105
FXUS65 KBYZ 180910
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
310 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...

Summary: Cool, wet, and breezy conditions will continue today as
the strong upper trough moves through. Expect widespread showers
this morning to become more scattered this afternoon before
tapering off this evening. Winds will also decrease this afternoon
across the region. Areas along the immediate foothills could see
a rain/snow mix early this morning, with all snow expected in the
mountains. Wednesday will see warming temperatures with only low
afternoon chances of precipitation (10-35% chance).

Radar imagery early this morning shows widespread shower activity
impacting the region. In the east, showers are quickly lifting
northeast ahead of the approaching trough. Over western and
central areas, showers are filling in from the northwest behind
the passing trough. This more widespread activity will continue to
push east through the morning hours today. Behind this activity,
instability showers and weak thunderstorms look to form this
afternoon (30-60% chance). With weak instability in place, any
thunderstorms that develop look to remain garden variety. Along
the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains and foothills, there looks to be
a brief period of upslope flow this afternoon. This will likely
(80-90% chance) bring a quick push of moderate precipitation to
the area. Snow levels look to be around 7,000 feet during this
time, so we are expecting all snow in the mountains through the
day. Down in the town of Red Lodge, we are not expecting any
accumulations of snow, but snow could be mixed in with the rain at
times. Additional precipitation amounts, including this early
morning activity, look to range from 0.05 inches to 0.75 inches
(highest north of Billings and in the southwestern mountains).

Outside of precipitation, temperatures will remain below normal
today with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. Breezy winds gusting 15
to 35 mph this morning will gradually taper off from west to east
this afternoon and evening as well. High temperatures Wednesday
are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows
will be in the 30s to lower 40s tonight and upper 30s to lower 50s
Wendesday night. Arends

Thursday through Monday...

Southwest flow will be over the area Thursday. This patter will
work to warm temperatures and tamp down precipitation chances. A
fairly weak Pacific trof moves into the area Thursday night
through Friday. This system will bend some plains moisture into
the area bringing a good chance for widespread precipitation to
the forecast area on Friday. Probabilities for over a quarter of
an inch of rain from Thursday night into Saturday morning range
from 35% in the west to 75% along the eastern state line. Ridging
builds in Saturday afternoon. With sunny skies and downslope
winds will see temperatures climb into the 80s. With ridge
remaining in place Sunday models push temperatures into the 90s
across the area for the afternoon. Could be the warmest
temperatures so far this year in many places, with probability of
surpassing 95 degrees in Billings sitting at 30%. Southerly winds
will also help pull low level moisture into the area for a hot
and humid afternoon as currently forecast. Overall a good weekend
to get outdoors, just plan for the hot/humid conditions. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...


MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail through mid day along with
mountain obscuration down to 5000ft. This afternoon will see
ceilings lift as convective activity (showers) develop, replacing
the more persistent rain/mountain and foothills snow from the
morning. Will continue to see MVFR conditions near precipitation
areas this afternoon, but outside of that, VFR conditions should
prevail. West to northwest winds will be gusty at times through
the morning, diminishing in the afternoon. By 02z this evening
expect convection and any remaining gusty winds to dissipate.
Can`t rule out fog development tonight for areas that saw more
than a quarter of an inch of precipitation with this system.
Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056 040/072 049/077 056/076 056/083 058/091 061/088
    7/T 20/U    01/B    36/T    62/T    00/U    11/U
LVM 057 033/069 038/074 048/078 049/083 052/089 054/085
    7/T 41/U    01/B    26/T    42/T    01/U    11/N
HDN 057 037/076 048/080 056/079 055/084 057/092 060/089
    7/T 11/U    02/T    46/T    62/T    10/U    11/U
MLS 053 037/073 050/078 057/075 056/080 057/088 062/087
    9/W 11/U    12/W    56/T    73/W    10/U    10/U
4BQ 055 038/073 051/077 058/076 057/080 057/090 063/089
    3/W 12/W    12/W    55/T    73/T    10/U    11/U
BHK 054 036/071 048/075 055/073 055/079 054/087 061/088
    7/W 21/U    12/W    55/T    73/T    10/U    11/U
SHR 058 035/073 046/078 053/078 052/082 054/091 059/091
    3/T 11/U    12/T    46/T    62/T    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONE 67.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings