


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
836 FXUS65 KBYZ 162057 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lower elevation rain and mountain snow through tonight; heaviest precipitation east of Billings; snow levels fall to around 7000 feet. - Brisk wind and a little warmer with scattered showers Friday and Saturday; showers most likely to occur Friday night and early Saturday, with a rain/snow mix into the foothills and light snow accumulations in the mountains. - Dry and warmer Sunday (temps in 60s to near 70F). - Turning cooler with chance of precipitation again Monday; followed by drier conditions and seasonable temps Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Through Tonight... An upper low tracking north and east through Wyoming was bringing areas of showers and mountain snow to the area. As the low lifts north and east into the Dakotas this evening, expect the rain and snow to gradually shift to the north and east as well. Precipitation is expected to move east of the area by daybreak Friday. Additional precipitation totals through tonight will be greatest over the east, where an additional 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall is possible. Additional snow accumulations will be greatest above 8k ft on north/northwest facing slopes, with only light accumulations in the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains, and a few inches in the Bighorn Mountains. Friday and Saturday... Mainly dry and breezy conditions can be expected on Friday as subsidence works into the region behind the exiting low. Ensembles suggest the probability of gusts exceeding 40 mph as high as 90% for our western foothills in the morning thanks to a decent pressure gradient and 700mb winds 30-40 kts. Cannot rule out a few gusts to 50 mph at Harlowton, Big Timber or Livingston (45% chance). Elsewhere, wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph are possible, strongest near the Dakotas border. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A fast-moving clipper in WNW flow aloft will push across the area Friday night through midday Saturday. This feature will bring more showers to lower elevations Friday evening through Saturday morning, with a rain/snow mix along the foothills, and a few inches of mountain snow, followed by another dose of breezy W-NW winds on Saturday. Will need to keep an eye on the foothills, as this type of system has a tendency to change the precipitation over to snow sooner than indicated in guidance. Highs on Saturday will be a little cooler than Friday, mainly in the 50s. Sunday... Shortwave ridging will bring drier and warmer conditions to the area on Sunday, with highs in the 60s for most places. Tightening pressure gradients and increased 700 mb winds (30-40 kts) will bring increasing gap winds for the western foothills Saturday night into Sunday morning. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are possible at Livingston and Nye (50% chance of winds greater than 50 mph). Monday through next Wednesday... Cluster analysis indicates better agreement that a broad low amplitude trough will push across Montana Sunday night through Monday bringing another shot of rain showers and mountain snow. The probability for 0.25 inches or more of precipitation is 30-80%, highest over the western mountains. Several inches of snow are possible in the mountains. Ridging to westerly zonal flow is progged by ensembles Tuesday through Thursday with seasonal temps and mainly dry conditions. STP .AVIATION... Isolated to scattered showers over the west and widespread showers over the east will continue through the afternoon. By evening, showers from KBIL west will quickly dissipate, while showers to the east will continue through the evening before exiting to the east overnight. MVFR/IFR conditions will continue to be common with these showers, with occasional IFR/LIFR possible under heavy rain and very low ceilings. Gusts around 20-30 kts will be common for most locations by Friday morning, with gusts of 35 to 45 kts over the western foothills, including near KLVM and K6S0. Archer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 040/064 037/055 041/065 040/053 033/058 037/058 038/064 31/U 40/U 04/W 54/W 10/U 11/U 10/U LVM 032/060 029/054 036/061 029/049 026/057 029/058 032/063 11/N 50/U 16/W 75/W 10/B 11/U 10/U HDN 037/064 035/055 033/066 037/053 029/059 033/058 031/065 71/U 71/U 03/W 74/W 20/U 11/U 10/U MLS 040/060 035/054 034/064 038/053 031/058 035/057 033/065 90/N 30/U 03/W 42/W 10/U 11/U 00/U 4BQ 041/059 036/051 034/066 039/050 031/057 035/055 034/065 90/U 51/U 01/B 52/W 10/U 01/U 00/U BHK 037/058 032/053 029/064 035/051 027/055 032/055 031/063 91/N 20/N 01/B 41/N 10/U 01/B 00/U SHR 032/062 031/052 028/068 032/050 025/059 030/056 030/067 60/U 72/W 01/B 75/W 20/U 11/U 10/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings