599
FXUS65 KBYZ 020852
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
252 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, above normal temperatures through Friday.

- Pattern change to cooler and wetter arrives by Saturday, lasting
  into early next week. 50-70% chance of greater than 0.5 inches
  of precipitation.

- Pattern change will bring snow to the mountains, and possibly
  the foothills, this weekend into early next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...

As the next system approaches, isolated (10-35% chance)
precipitation will be possible over the west today through the
first half of Friday.

Models continue to come into better agreement for the timing of
this system, with the chance of precip increasing and spreading
east late Friday into early Saturday. The heaviest and most
widespread precip is expected Saturday morning through Sunday
afternoon before decreasing through Monday afternoon. There is
still disagreement between the models on exactly where the
heaviest precip will fall. Currently, for Saturday through Sunday,
there is a 50-70% chance of at least 0.5" of precip over the
plains and a 50-70% chance of at least 1" of precip over the
mountains and foothills.

There is still some uncertainty in how low snow levels will fall,
but models are coming into better agreement. At this time, there
is a 70% chance of snow levels dropping to at least 10 kft by
midday Saturday. By Sunday morning, there is a 60% chance of snow
levels falling to 7 kft. Currently, snow levels are expected to
be lowest Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, with a 50% chance
of falling to 6 kft or lower. However, this is also when the
chance for precipitation decreases (10-30% chance by Monday
morning).

Saturday and Sunday, for elevations above 8 kft, there is
currently a 50-95% chance of 6 inches of snow. Over the highest
peaks of the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains, there is a 70% chance
of a foot of snow and over the Bighorn mountains, the highest
peaks have a 30% chance of a foot of snow. For the foothills,
including Red Lodge, there is currently a 10-20% chance of up to 1
inch of snow.

After the system exits the region to the east, an upper low is
expected to set up over Nevada, allowing weak ridging to warm
temperatures through midweek. At this time, conditions look to
remain mostly dry, but there is uncertainty in how the pattern
develops next week.

Highs will be in the mid 70s over the west to mid 80s over the
east today and Friday. Temperatures will then cool as the next
system moves through, with highs in the 50s and 60s Saturday and
mostly in the 50s Sunday and Monday. Monday and Tuesday mornings
are expected to be the coldest, with most of the region having a
>50% chance of lows at or below freezing. Temperatures will then
warm to near normal, with highs in the 60s by Wednesday. Archer

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southwest winds
gusting 20-30 knots will decrease overnight at KLVM. Matos/TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 052/076 051/057 041/051 035/057 036/062 039/068
    0/U 11/B    69/W    74/W    21/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 074 043/075 042/054 032/047 024/055 027/060 032/067
    3/W 23/T    89/W    86/W    21/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 081 048/078 049/059 040/054 032/059 032/063 034/070
    0/U 00/B    79/W    84/W    31/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 082 053/081 053/064 042/056 032/060 035/063 037/069
    0/U 00/B    36/W    82/W    11/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 081 053/082 052/066 041/053 034/057 036/060 039/068
    0/U 00/U    25/W    93/W    21/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 084 050/086 049/069 040/055 028/058 032/061 034/067
    0/U 00/B    13/W    92/W    11/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 081 047/082 045/061 034/049 029/055 030/060 033/068
    0/U 00/B    49/T    96/W    31/B    10/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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