642
FXUS61 KBUF 061819
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
119 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will induce a weak lake response off the lakes today,
with some minor accumulations. A low pressure system will then bring
widespread light accumulating snows Sunday into Sunday evening. High
pressure will build east Monday, with dry weather expected across
the Lower Lakes through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will sweep across the Lower Lakes this afternoon into
this evening. Given marginal cooling aloft ( H850 T`s -7C to -9C)
and the lack deep moisture extending through the DGZ we will likely
only see a limited lake response this afternoon. As the front pushes
through winds will veer from SW to W and any lake response will then
become focused east of both lakes by this evening. Snowfall amounts
off Lake Erie will not be all that much with an 1" or less northeast
of the lake. A bit more `might` be found across the higher terrain
(1-3") east of the lake when all is said and done.

Off Lake Ontario...westerly flow across the long axis of the lake
just might help add a few more inches but not much more. Total
accumulations of 2-4" will be possible with a focus on the higher
end of this number across the Tug Hill.

Tonight...lake snows will continue to be limited off both lakes as
BUFKIT profiles show little in the way of moisture extending into
the DGZ.

Otherwise...attention turns to a weak low approaching the Lower
Lakes which will bring some light accumulating snows Sunday into
Sunday evening. Again, not a significant event by any means but we
might see a general widespread snowfall of 1-3", with up to 4" in
spots.

High pressure will begin to build in from the west Sunday night with
drier weather taking hold as we move into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of Sunday`s system...lingering cold northerly upslope
flow and low level moisture intersecting the dendritic snow growth
zone will help to keep some flurries/scattered light snow showers
going south of the lakes (particularly Lake Ontario) Monday
morning...before these diminish Monday afternoon as the 850 mb ridge
axis finally builds across our region. Otherwise Monday will easily
feature our coldest daytime highs of the young winter season so
far...with max temps only expected to range from the upper teens
across the North Country and higher terrain south of Lake Ontario to
the lower 20s elsewhere. Good radiational cooling under lingering
surface based ridging will then allow readings to tumble into the
single digits to around 10 above south of Lake Ontario and to below
zero across portions of the North Country Monday evening...with
temps then slowly rising from west to east overnight as a southerly
return flow develops on the backside of the departing ridge.

On Tuesday the low level ridge will slide off the Atlantic
coastline...while yet another fast-moving shortwave trough and
modest surface low make their way from the Upper Great Lakes to
southern Ontario...with the latter feature pushing a trailing warm
front into our area in the process. Isentropic upglide/DCVA and
increasing moisture out ahead of these features will help to
generate scattered to numerous snow showers across the area between
late Tuesday morning and especially Tuesday afternoon...with pcpn
chances highest near the Canadian border and lowest across interior
portions of the Finger Lakes. Accums from these still look to be
light and on the order of an inch or less in most places...with
perhaps up to 2 inches east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise the warm
advection pattern will result in high temps climbing back into the
lower to mid 30s...though it will feel colder owing to an increasing
southerly wind that will gust to 25-35 mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rather active/progressive pattern looks to continue through this
period with a veritable parade of shortwaves/attendant surface lows
continuing to cross our region...with Tuesday`s weak system quickly
being followed by another...stronger surface low Tuesday night and
Wednesday...with a couple more systems then following between Friday
and Saturday.

Diving more into the details...the snow showers from Tuesday`s
surface low/warm front will barely have a chance to exit our area
Tuesday evening...before more widespread pcpn associated with the
next surface low arrives for the second half of Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The 12z operational runs of the GEM/GFS/ECWMF have
converged a little more on the track of this next system and
generally now take it somewhere between a southern Georgian Bay-
Ottawa Valley axis and Lake Ontario...though it remains to be seen
whether this better consistency will last given both the still-
somewhat distant time frame and differences in track seen up through
last night. The exact track of the low will heavily influence just
how much of a warmup (and consequently the pcpn types) we`ll
see...as well as the potential for any stronger winds. A more
northern track would allow for a stronger warmup and more of a
changeover to plain rain for a time on Wednesday along with a
greater chance of stronger winds...while a more southerly track
would support colder temps/more snow and a lower wind potential. For
now have continued to lean toward recent trends/continuity...which
suggest snow Tuesday night changing to a mix of mainly lower
elevation rain and higher elevation rain/snow during Wednesday.

In the wake of this system...a shot of colder air should then change
any lingering pcpn back to snow and bring at least some limited lake
effect snow potential to areas downwind of the lakes later Wednesday
night into Thursday. The next surface low then looks to pass by to
our south Friday while bringing the chance of a more general
snowfall...with even colder air and another weak system then
forecast to arrive for the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front nearing the Lower lakes will bring a mixture of VFR to
MVFR cigs, and at times lower vsbys this afternoon. That
said...there may be some IFR at KBUF/KART within the weak lake
induced snows northeast of the lakes this afternoon. Winds will veer
from SW to W by this evening which will push any lake snows south of
KBUF and KART.

Additionally...winds will gust at times to 25 knots as the cold
front nears then pushes through the region by this evening.

Tonight...weak lake induced snows east of the lakes will continue to
produce lower cigs and vsbys, especially across the higher terrain.

Elsewhere...expect mainly VFR conditions at area terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday...Widespread light snow with IFR/MVFR conditions.

Monday...Lingering lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario with
localized MVFR possible.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers, breezy.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will approach the lakes this afternoon bring a brief
period of Small Craft conditions to the lakes. Winds will subside
this evening and tonight but will then gradually strengthen again on
Sunday. A weak low passing through the Lower Lakes Sunday will
`likely` once again produce low end Small Craft conditions on the
lakes through Sunday evening.

High pressure builds east late Sunday night into  Monday across the
lakes, with lighter winds and diminishing wave action.

Looking a bit further out two shortwave troughs will pass over the
eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, with a stronger and lower
LLJ Wednesday. Southwest flow may reach gale force on the Lower
Great Lakes, especially Lake Erie...with Wednesday the better time
period for these stronger winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/Thomas