732
FXUS65 KBYZ 170259
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
759 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weather system brings isolated to scattered lower elevation rain
  and mountain snow to Wyoming and southern Montana Monday.

- Unsettled and cool conditions continue through this week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Winds are increasing over far eastern Montana this evening with
gusts into the 20s (mph) common over Fallon and Carter Counties.
While these breezy winds will limit the risk of fog over these
areas, patchy fog is possible again tonight west of these winds,
mainly along the river valleys between Billings and Miles City.
Otherwise, temperatures tonight across region will be above
normal in the 20s to lower 40s (F).

Satellite imagery shows our next weather system is currently, as
of 745PM MST, moving northeast into Wyoming. The track of this low
is expected to remain mostly south of our area, but isolated to
scattered lower elevation rain and mountain snow showers are still
forecast over southern Montana into northern Wyoming Monday. With
the latest run of high resolution models, the precipitation
potential has shifted a bit farther east, now favoring northern
Wyoming and south-eastern Montana a bit more. Have adjusted PoPs
to reflect this. Overall, precipitation amounts still look to
remain light (generally 0.10 inches or less of liquid, with a few
areas of locally heavier amounts possible). The rest of the
forecast remains on track. Arends

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...

While ridging is currently in place over the region, southwest
flow from an approaching low pressure system is transporting
moisture. As a result, radar is showing some light showers over
the mountains. As that low moves into Wyoming and southeast MT
tonight, chance for precipitation will increase for locations
along the MT/WY border (20-60%, highest in higher terrain) as
well as southeast MT. Amounts with the system are expected to be
low with about a 30-60% chance for a tenth of an inch for the
mountains and foothills through Monday, with a 20% chance or less
for lower elevations. Additionally, a low level jet will set up
over eastern MT overnight, bringing gusts of 25-35 mph. Late
Monday into Tuesday morning, a few high- res models are wanting
to produce a band of precipitation through south central MT
bringing a 20-40% chance of precip to these areas. Wednesday, a
shortwave disturbance is set to pass through MT, but amounts will
be light and probabilities look to be similar to the previous
event. Ensembles bring ridging back to the region Thursday,
transitioning the pattern to a zonal flow with potentially
unsettled weather for the weekend.

High temperatures will be in the upper 40s and 50s through the
period. TS

.AVIATION...

00z discussion...A weather system moving in from the south will
spread cloud cover across much of the area tonight into Monday. As
for precipitation, most of the isolated to scattered showers look
to stay over Wyoming and southern Montana. With this, periods of
snow in the mountains will lead to occasional mountain
obscuration. Over the plains, ceiling may drop near the 3-5kft AGL
range near precipitation, but the chance of MVFR conditions
remains low.

Otherwise, there is a slight chance of fog mainly along the river
valleys tonight over south-central/eastern Montana and northern
Wyoming. Over far eastern Montana, breezy winds tonight should
limit the development of fog. Arends/Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/057 040/055 038/053 031/049 031/053 035/053 033/049
    11/B    22/W    13/W    10/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
LVM 037/057 035/055 033/051 029/050 028/052 031/050 031/047
    12/E    11/B    13/W    10/U    00/U    12/W    32/W
HDN 033/052 036/055 034/053 029/050 028/052 030/054 030/050
    11/E    22/W    23/W    20/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 034/050 032/053 035/052 029/048 028/050 032/052 030/048
    01/B    11/B    11/E    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 035/048 035/053 036/052 031/047 029/050 032/051 031/047
    03/W    01/B    11/B    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B
BHK 029/045 029/053 032/051 028/046 023/048 027/051 027/047
    02/W    00/B    11/E    10/B    00/B    00/B    10/B
SHR 032/053 034/053 032/052 029/049 026/052 027/053 026/047
    14/W    23/W    13/W    31/B    11/B    01/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings