250
FXUS65 KBYZ 090755
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
155 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mostly dry through Friday.

- Weather system arrives late Saturday, bringing lower elevation
  rain, mountain snow, much cooler temps, and gusty winds through
  Sunday.

- Probability of 4+ inches of snow is 50-80 percent over the
  Absaroka-Bearooth and Crazy Mountains, and 25 percent over the
  Bighorn Mountains.

- Unsettled weather with below normal temps continues next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday night...

Upper level ridge will continue to dominate our weather through
the period, but changes are coming this weekend. Satellite imagery
shows a fairly deep low cutting off along the PacNW coast, and to
our north there is a shortwave skirting west to east thru northern
SK. A weak Canadian front is dropping thru northern MT (it is
draped across the high line as of 0730z) and will bring a wind
shift to the N-NE-E today. The backdooring winds will result in
slightly cooler temps today than yesterday. Look for highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. As the ridge reasserts itself and draws
warmer air from the southwest, we should see temps further into
the 70s on Friday. SE winds will also increase over our east
tomorrow, with gusts likely to exceed 30 mph at Baker & Ekalaka
(75% chance).

A developing moist SSW flow will push pwats to 1-2 standard
deviations above normal on Friday. The moisture is courtesy of a
subtropical plume associated with TS Priscilla (currently near
southern Baja) lifting thru the SW CONUS. There are hints of a
weak shortwave and heights will be falling slowly on Friday, so
have added a slight pop for light showers in the afternoon over
mainly the south. This is generally consistent with what CAMs are
currently showing.

JKL

Saturday through Wednesday...

Upper level trough begins to creep into the region on Saturday.
Warm temperatures will continue, with highs in the 70s to low 80sF
over the plains. The chance for precipitation will increase in
the west and into the central plains into Sunday. The east looks
to stay dry until Sunday morning when a cold front associated with
the main trough energy swings through the region. The chance for
precipitation starts of low to moderate in the west Saturday,
becoming high through the central zones by Saturday evening.
Models do show some instability with this system, resulting in a
low chance for some weak thunderstorms.

The cold front will bring temperatures down into the upper 40s and
mid 50sF on Sunday. Snow levels will also drop to 6,000 feet by
Sunday morning, bringing snowfall into the southern mountains and
foothills. The chance for at least 4 inches of snowfall is 50 to
80 percent above 8,000 feet in the Absaroka/Beartooth and Crazy
Mountains, Saturday through Sunday night. Those with travel or
recreation plans in the high country should prepare for wintry
conditions. Snow levels will drop lower in the northwestern
foothills, between 4,500 feet and 5,000 feet Sunday night. As a
result, light snow is possible in Melville and Harlowton Sunday
night and Monday morning.

As for rainfall across the lower elevations, precip amounts in the
latest forecast depict a few hundredths of an inch in the
far east. Locations west of Miles City are forecast to get storm
total rainfall between 0.25" and 1" Saturday through Sunday night.
Amounts increase going west, with the highest totals in the
mountains and foothills. The chance for at least 0.25" across the
west-central zones is 25-80%, lowest Miles City and east.

Gusty winds will accompany the aforementioned cold front and
linger post-front on Sunday. Currently, the strongest winds look
to be forecast in the eastern third of the area. Wind gusts are
forecast to be in the 20s to 40s mph across southeastern MT and
northern WY, with the highest gusts along the Dakotas border.

Overnight lows will be cooler, with temperatures in the 20s and
30s Sunday and Monday night. Highs are forecast to be in the 40s
and 50sF the first half of next week.

Another system may impact the Northern Rockies by the middle of
next week. Uncertainty remains high at this time so continue to
monitor the forecast as time progresses.

Matos

.AVIATION...

High pressure aloft will continue to bring widespread VFR and
occasional high clouds through the period. A weak backdoor front
will shift winds from westerly to the northeast-east today. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 070 043/072 052/078 042/054 032/046 031/048 033/050
    0/U 01/B    04/T    97/W    21/B    11/B    33/W
LVM 072 039/075 047/072 034/051 026/044 025/048 029/051
    0/U 02/W    17/T    97/W    42/W    13/W    44/W
HDN 070 039/074 046/079 042/055 029/050 028/050 030/050
    0/U 02/W    02/W    98/W    21/B    11/B    33/W
MLS 072 042/076 051/079 044/055 029/050 031/054 034/052
    0/U 00/B    01/U    67/W    20/U    11/B    32/W
4BQ 074 043/074 052/079 044/056 031/052 034/057 036/055
    0/U 02/W    00/U    37/W    10/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 072 035/069 048/077 043/058 026/052 030/055 033/055
    0/U 00/N    01/B    35/W    20/U    11/B    32/W
SHR 075 038/076 045/078 039/056 027/053 028/054 030/054
    0/U 02/W    02/T    78/W    21/B    11/B    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings