006
FXUS65 KBYZ 161944
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1244 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weather system late today into Monday brings cooler
  temperatures and the chance of precipitation (20 to 50 percent
  chance).

- Unsettled and cool conditions continue into the middle of this
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...

While ridging is currently in place over the region, southwest
flow from an approaching low pressure system is transporting
moisture. As a result, radar is showing some light showers over
the mountains. As that low moves into Wyoming and southeast MT
tonight, chance for precipitation will increase for locations
along the MT/WY border (20-60%, highest in higher terrain) as
well as southeast MT. Amounts with the system are expected to be
low with about a 30-60% chance for a tenth of an inch for the
mountains and foothills through Monday, with a 20% chance or less
for lower elevations. Additionally, a low level jet will set up
over eastern MT overnight, bringing gusts of 25-35 mph. Late
Monday into Tuesday morning, a few high- res models are wanting
to produce a band of precipitation through south central MT
bringing a 20-40% chance of precip to these areas. Wednesday, a
shortwave disturbance is set to pass through MT, but amounts will
be light and probabilities look to be similar to the previous
event. Ensembles bring ridging back to the region Thursday,
transitioning the pattern to a zonal flow with potentially
unsettled weather for the weekend.

High temperatures will be in the upper 40s and 50s through the
period. TS


.AVIATION...

18z TAF Discussion...Patchy fog and stratus are dissipating over
SE Montana late this morning. Expect VFR conditions and light
winds across the area for the rest of the day. A disturbance
moving in from the south will spread extensive cloud cover over
the area this afternoon through tonight. Most of the precipitation
with this system will stay over Wyoming but southern mountains
will see periods of snow through the forecast period, along with
occasional mountain obscuration. VCSH is in the TAF for KLVM and
KSHR. Ceilings may drop into the 3-5kft AGL range near
precipitation areas. Fog may make an appearance over SE Montana
again late tonight into tomorrow morning including KMLS and KBHK.
There is a slight chance for fog to work up river valleys and into
the KSHR and KBIL vicinity around sunrise, but probabilities too
low to include in TAFs just yet. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/057 040/055 038/053 031/049 031/053 035/053 033/049
    11/E    12/W    13/W    10/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
LVM 037/057 035/055 033/051 029/050 028/052 031/050 031/047
    12/W    21/B    13/W    10/U    00/U    12/W    32/W
HDN 033/052 036/055 034/053 029/050 028/052 030/054 030/050
    12/W    22/W    23/W    20/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 034/050 032/053 035/052 029/048 028/050 032/052 030/048
    01/B    11/B    11/E    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 035/048 035/053 036/052 031/047 029/050 032/051 031/047
    02/W    11/B    11/B    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B
BHK 029/045 029/053 032/051 028/046 023/048 027/051 027/047
    01/E    10/B    11/E    10/B    00/B    00/B    10/B
SHR 032/053 034/053 032/052 029/049 026/052 027/053 026/047
    14/W    23/W    13/W    31/B    11/B    01/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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