832
FXUS61 KBUF 130624
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
124 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly lake effect rain showers will continue today and into Friday
morning. After a brief period of dry weather Friday and into
Saturday, unsettled weather then returns for the later half of the
weekend. Another round of lake effect showers will follow early in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current radar imagery this morning is depicting lake effect rain
showers southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario with the majority
of the activity lying southeast of Lake Ontario across northern
Cayuga and Oswego counties. Showers can be attributed to the moist,
cool (temperatures at 850mb at -5C) northwest flow overhead. Lake
effect showers will continue today, especially southeast of Lake
Ontario where deeper synoptic moisture will remain. Upstream
connections to Georgian Bay and Lake Huron could bring additional
showers to the rest of the area. Across the higher terrain this
morning, mixing with and changing to snow is possible across the
higher elevations is possible, where up to an inch of snow can be
expected, especially across the Tug Hill.

Broad troughing overhead this morning will allow yet another
shortwave trough to dive southeast across the Great Lakes today,
supporting a few more showers to blossom across the region,
especially southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario as lake enhancement
is likely. Showers will persist southeast of Lakes through much of
the day, before starting to diminish this evening, with the main
activity lying southeast of Lake Ontario tonight. While temperatures
will remain mild enough across the lower elevations today,
supporting mainly rain showers. Temperatures will remain marginal
enough to support snow across the high terrain, especially across
the Tug Hill where an inch or two of snowfall accumulation will be
possible.

Ridging to the west today, will build east into the lower Great
Lakes tonight, supporting lake enhanced showers to gradually
diminish tonight and into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A closed low will remain parked over the Canadian Maritimes Friday,
with another strong shortwave diving down the western flank of the
trough and across eastern NY and New England. A northwest flow of
seasonably chilly air will continue to support a few lake effect
rain and wet snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario. Surface
temperatures will be above freezing and precipitation light, so
expect little or no snow accumulation and minimal impact. Any
remaining light lake effect rain/snow showers Friday evening will
end overnight as a ridge surface and aloft moves east across the
Great Lakes.

Saturday will start dry, then another progressive mid level trough
and associated cold front will move east into the Great Lakes later
in the afternoon, with the cold front then crossing the eastern
Great Lakes Sunday night. Stout warm advection ahead of this system
will allow all precipitation to fall in the form of rain with this
system, arriving late Saturday afternoon and peaking in coverage
Saturday night. This system is fast moving, which will limit
rainfall amounts to 0.25" to 0.50" in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A trough moving east across southeastern Canada Sunday will continue
to dig and sharpen, evolving into a closed low over New England and
the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night through Monday. A cooler airmass
will pour back into the Great Lakes Sunday in the wake of a
departing surface low, with rain showers mixing with, and changing
back over to snow showers. A chilly northwest flow will support some
lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes later Sunday through
Monday. This airmass is not quite as cold as earlier this week, and
limited moisture/synoptic scale forcing should keep the lake effect
snow relatively limited in terms of amounts and impacts.

The mid level closed low will move northeast of the Canadian
Maritimes by Tuesday, with a WNW flow still possibly supporting a
very limited lake response through Wednesday with low chance POPS
for a few light rain/snow showers.

Temperatures will remain a little below average through the first
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect showers continue to settle southeast of Lakes Erie and
Ontario early this morning, falling as mainly rain across the lake
plains with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and wet snow across the higher
elevations with IFR CIGS and MVFR/IFR VSBYS. The main lake effect
activity continues to remain away from the TAF sites, though chances
for periodic impacts are likely at KROC and to a lesser extent KJHW.

A conglomeration of MVFR and IFR conditions east and southeast of
the lakes will continue today as lake enhanced/effect showers
persist through much of the day. Additionally, some higher terrain
snow is possible, causing further VSBY reductions.

Outlook...

Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for rain and snow showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly mixing with
freezing rain east of Lake Ontario at onset.

Monday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with a potential for rain and snow
showers off the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
A wave of low pressure will move across the Great Lakes early this
morning. Given the cold airmass overhead, gusty west winds continue
on the lakes early this morning. Long duration small craft
advisories remain in place as outlined below.

Waves are expected to remain 4 feet and greater through this evening
on the eastern Great Lakes. As surface high pressure approaches the
lower Great Lakes Friday, winds and waves will briefly fall below
small craft conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ