Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
790 FXUS61 KBUF 141843 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Sprawling surface high pressure building southward into the region from Canada will ensure fair dry weather continues through the week. Temperatures will average above normal and even feel summer-like at times through midweek, before the region cools to more seasonable levels near the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak cold front between a departing trough across the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building south from ON/QC will continue to wash out over the region through this evening. Just a few spotty showers with the front exiting the North Country early this afternoon, otherwise fair dry weather will prevail across the region through Monday as the high remains in control. Not much of an airmass change noted with the front so temperatures are expected to remain seasonably warm, averaging a few degrees above normal for mid- September. Clear skies, light winds and some remnant moisture in the S. Tier and Black River should allow for valley fog to redevelop overnight tonight, which could be locally dense with vsbys down to 1/4SM. Elsewhere patchy radiation fog can be expected, which should burn off within a few hours of sunrise Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak area of low pressure centered over the Carolinas will remain nearly stationary from Monday night through Tuesday night, while high pressure stays firmly entrenched across New York and New England keeping dry weather in place. The low will start to trek slowly northeast into the Mid Atlantic region through the day on Wednesday, then toward southern New England Wednesday night. However as it encounters high pressure entrenched across our area, the low will weaken further becoming an open trough as it gets shunted southeast of our area. A few scattered light showers will try to make a run as far northwest as southeastern NYS later Wednesday and Wednesday night with western and northcentral NY expected to remain rain-free. Temperatures will be above average with highs generally ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Our area remains dry Thursday as the remnant trough moves northeast off the New England coast. A moisture-starved cold front will press south into the area Thursday night. Though a few showers will be possible toward the eastern Lake Ontario region, the better forcing will be to our northeast, yet with still only limited available moisture. Needless to say, any rainfall appears as though it will be "non-impactful." Cold front pushes south of the area Friday, with a cooler air mass moving into the region for the tail end of the work week into the weekend. Medium range guidance has come into better agreement on the overall late week/weekend pattern, which does not bode well for anyone wishing for some beneficial rainfall, at least through the first half of next weekend. Strong area of sprawling Canadian high pressure builds south across New York and New England later Friday through Saturday with dry weather expected to continue. Confidence lowers by Sunday, as high pressure slides east off the New England coast possibly allowing a disorganized and weakening area of low pressure to our west to try to make some eastward progression, perhaps allowing for a few showers to make it into our area by the second half of next weekend (Latest NBM has SChc to low Chc PoPs by Sunday). Surprise, surprise...taking a glance at the latest 12Z medium range guidance coming in, these rain chances for Sunday have been shoved a bit further westward once again. Otherwise, expect more seasonable temperatures Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Widespread VFR will prevail into this evening as sprawling high pressure builds south from Ontario and Quebec. Main concern for restrictions through the 18z TAF cycle will be in fog development tonight. Confidence is high in localized LIFR fog redeveloping in the valleys of the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario, which is likely to impact vsbys at KJHW. Considerably lower confidence in impacts from radiation fog in other locations and TAFs may require frequent AMDs as the night progresses. Any overnight fog will begin to lift and dissipate following the sunrise Sunday morning. The radiation fog will clear out first, with the valley fog to completely dissipate by around 15z. Outlook... Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Overnight valley fog across the western Southern Tier will be possible. && .MARINE... Light breezes and minimal wave action expected on the lakes through this evening as high pressure builds south into the region behind a weak passing cold front. A period of persistent northeasterly winds will develop tonight through Tuesday as the center of the sfc high slowly migrates across southern Quebec to New England. This may result in a bit more chop on the waters, especially along the western end of Lake Ontario and the Chautauqua County shoreline. While winds could briefly reach 15kts on the waters for a few hours tonight, SCA conditions are not expected through the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PP NEAR TERM...PP SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...PP MARINE...PP