620
FXUS65 KBYZ 241017
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
317 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong cold front will bring scattered precipitation as a
  rain/snow mix with a few rumbles of thunder today.

- Gusty to occasionally strong wind gusts (30 to 55 mph) today
  through Tuesday morning (strongest western foothills and eastern
  MT).

- Near to below normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday.
  Periods of light rain/snow possible (20-40%) Wednesday through
  Friday.

- Even colder air arrives Friday night with the potential for the
  first significant snowfall of the season across the area
  through Sunday. Stay tuned if you have Holiday weekend travel
  plans!

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...

Current analysis snows troughing starting to move onto the
northwest coast, creating southwest flow over the region. This
pattern will promote gap winds for the Livingston/Nye areas
through the morning ahead of the anticipated frontal passage mid
day. These areas currently have about a 60% chance for gusts to
50 mph and a 35% chance for gusts to 60 mph. Following the frontal
passage under a tight pressure gradient, areas of Big Timber up
through Harlowton can expect gusts 45-55 mph late morning through
the afternoon.

Ahead of the main frontal passage, warm air advection moving up
from the southeast will promote some light rain showers. Frontal
timing is expected as follows: mid day in the west, mid afternoon
central (Billings), early evening for eastern MT. Precipitation
will be quick moving and on the lighter side as dryer air rushes
in behind from the west. A rain/snow mix is likely across the
lower elevations with later precipitation falling as snow (mainly
eastern MT). Cooler air and a brief break will be likely
following the main line of showers. Then as the low begins to
wrap around later into the evening over eastern MT, conditions
will be favorable for snow. Snow amounts will generally be around
5-8 inches in the mountains with little accumulations around the
foothills. Lower elevations may see some flurries, but the area
most likely to see accumulations is eastern MT with up to two
inches possible.

The main concern with this system is the gusty winds. Winds gusts
across the area will be 30-55 mph, with the highest being across
the western foothills and eastern MT. With some instability in the
atmosphere, a few isolated rumbles of thunder are possible.
Additionally, winds may be enhanced with the convective nature of
this line. As 850 mb winds increase across eastern MT into the
late evening and overnight hours, this will create areas of
blowing snow late tonight and Tuesday morning. Use caution if
driving during this time as visibilities will be reduced. With
this, a Winter Weather Advisory is out for Fallon and Carter
counties for 2pm today through 11am Tuesday.

Following this system, cooler temperatures will be in place with
highs in the 30s to low 40s Tuesday through Friday. Northwest
flow will allow for some energy to create daily chances for
precipitation (20-40%). Increased atmospheric moisture (150-200%
of normal) along with some divergence from a departing upper level
jet could create conditions for better accumulations on Thursday.

For the weekend, ensembles are depicting cooler air and energy
dropping in from the northwest. However, there is still much
uncertainly on the duration of precipitation and the resulting
amounts. High temperatures for the weekend will be in the teens
and 20s. Watch the forecast as conditions are bound to change,
especially if you have holiday travel plans. TS


.AVIATION...

A cold front will bring winds gusting 20-40 kts across all
terminals and a line a rain/snow showers throughout the afternoon,
temporarily bringing about MVFR to IFR conditions. KLVM and KSHR
have a 30 to 55% chance of their precipitation switching to snow,
and there is a small chance of lower flight conditions if they
occur alongside the stronger winds during/behind the front. There
is also a small chance for lightning to occur at all terminals,
though confidence is not high enough to put it into the TAFs.
Vertz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 024/039 024/041 028/036 026/035 015/022 005/019
    6/T 20/U    01/E    23/J    45/J    54/J    33/J
LVM 049 019/037 021/043 029/043 026/038 013/025 002/021
    8/T 20/U    13/W    34/W    45/J    44/J    33/J
HDN 055 023/039 020/041 025/039 024/036 014/023 002/019
    6/T 61/U    02/J    23/W    45/J    65/J    44/J
MLS 047 025/034 018/036 018/033 021/032 013/021 002/018
    4/T 71/N    00/E    11/E    33/J    43/J    22/J
4BQ 051 025/034 019/038 022/036 024/035 015/022 005/019
    2/W 82/J    00/E    00/E    23/J    43/J    33/J
BHK 047 021/031 012/034 012/033 016/030 009/021 000/017
    3/W 73/J    00/B    00/B    23/J    42/J    22/J
SHR 053 018/034 014/039 022/041 020/038 010/023 002/022
    3/W 71/N    01/E    12/W    34/J    55/J    45/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to
      11 AM MST Tuesday FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings