through the Sunday night and into Monday morning. The greatest snow
amounts can be expected over the higher terrain south of Buffalo
where a better upstream connection is also possible with Lake Huron
and even Lake Superior.

Lake effect snow will continue southeast of the lakes on Monday and
Monday night, but will start to weaken some as the core of the
trough over the region starts to shift east. Lake snow will linger
the longest southeast of Lake Ontario with the better fetch and
slightly better location in relation to the trough. Accumulations on
Monday of a few inches will be possible, but should be limited with
marginal temperatures during the daytime hours and some snow
changing to rain for the lower elevations.

Winds will increase out of the northwest on Sunday with gusty winds
up to at least 35 MPH possible, especially closer to the lakes.

Temperatures for the period will cool behind a passing cold front on
Saturday night with highs on Sunday in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Monday will be a bit cooler with highs in the low 30s to near 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The deep low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes Monday
night will gradually move away from the area Tuesday through
Wednesday, with surface high pressure building into the western
Great Lakes. Lake effect snow showers Tuesday will gradually
diminish, although a few rain/wet snow showers may continue
southeast of the lakes Tuesday through early Wednesday with minimal
amounts and impact.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes through
Wednesday, bringing a brief period of mainly dry weather. Model
guidance begins to diverge on the track and timing of the next
system as a mid level trough and surface low move out of the
Southern Plains and towards the Ohio Valley. Rain chances will
gradually increase again starting Thursday with this system. But
again there continues to be much variability between the different
guidance packages and different runs for each.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light rain and snow showers are possible east of KART this
afternoon. A brief period of MVFR conditions are possible during
this time. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue across the region
this afternoon.

Deep ridging will move across the forecast area tonight. VFR
conditions are expected to continue across the terminals. The one
exception is a low chance of sub-VFR conditions at KJHW if fog
develops overnight. AT this time, mid to high level clouds should
limit that potential.

A warm front will approach the region from the Ohio Valley and
moisture will increase from west to east Saturday. Initially, rain
showers are expected to move into western NY Saturday morning. A
strong 40-50kt low level jet will spread across the forecast area
which may result in a period of low level wind shear Saturday
afternoon. Flight conditions will become low end VFR to MVFR across
far western NY by Saturday afternoon. Flight conditions will
deteriorate from west to east into Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Saturday morning... Mainly VFR.

Saturday afternoon...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR in rain from
west to east.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly mixing with
snow/brief freezing rain east of Lake Ontario. Rain changes to
showers/snow showers Sunday afternoon and night behind a cold front.

Monday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with a potential for rain and snow
showers off the lakes.

Tuesday...MVFR in limited lake effect precipitation, otherwise VFR.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As surface high pressure approaches the lower Great Lakes, winds and
waves will fall below small craft conditions through Saturday
morning.

The next storm system this weekend will bring an increasing
southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front on the Lakes
Saturday afternoon, with waves possibly reaching 4 feet on Lake Erie
by late in the day. Then following the passage of the cold front
Saturday night, both winds and waves will increase on the Lower
Lakes with an extended period of high-end Small Craft Advisories
from Saturday night through Monday night

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...Hitchcock/SW
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...EAJ/HSK