598
FXUS65 KBYZ 022124
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
224 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weather system brings precipitation (rain/snow) and breezy winds
  to the area through early Wednesday.

- Light snow accumulations possible over the lower elevations,
  with a few inches forecast over the higher hills and down along
  the foothills of southern Montana and northern Wyoming. Several
  inches of snow are forecast in the mountains.

- Winds increase along the western foothills Wednesday night into
  Thursday.

- Unsettled conditions continue Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Monday...

A splitting trough dropping from the Pac NW into the Northern
Rockies was bringing rain/snow to much of the area today. While a
rain/snow mix was found over portions of the lower elevations, snow,
moderate to to heavy at times has been affecting the higher hills
of southeast MT. The rain/snow has been steadily shifting south
this afternoon as the trough digs to the west. Precipitation is
expected to continue dropping south into the southern mountains
and foothills by this evening, becoming enhanced as frontogenesis,
upslope enhancement, and instability combine. As cold air
advection works into the area, precipitation will become all snow,
with snow showers continuing to move in from the north, with the
snow lingering longest over the southern mountains and foothills into
early Wednesday morning. Downslope winds are expected to regain
control by mid-day Wednesday, ending any remaining snowfall over
the area.

Light snow amounts can be expected over the lower elevations, with
additional amounts up to 3 inches over the north facing
hills of southern Montana and northern Wyoming. Foothill locations
will see several inches (2 to 5 inches), with upslope prone
locations like Red Lodge having the potential for greater totals. In
the mountains, anywhere from 5 to 10 inches are forecast, again
with the highest amounts over north facing slopes. Along with the
snow, breezy northerly wind gusts around 15 to 30 mph this evening
and night will likely produce some blowing snow as well, which
could further reduce visibility at times. Any wet or slushy
surfaces will freeze this evening into tonight as air temperatures
drop into the teens to single digits by Wednesday morning. Winter
weather advisories for areas along I-94 are in effect through
this evening, while the remainder of the advisories are in effect
through 5am Wednesday.

Dry, but cool conditions will prevail for much of Wednesday, with
highs in the 30s west to the teens east. Winds begin to increase
along the western foothills Wednesday evening and night as
pressure gradients tighten and winds increase aloft. Current
probabilities for wind gusts of 50 mph or greater are around 50%
for the Livingston to Nye areas. Will need to monitor for
potential wind highlites Wednesday night into Thursday.

Persistent northwesterly flow through the rest of the week and
weekend look to keep the weather forecast active with occasional
chances of precipitation and wind, which could become strong at
times, especially over the foothills west of Billings. Look for
temperatures to oscillate back and forth from above, to near, to
below normal at times (20s and 40s) with each passing system. This
looks to be a prolonged period of mountain snowfall, especially
for the west and southwest facing aspects of the
Beartooth/Absarokas. There is currently a 50% chance of 6 or more
inches of snow above 7,500 feet, while the areas near Cooke City
have a roughly 70% chance of exceeding a foot. If you have outdoor
or travel plans later this week into this weekend, make sure to
stay up to date with the latest forecast. Arends/STP

.AVIATION...

18z Discussion...

Snow showers continue across the forecast region and are predicted
to continue through 06z for most locations. As we head into the
overnight hours (after 00z) expect ceilings to lower into
MVFR/IFR range and continue through the remainder of the period.
KBIL/KSHR are forecast to see BKN015 CIGs. Gusty winds out of the
NW will continue for most of the period as well. Gusts at all
sites could reach 20kts with KLVM/K6S0 possibly reaching 30kts
before 00z. Mountains will be obscured for the entire period. WMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 017/030 019/036 026/036 025/037 023/039 029/042 031/045
    51/B    01/E    32/S    65/O    31/B    11/B    12/R
LVM 014/035 021/038 025/039 029/042 025/043 028/045 031/049
    50/B    03/S    44/S    76/O    31/B    21/N    13/O
HDN 011/027 012/038 025/037 022/036 017/039 025/042 026/045
    82/S    02/O    53/O    76/O    41/B    21/B    12/R
MLS 009/019 010/035 024/033 017/027 013/033 021/039 025/043
    51/B    00/E    42/S    62/S    30/B    10/B    11/E
4BQ 014/022 014/036 026/034 022/032 019/037 026/041 027/045
    72/B    01/B    32/S    53/S    20/B    11/B    11/E
BHK 000/017 004/033 020/031 013/027 009/032 017/038 021/041
    40/B    00/B    31/E    62/S    30/B    11/B    11/E
SHR 015/029 012/039 020/038 020/038 018/042 023/044 023/048
    82/B    01/E    52/S    65/O    41/B    11/B    01/E

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 PM MST this
      evening FOR ZONES 30>32.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 AM MST Wednesday
      FOR ZONES 36-37-56>58-66-138-169-171.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 AM MST Wednesday
      FOR ZONES 198-199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings