397
FXUS65 KBYZ 092002
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
102 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong temperature gradient today with cool temperatures in the
  30s F in the east and 50s F in the west.

- Above average temperatures return Monday lasting through
  Thursday. Gusty foothills winds Monday and Tuesday.

- Clipper system moves through Tuesday with breezy winds and light
  rain.

- Potential shift to cooler and wetter conditions starting Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Now through next weekend...

After the coldest morning of the season for most locations, high
temps will return to near or just above average across the CWA
today. Overnight tonight the gap wind threat returns to
Livingston/Nye. The pressure gradient between IDA-LWT is forecast
to reach 15-18mb by mid morning Monday as it strengthens overnight
tonight. The delta-T between YNP and Livingston is also forecast
to be around 15F, however, the 700mb winds will be pretty weak
likely only around 20kts out of the west. Nevertheless, the
strength of the gradient plus the terrain influence should be
plenty for Livingston to gust between 50-60mph early Monday
morning. As we move into Monday Night and Tuesday morning the
700mb jet sags into the region which could increase winds over the
foothills region to 40-50kts. While the pressure gradient is not
as impressive (9-12mb) the gap winds for Livingston/Nye should,
yet again, be able to reach advisory criteria early Tuesday
morning.

Large-scale ridging will be the dominat feature for the western
CONUS through midweek, however, a quick shortwave is forecast to
zip through the region during the day Tuesday. While some light
precipitation is possible across the CWA the larger impact will be
the gusty winds across the entire region. A 850mb jet behind the
cold front early Tuesday is could reach 40kts which should be able
to translate to strong winds at the surface as CAA/Subsidence
behind the front should help fore that jet down. The strongest of these
synoptic winds should be similar to that of which we saw with the
last clipper; near the Miles City area. The potential for some of
this wind to gap through the terrain near Harlowton does exist
but de to the timing of the FROPA and the orientatin of these
winds, it may prove rather difficult to see any meaningful
enhancement of the winds.

As we move towards the end of the week, there remains good
confidence amongst all models that a longwave trough will move
ashore and into the Intermountain West. This may give us our
first meaningful chance of precip in a while, which could come in
the form as widespread wintry precip. WMR

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through tonight under building high pressure
aloft. Downslope winds will begin to increase along the western
foothills tonight, with west/southwest sfc gusts of 30-45 kts
after 06z affecting KLVM and k6S0. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/062 042/064 035/060 040/065 039/053 031/049 030/050
    02/B    30/U    00/B    00/B    13/W    31/B    12/W
LVM 037/064 041/060 035/062 038/063 035/047 025/045 027/047
    00/N    11/N    00/B    00/B    44/W    31/B    23/W
HDN 029/067 041/063 030/059 034/065 035/053 029/050 026/050
    00/B    31/U    00/B    00/B    13/W    42/W    11/B
MLS 027/062 039/058 029/056 033/063 035/054 031/049 027/049
    00/B    11/U    10/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B
4BQ 028/064 041/058 031/057 035/065 040/058 032/048 028/048
    00/B    11/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    31/B    11/B
BHK 020/057 034/054 026/054 031/062 035/057 029/048 024/047
    00/U    21/U    10/B    00/B    00/B    21/B    11/B
SHR 027/070 036/060 029/059 034/066 034/055 025/047 023/048
    00/B    21/U    00/B    00/U    13/W    42/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM MST
      Tuesday FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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