524
FXUS65 KBYZ 011732
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1032 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty crosswinds over the foothills west of Billings today into
  Tuesday morning, strongest around Livingston to Nye this evening.
  Crosswinds may impact portions of I-90 and US-191.

- Localized blowing snow possible today into tonight with
  increased winds, but confidence remains low.

- Weather system brings precipitation (rain/snow) back to the area
  tonight through early Wednesday. Overall moderate to high chance
  of precipitation, greatest over mountains and foothills.

- Unsettled conditions continue Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...

After a cold start to the morning, rising heights and downslope
flow will allow temperatures to warm back up into the 20s and 30s
today. With this, breezy conditions will also return, mainly over
the foothills west of Billings. Currently, forecast wind gusts are
in the 30s and 40s (mph) around Big Timber to Harlowton, and 40s
and 50s (mph) around Livingston to Nye, strongest this evening
into tonight. As far as the chance of seeing a 60 mph wind gusts
goes, chances remain moderate at 40 percent around Livingston to
Nye. While gusts are likely to remain below 50 mph around Big
Timber to Harlowton, this pattern (a klondike chinook) can lead to
stronger wind gusts than modeled, so this is something to watch.
Another thing to watch is the threat for blowing snow. While low,
there is still a small chance winds increase enough to cause
localized blowing snow over the western foothills where snow fell
earlier this week. Temperatures in the 30s today before the
strongest winds develop should limit this risk though. By Tuesday
morning, the strongest winds are expected to end as cold air
advection moves into the region.

This cold air advection will be associated with our next weather
system that is expected to bring precipitation, wind, and slightly
cooler temperatures back across the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
As far as the precipitation goes with this system, look for it to
come in generally two waves. This first moves in tonight into
Tuesday morning as a subtle shortwave trough ahead of the main
system slides through the area. With this round, downslope
northwest winds off the mountains look to limit the precipitation
potential for many lower elevation locations in south-central
Montana (including Billings), but eastern Montana looks to be
spared from the downslope effects. By later Tuesday into Tuesday
night, a cold front from the main splitting trough looks to turn
winds more out of the north than northwest, allowing the second
wave of precipitation to develop mainly over the mountains and
foothills of southern Montana and northern Wyoming where upslope
enhancement looks to be in place. While precipitation may linger
into Wednesday morning, downslope winds look to regain control by
mid-day, ending any remain precipitation over the area.

As far as precipitation type goes with this system, most
locations will see all snow, but a rain/snow mix is possible over
the plains during the day Tuesday, especially along the river
valleys. For precipitation amounts, most locations have at least a
moderate chance of seeing some precipitation, with the mountains
and foothills having moderate to high chances. While most lower
elevation locations are not expected to see much in the way of
snow accumulations, generally and inch or less, the chance of
seeing 2 or more inches of snow is moderate over the foothills and
higher hills of southern Montana and northern Wyoming, and high
over the mountains. The chance of seeing more significant snow (6
or more inches) is very low for most areas, but is 10 percent
around Pryor and Lodge Grass, MT. While snowfall amounts are
lower, hazardous winter driving conditions could still develop
over portions of the region, so this will be monitored over the
coming shifts.

As far as the wind goes, gusts generally teens to 30s (mph) can
be expected with the front, so some blowing snow could also
develop (low to moderate chance). Temperatures also look to drop
into the teens to single digits Tuesday night, so any wet or
slushy roads could become slick once again.

The rest of the week into the weekend looks to remain unsettled
with periods of precipitation and wind. With passing systems,
temperatures look to oscillate around to below normal. Stay up to
date with the forecast if you have outdoor or travel plans later
this week. Arends

.AVIATION...

18z Discussion...

All sites are at VFR after some morning low clouds/fog. Expect
winds in the foothills (KLVM/K6S0) to continue to be strong out of
the west through this afternoon. After sunset (00Z) the winds at
KLVM are forecast to gust up to 40kts out of the SW. SHSN move
into the area after 02z from west to east. All sites will be
impacted at some point over the following 18 hours. BLSN may be a
concern today in the foothills and again across the region as the
new snow begins to fall. Mountains will obscured after 00z. WMR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032 025/038 018/030 019/036 026/039 022/032 016/036
    0/N 25/O    51/B    00/B    33/O    45/S    31/B
LVM 037 026/038 017/035 021/039 026/042 026/038 022/040
    0/Q 45/S    51/B    01/N    44/O    55/S    21/B
HDN 033 019/037 015/029 011/037 023/039 019/032 011/036
    0/B 36/O    82/S    01/B    54/O    56/O    41/B
MLS 027 019/036 010/019 010/034 023/035 014/024 006/029
    0/B 25/O    40/B    00/B    32/S    64/S    31/B
4BQ 032 019/036 014/023 015/036 024/037 019/031 013/034
    0/U 14/O    50/E    00/B    22/S    53/S    20/B
BHK 024 013/035 002/017 003/033 019/033 011/023 002/028
    0/U 23/S    30/B    00/Q    32/S    63/S    31/B
SHR 037 017/038 015/030 011/040 019/040 019/034 014/039
    0/U 13/O    81/B    00/B    43/O    55/O    41/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings