778
FXUS61 KBUF 180441
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1141 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light lake effect snow showers will linger this morning
southeast of Lake Ontario from Wayne to southern Oswego County,
otherwise dry weather will return today with less wind than the past
few days. Weak low pressure will then pass south of the region
tonight and may spread some light rain and wet snow across the
Southern Tier with little or no accumulation. High pressure will
then build into the Great Lakes with dry weather and a gradual
warming trend Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow continues to be weak and poorly organized southeast
of Lake Ontario early this morning, with lowering inversion heights
now keeping the cloud bearing layer too warm for dendritic crystal
growth. Expect a few more flurries and light snow showers across
Wayne, Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties through this morning,
but any additional accumulation will be less than an inch.

Otherwise, dry weather returns today as a narrow ridge of surface
high pressure builds east across the eastern Great Lakes.
Diminishing gradient will allow for much less wind than the past few
days, with highs running about 5F below average for mid November.

Tonight, mainly dry weather will continue for most of the area as
high pressure drifts east across southern Ontario. A weakening wave
of low pressure and mid level shortwave will move from the Ohio
Valley to the Mid Atlantic tonight. Most of the precip with this
feature will remain south of the area across PA where deeper
moisture and stronger frontogensis is found. Some light precip on
the northern edge of the system may cross the western Southern Tier
for a few hours during the mid to late evening with a mix of light
rain and wet snow of little consequence. Dry weather will return
areawide before daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes region
Wednesday and linger across the region through Thursday. This
will support dry and seasonable weather.

An area of low pressure will move across James Bay while it`s
associated cold front will swing through the Great Lakes region
Thursday night through Friday. Meanwhile, a southern stream system
will move from the Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Warm air
and moisture advection head of the advancing cold front will support
rain showers ahead and with the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Mean 500mb pattern shows a trough moving across eastern Canada
Friday night into Saturday. Cold air advection and lingering
moisture on the backside of an exiting system may support rain and
snow showers across the eastern Great Lakes region through Saturday.
The mean mid-level pattern becomes zonal the end of the weekend into
next week, with no clear signals of forcing for precipitation. Due
to model spread and uncertainty, maintained low chances of showers
Saturday night into Monday.

Temperatures are expected to be below normal Saturday then lean
above normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few light lake effect snow showers and flurries will linger
southeast of Lake Ontario this morning in a band from near KSDC to
KSYR with MVFR CIGS/VSBY. Areas of MVFR CIGS in stratus will
continue this morning across the Southern Tier. CIGS in most areas
will improve to VFR this afternoon with some lake effect clouds
lingering southeast of the lakes.

Tonight, dry weather and VFR will prevail for most areas. Weakening
low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic, and
the northern edge of the precip shield may produce a little light
rain and wet snow along with MVFR CIGS across the Southern Tier for
a few hours late evening through the early overnight. If this
materializes, it will end before daybreak Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with rain showers likely.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR CIGS with a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.MARINE...
Deep low pressure over the the Canadian Maritimes will continue to
move away from the region, with winds continuing to diminish from
west to east today. Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger on
Lake Ontario through midday before high pressure builds east across
the Great Lakes tonight through Wednesday with a return to light
winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock