962
FXUS65 KBYZ 082203
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
303 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very strong southwest to west winds along the western foothills
  tonight through Tuesday morning. Gusts fo 60-70 mph are likely.

- Strong west to northwest winds across the plains on Tuesday.
  Wind gusts exceeding 50 mph are likely.

- Warmer than normal temperatures through Wednesday.

- Prolonged period of snowfall in the western mountains. Potential
  for multiple feet of snow through Wednesday, greatest on west
  aspects of the Beartooth Absarokas.

- Next shot of cold air is expected to arrive Thursday, which may
  be accompanied by accumulating snowfall through Saturday
  morning. Uncertainty remains high so please monitor the
  forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tuesday...

The main impact over the next few days will be strong foothills
winds. The strongest winds are expected to begin tonight and last
through early tomorrow afternoon. The Idaho Falls to Lewistown
pressure gradient will increase to near 20 mb with 700 mb winds
near 80 kts. Gap areas such as Livingston and Nye have a 80%
chance of seeing a maximum wind gust over 75 mph per local
guidance. The Highway 191 corridor from Big Timber to Harlowton
has a high chance (80%) of seeing a wind gust over 60 mph and a
30-60% chance of seeing a gust over 75 mph.

Warning level winds (>58 mph) further east over the plains are
more uncertain. 850 mb winds are expected to be in the 50-60 kt
range with synoptic descent and strong high pressure rises.
However, cloud cover and snowpack could act to limit lapse rates
and thus limit winds. Warm temperatures over the next 24 hours
will decrease snowpack and could increase lapse rates and winds.
Hi-Res models such as the HRRR indicate 80 m winds in excess of
40 kts across the region with mixing heights near or above 1,500 m.
Model soundings also show lapse rates increasing along the cold
front making strong winds in excess of 58 mph the more likely
outcome for these areas.

A 500 mb wave and associated low pressure system will drop down
from the Canadian prairies bringing precipitation chances in
addition to strong winds Tuesday. Models are indicating a strong
990 mb low with 30-50% rain chances in the warm sector for
locations northeast of Billings overnight tonight. More
widespread precipitation chances (40-60%) will cover the region
during the day Tuesday along the cold front. This cold front will
lead to a changing of precipitation from rain to snow tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts are expected to
remain light with the NBM showing a 20-30% chance for getting
greater than 0.10 inches of precipitation for the lower
elevations. Torgerson

Wednesday through Sunday...

Into Wednesday morning, a disturbance with some warm air advecting
in will transition from snow to mixed precip and rain. A strong
push of Pacific moisture will allow for precipitable water to be
200-300% above normal. Currently, there is up to a 20% chance for
portions of south- central and southeast MT late Wednesday
morning. Watch the forecast for areas of concern as there could be
travel impacts. As far as snowfall totals, probabilities are
showing a 20% chance or less for an inch Wednesday. A weak cold
front looks to pass through, but a rain/snow mix looks to remain
as overnight lows stay near to above freezing. Additionally, a gap
wind pattern for the Livingston/Nye/Big Timber areas returns
during the day Wednesday through early Thursday afternoon. At this
time there is a 60% chance for 50 mph and about a 35% chance for
60 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. Thursday
evening, a stronger push of cold air will cut off these gap winds
bringing more widespread breezy conditions along with more winter
precipitation through Saturday morning. Ensembles are showing
cooler air remaining in place through Friday evening before
slightly retreating back northeast. This will again open the door
for mixed precipitation. Overall, there is a moderate chance for
at least 6 inches of snow for areas east of Billings (with the
exception of far SE MT) Thursday through Saturday morning. Most of
the area has a moderate to high chance of getting at least 2
inches of snow during this time frame. Ensembles depict calmer
conditions as ridging builds back in for next week.

High temperatures will be in the 30s east to 50s west Wednesday
and Thursday. Highs Friday will vary greatly across the area with
single digits in the east and 40s in the west Friday and Saturday.
Temps start to rebound Sunday with highs in the 30s and 40s. TS


.AVIATION...

Strong winds continue over the western foothills and gap areas,
including KLVM, with gusts around 40-50 kts. These winds will
increase late this evening into Tuesday morning, with gusts in the
50s and 60s kts. For all other TAF sites, winds will increase
Tuesday morning, with gusts of 40-50 kts common by Tuesday
afternoon. Archer/Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/052 031/050 038/045 008/016 009/025 011/041 023/040
    25/R    48/O    67/O    66/S    31/E    10/B    10/B
LVM 039/050 031/054 044/051 022/044 034/048 030/048 031/046
    36/R    78/O    57/R    65/O    21/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 035/052 028/048 033/044 004/017 006/024 006/038 017/038
    47/R    49/O    78/O    77/S    42/S    11/B    10/B
MLS 033/048 024/040 028/035 902/008 002/015 002/031 012/029
    43/R    07/O    65/O    54/S    52/S    10/E    10/B
4BQ 034/051 027/042 032/042 004/014 007/022 009/037 021/037
    24/R    17/O    76/O    64/S    42/S    10/B    10/B
BHK 030/045 018/036 023/033 908/005 905/013 901/029 011/030
    55/R    05/S    75/O    42/S    53/S    10/B    10/B
SHR 029/053 024/047 032/046 009/026 012/036 014/046 021/044
    26/R    48/O    67/O    74/S    21/B    00/B    10/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday FOR
      ZONES 29>34-36-37-42-57-58-138-169-170-173-235.
     High Wind Warning in effect from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM
      MST Tuesday FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
     Wind Advisory in effect until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR
      ZONES 65-66.
     High Wind Warning in effect until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR ZONES
      65>68.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect until 5 PM MST Wednesday FOR
      ZONE 67.
WY...High Wind Warning in effect from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday FOR
      ZONE 199.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 PM
      MST Wednesday FOR ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings