Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
800 FXUS61 KBUF 201829 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 129 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue today, before low pressure tracks across James Bay bringing some light rain late tonight and Friday. Milder air ahead of this system will give way to more seasonable temperatures later Friday and Friday night following the passage of its trailing cold front. High pressure will build across our region this weekend and provide us with mainly dry weather and continued seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mostly sunny skies will continue across western and north-central NY today. Surface high pressure centered across New England this afternoon will move off the east coast tonight. A cold front will approach from the Ohio Valley overnight, and a southerly flow will increase across the region. Clouds will increase in coverage from to west to east. Surface low pressure will move across James Bay on Friday. Upper level support and deep moisture will be well to north, however an associated cold front will move across the forecast area. Scattered showers are possible, with the greatest (however still low) chance east of Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence Valley late tonight through Friday morning. Further south, mostly dry weather is expected, however some hi-res guidance shows widely scattered showers across the higher terrain of western NY Friday afternoon. Southwest winds will increase ahead of the front, especially northeast of the Lakes Friday morning into early afternoon. Southwest wind gusts up to 25 mph are possible. Elsewhere, wind gust up to 20 mph are possible. Warmer Friday, with high temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s, mid 50s in the Genesee Valley. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will move into the forecast area for the start of the weekend. Dry and cooler weather is expected Saturday through Saturday night. Surface high pressure moves to the south Sunday as a system across northern Canada drags a cold front across the Great Lakes region. A sharpening upper level trough and 250mb jet streak will move across the region, however moisture is lacking with this system. There is a low to medium (25-45%) chance of rain and snow showers east of Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence Valley. Showers may linger east of Lake Ontario Sunday evening, however mostly dry weather is expected across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An exiting mid-level trough over New England Monday, will allow for brief ridging to slide overhead before the next trough over the Central Plains lifts northeast towards the Great Lakes Tuesday. This trough will merge with another trough sliding east across the Northern Plains and Upper Mid-West Tuesday, before pivoting across the central and eventually eastern Great Lakes by the Thanksgiving holiday. Translating this pattern down to the surface, surface high pressure will dominate overhead Monday supporting a period of dry weather regionwide. Then Tuesday, the aforementioned trough, will bring an organized area of low pressure to slide northeast across the Central Plains, before transferring its energy to another area of low pressure over southern Manitoba. All in all, this will result in a frontal passage across the region mid-week. Elevated forecast uncertainty this far out ast model guidance packages continue to have their discrepancies with timing and track of the system. All in all, this system will bring another round of widespread rainfall to the region. Looking further into the future for the Thanksgiving holiday and into the weekend, cold air will filter into the region in the wake of the frontal passage mid-week. Overall, widespread rain should transition to lake effect snow showers east of Lakes Erie and Ontario by Thanksgiving morning. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions across western and north-central NY this afternoon. A cold front will approach the region from the Ohio Valley tonight. Low to mid level clouds will expand across the region from west to east and VFR conditions will worsen to MVFR to IFR by Friday morning. Widespread MVFR conditions at lower elvations and IFR across the higher terrain will continue Friday morning. Southwest winds will increase Friday morning, especially downwind of the Lakes. Wind gusts up to 20-30 knots are possible at most of the TAF sites with the exception of KJHW where winds will be lower at KJHW. Outlook... Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday....Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower. Tuesday...Rain. MVFR/IFR is likely. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure passing across the Lower Great Lakes will maintain light winds and minimal waves today. Winds will gradually increase tonight as the pressure gradient begins to tighten between exiting high pressure to the east and a cold front approaching from the west. Winds will peak on Friday just ahead of the cold front, with the potential for a period of small craft headlines across the central and eastern portions of Lake Ontario Friday through Friday evening. High pressure will then build across the lower Great Lakes in the wake of the cold frontal passage, with no more than some light chop expected at times this weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA NEAR TERM...HSK SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK