510
FXUS65 KBYZ 190854
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
254 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday Night...

Surface observations this morning show cold temperatures, for
this time of year, across the region with readings in the 30s to
lower 40s. By this afternoon, temperatures look to warm back into
the upper 60s to mid 70s under mostly clear skies. Breezy
southerly winds will develop east of Billings by mid-day, with
gusts into the 15 to 25 mph range common. With these winds, light
showers and a weak thunderstorm are possible by early afternoon in
far eastern Montana (15-30% chance). While this isolated to
scattered activity looks to continue into the late evening,
impacts will be minimal to none. There is a low chance for a
shower or weak thunderstorm initiating around the mountains in the
west during the afternoon as well (10-35% chance).

Thursday morning will be a bit warmer with overnight lows in the
40s to lower 50s. Thursday will be a bit more cloudy with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening (15-45% chance). Better instability and shear may
allow for a few stronger storms, though there is no severe risk at
this time. This activity could linger through Thursday night
(20-50% chance). High temperatures Thursday will range in the 70s
to lower 80s, but increased dewpoints will make it feel warmer.
Arends

Friday through Tuesday...

Pacific trof moves through the area Thursday night through early
Saturday. Drawing in plains moisture ahead of it, it will spread
good chances (40 to 70%) for rainfall across the forecast area.
Probabilities for over a quarter of an inch are generally over 50
percent east and north of Billings, with 30 percent to the
southwest during this period. After Saturday morning,
precipitation chances are very low to nil for the rest of the
weekend through most of next week. Temperatures look to stay in
the 70s on Friday, 80s Saturday, 90s for Sunday and Monday.
Probabilities for 100+ on Sunday are highest along the lower
Yellowstone Valley from Forsyth to Miles City at around 35% .
Tuesday and Wednesday sees temperatures cool back down into the
mid 80s. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

Stratus and fog area possible at all terminals this morning with
local IFR or lower conditions at times through 15z. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail through Wednesday with light and variable
winds. Isolated convection after 20s is expected over the eastern
half of the forecast area including the KSHR/KMLS/KBHK/K4BQ
terminals. Local MVFR conditions can be expected with weak
thunderstorms near precipitation areas. Convection should
dissipate by 20/03z tonight. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 048/077 056/076 056/083 058/095 062/090 059/085
    0/U 01/B    36/T    51/U    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 070 040/076 049/078 049/084 052/093 055/089 052/085
    1/U 11/B    26/T    41/U    01/U    11/N    11/U
HDN 075 047/082 056/080 055/083 056/097 061/091 057/086
    1/U 01/B    47/T    61/U    00/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 073 050/078 057/076 057/080 056/094 063/089 060/085
    1/U 12/T    46/T    82/W    10/U    10/U    20/U
4BQ 072 050/077 056/077 057/081 057/096 065/091 060/088
    2/T 21/B    46/T    72/W    10/U    10/U    10/U
BHK 071 048/074 054/074 055/079 053/091 063/090 057/085
    2/W 22/W    46/T    73/T    10/U    10/U    21/U
SHR 073 045/079 052/079 053/082 054/095 060/093 057/087
    1/B 11/B    47/T    51/U    00/U    01/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings