016
FXUS61 KBUF 272026
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
326 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air flowing across the open waters of the lower Great Lakes
will continue to support localized heavy lake effect snow east and
southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario through Friday night, along with
strong winds that will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Lake snows will weaken later Friday night into Saturday morning as
transient high pressure crosses the area bringing a brief period of
mainly dry weather on Saturday, before another area of low pressure
brings a round of light rain and snow later Saturday night and
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...

Cold air will continue to deepen across the lower Great Lakes
through Friday with localized heavy lake effect snow east of the
lakes tonight shifting southeast of the Lakes on Friday. Strong west
winds gusting 35 to 45 mph will produce areas of blowing and
drifting snow as well. This will become especially true tonight as
temperatures drop into the 20s, and even on Friday as the higher
terrain remains at or below Friday and lower terrain areas only
reach the mid 30s for a short duration during the middle of the day.

Off Lake Erie...

Westerly flow will continue to direct lake effect snow bands east of
the Lake tonight across the Boston Hills, southwest Wyoming County,
and the western Southern Tier. Winds veer west-northwest on Friday,
focusing the bulk of the heavier lake snows across far southern Erie
County, while continuing across the western Southern Tier. Any
upstream lake connections that can become established will locally
enhance snowfall in those areas. Strong winds gusting 35 to 45 mph
will also produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. Additional
snowfall amounts of 12 to 20 inches will be possible through Friday
across the warning areas. Snowfall rates will generally be 1-2" per
hour in the heavier snow bands. General lighter snow showers will
produce much lighter amounts across the remainder of western NY.

Off Lake Ontario...

Westerly flow will continue to direct lake effect snow bands east of
the Lake through much of tonight, with the main band impacting the
Watertown area through late evening, before the band starts to drop
south focusing across Tug Hill for the remainder of the night.
Marginal temperatures across the lower elevations (including
Watertown) will limit accumulations through the remainder of the
afternoon. As cold air deepens tonight, expect intensifying snow
band to start producing accumulating snows this evening across the
lower elevations, with several inches possible across the Watertown
area before the band slips south. Heavier lake snows will then focus
across Tug Hill for the majority of the night, before flow becomes
west-northwest directing the heavier snows southeast of the Lake
into Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties. Any
upstream lake connections will also play a role there locally
enhancing snowfall in those areas. Strong winds gusting 35 to 45 mph
will also produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. Additional
snowfall amounts of 8 to 16 inches will be possible through Friday
across the warning areas, with the highest totals on Tug Hill.
Snowfall rates will generally be 1-2" per hour in the heavier snow
bands, with 2-3" per hour rates possible at times on Tug Hill
tonight. General lighter snow showers outside of the main lake
effect areas will produce some minor accumulations elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cool, cyclonic flow will continue across the eastern Great Lakes
region Friday night through Saturday. An upper level low over
eastern Quebec will lift northward and the associated trough will
transition to a more zonal flow briefly across the Great Lakes
region with increasing heights aloft. A moderately, strong northwest
flow will continue to direct lake effect snow showers southeast of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, however the combination of diminishing
deep moisture from west to east, increasing heights and surface high
pressure building from the southwest will diminish lake effect snow
showers through Saturday. Additional snowfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches southeast of Lake Erie and 2 to 6 inches southeast of Lake
Ontario are expected into Saturday morning.

High pressure will briefly build into the region Saturday before
moving off the east coast Saturday evening. A very brief period of
around 12 hours of dry weather is expected late Saturday morning,
and into Saturday evening.

Another upper level trough will move across the Plains and an area
of low pressure is expected to near the central Great Lakes region
late Saturday night. A warm front will move into the forecast area,
and light snow is expected to move into western and north central
NY. Snow will move into WNY by the late evening and continue to
overspread the area to the east, arriving to the north central NY
area by the middle of the overnight.

By around daybreak on Sunday the sfc low associated with the
widespread snow will center over the central Great Lakes, and track
northeast along or just north of the US/Canadian border through the
day on Sunday. Widespread snowfall Sunday will transition to a mix
of snow and rain or all rain for the lower elevations. Higher
elevations will have the potential remain all snow. There is also
some uncertainty among the models as to how warm temperatures get
aloft behind the passing warm front, with some models suggesting a
better chance precip remains more on the snow side vs the rain side.
Early snowfall forecast are in the 1 to 3 inch range for most of the
forecast area, with up to 3 to 6 inches possible for the Tug Hill.

Temperatures for Saturday will be in the mid 20s over the higher
terrain to the mid 30s for the lower elevations. Sunday temperatures
warm a bit more to the low 30s to near 40 from the higher terrain to
the lower elevations respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active and cooler pattern continues as the sfc low causing
widespread snow/rain across the area on Sunday departs to the
northeast and lake enhanced/effect snow continues into the day on
Monday southeast of both lakes.

A potential coastal low Tuesday into Wednesday morning will bring
the chance for a widespread snow across the region. Model certainty
still remains high as some guidance is farther off the coast than
other guidance, but the possibility for the northwestern
precipitation shield to cross the area is still present.

Cooler temperatures along with the potential for precipitation
(including off of both lakes) will continue as frontal boundaries,
troughs and sfc low quickly pass across/near the region from mid-
week onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold air will continue to deepen across the lower Great Lakes
through Friday with localized heavy lake effect snow east of the
lakes tonight shifting southeast of the Lakes on Friday. Strong west
winds gusting 35 to 45 mph will produce areas of blowing and
drifting snow as well through the TAF period.

Lake effect snow will impact KJHW and KART this afternoon with
mainly MVFR/IFR. Mainly low VFR CIGS expected from the Niagara
Frontier over to KROC.

Tonight, lake effect snows will impact KART with localized IFR/LIFR
through late evening, before slipping south of the terminal, while
periods of IFR/LIFR continue across KJHW through the night. Periods
of IFR VSBY will be possible for KROC second half of tonight as the
Lake Ontario snow band tries to sag southward at times. Otherwise,
mainly MVFR CIGS and lighter snow showers across the remainder of
the region, although KART may remain (low) VFR as lake moisture
shifts south.

Flow veers west-northwest Friday morning, with IFR/LIFR in lake
effect snow showers continuing for KJHW, with some periods of IFR
possible at KROC in snow showers as well. Otherwise, mainly MVFR
CIGS and general scattered light snow showers expected through the
morning hours.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Heavier
lake effect snow with IFR/LIFR southeast of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Very windy.

Saturday...Lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes with
local MVFR/IFR early, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Sunday...MVFR with a rain/wet snow mix. Very windy.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in limited lake effect snow east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A deep low pressure will move slowly east across Quebec through
Friday, producing an extended period of gales on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will be found on the
Niagara River and Saint Lawrence River. Winds will finally diminish
below gales Friday night, then quickly drop off Saturday as high
pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Another strong low pressure system is forecast to move across the
central Great Lakes Sunday. This may bring another round of gales to
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ001>007-010>012-019-
     085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ004-005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ006.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ007-
     008-012-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HSK/SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock/JM