


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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960 FXUS61 KBUF 152322 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 722 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler temperatures and dry weather expected through the end of the work week. An approaching system will bring a warm-up and the next chance for rain over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cool, northerly flow is expected across the region through Thursday as sfc high pressure builds in from the Upper Great Lakes. Winds will diminish tonight, but stay elevated near the lakeshores and southeast of Lake Ontario. A minor uptick in low-level moisture may support lake effect clouds southeast of Lake Ontario late tonight into Thursday. These two elements will keep weather slightly warmer than surrounding locations. Minimum temperatures will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across interior portions of the forecast area, to the low 40s along the lakeshores and southeast of Lake Ontario. A Frost Advisory is in effect for inland locations in Erie, Chautauqua, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and Oswego counties. The center of the surface high will approach the forecast area Thursday. A brief period of gusty winds (up to 25 mph) is likely east of the Genesee Valley Thursday afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are expected with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will move overhead Thursday night through Friday. Cool weather with light winds and clear skies will lead to good radiational cooling and temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s, mid to upper 20s across the higher terrain away from the Lakes. There is medium to high confidence of areas of frost away from immediate lakeshores. Seasonal weather is expected Friday, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An amplified pattern will develop for this weekend, with a large ridge of high pressure, and its associated axis over the Great Lakes and through the Tennessee Valley Friday night, while a deepening trough of low pressure forms over the northern Plains. This trough will collect both tropical Pacific moisture along with northern Pacific moisture. A warm front will pass northward across our region Friday night and Saturday morning, with a few rain showers upon it. The models have trended a little slower with the evolution of this storm system, with a milder airmass not reaching our region till Saturday night. Temperatures at 850 hPa of now +10 to +12C will support highs Saturday in the 60s, with a mild night in the upper 40s to mid 50s expected. Like-wise the slower arrival of the cold front on Sunday will now focus the rain showers with potential thunder more towards Sunday afternoon and evening...with a gusty southerly breeze ahead of the precipitation aiding in pushing temperatures early into the mid 60s to lower 70s. A cooler airmass will follow this front for the beginning of next week, though just how cold will be based in part upon where a closed low forms in the northeast...of which the models still have considerable differences. Will just leave the NBM PoPs in the forecast for now for the start of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure across the Upper Great Lakes this evening will slowly build over the Eastern Great Lakes through Thursday. This will allow areawide VFR and northerly flow to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. Patchy lake clouds with bases 3-4kft may develop south-southeast of Lake Ontario overnight, though confidence remains low as the overhead airmass is very dry. If any do materialize, will not be able to rule out some occasional low VFR cigs from KROC to KFZY. Outlook... Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance for rain showers. Saturday...Mainly VFR. Becoming VFR across WNY, MVFR/VFR east of Lake Ontario in isolated rain showers. Sunday...IFR/MVFR in rain showers. Isolated thunder and gusty winds possible across WNY. Monday...VFR/MVFR with chance of rain showers. && .MARINE... Northerly winds and subsequent chop will increase on both lakes through the first half of the night as the pressure gradient across the eastern Great Lakes increases and the airmass aloft slightly cools. This will result in SCA conditions developing on the southeastern end of Lake Ontario as outlined below. Lower confidence in 15-20kt winds for a few hours over the other nearshore waters, though it will be close at times especially on the western and eastern ends of Lake Ontario. Winds and waves will relax some later Thursday morning but remain elevated through the evening, especially on Lake Ontario before the pressure gradient starts to weaken Thursday night. As the center of the high moves overhead, light winds and low wave action are expected to finish off the work week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ006- 010>013-019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for LOZ043-044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...HSK/PP SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...PP MARINE...PP