139
FXUS65 KBYZ 110250
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
750 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds along the foothills west of Billings tonight into
  Thursday. Wind gusts 60 to 80 mph are likely from Livingston to
  Big Timber and Harlowton. Gusts to 50 mph as far east as the
  Yellowstone county line tonight.

- A wintry mix of rain and snow, with pockets of light freezing
  rain, continue over Carter and Fallon counties this evening.
  Precipitation likely becoming all rain by late this evening into
  the early morning hours as temperatures slowly warm.

- Cold front brings colder temperatures and snow back to the area
  late Thursday into Saturday. Rapidly falling temperatures
  combined with accumulating snow may result in a flash freeze and
  treacherous travel conditions by Thursday evening.

- Greatest snow accumulations Thursday evening into Saturday are
  expected to be over the plains, generally from Harlowton to
  Billings and eastward towards Miles City and Broadus, where
  there is a 50 to 70 percent chance of at least 6 inches of snow.

- Warmer and drier weather expected to return by Sunday.


&&

.UPDATE...

Upgraded the Beartooth Foothills and Livingston area to a High
Wind Warning through the day on Thursday. Livingston just recorded
a gust to 72 mph at the airport. Latest numerical guidance and
model data suggest the peak winds for this area will occur late
tonight into the sunrise hours. Pressure gradient and H7 winds
will increase as the night progresses and with the area already
seeing gusts in the 70s we could see gusts close to 80 mph in the
Livingston area by early tomorrow morning. Also adjusted expected
wind gusts up into the 70 mph range along the US-191 corridor from
Big Timber to Harlowton where a High Wind Warning is also in
effect through tomorrow.

A couple of other wind areas we are keeping a close eye on, Red
Lodge and Stillwater county north of the Interstate. Latest
observation in Red Lodge showed a gust to 43 mph and the latest
HRRR is showing gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range in that vicinity
through the early morning hours. For areas north of Columbus the
HRRR is showing some winds just off the surface to near 60 mph
developing from late this evening through the night tonight. While
these are just off the surface (80m) there is certainly the
potential for a few strong gusts to make it to the surface. For
now will increase winds for these areas. Surface inversion may
hold enough to keep the stronger winds aloft but may need
additional wind warnings if things trend much stronger.

Extended Winter Weather Advisory for Carter and Fallon county
through Midnight tonight. temperatures remain near freezing in
this area with light freezing rain being reported in Baker. MTDOT
webpage shows icy road conditions over this area as well. Guidance
continue to suggest temperatures will increase above freezing over
the next several hours, but can`t rule out another extension
tonight if that guidance is too optimistic. Chambers

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...

Active weather continues through the second half of this week. Be
prepared and stay weather aware!

A wintry mix of warm advection rain and snow, with the potential
for pockets of light freezing rain, continue over eastern Montana
this afternoon. As the warm front pushes east through eastern
Montana late this afternoon and evening, look for lingering
precipitation to become all rain. At this time, the best chance of
seeing freezing rain remains during a 1 to 3 hour window as the
warm front moves through when temperatures aloft warm above
freezing before surface temperatures do. Currently, chances are
greatest (up to 20 percent) over Fallon and Carter Counties early
this evening. Because of this threat, the Winter Weather
Advisories remain in place from Rosebud County east for this
afternoon and early evening.

Looking west towards the foothills west of Billings, the return
of strong winds is expected today into Thursday as strong mid-
level winds, a favorable pressure gradient, and little to no
nighttime inversion setup. With this, wind gusts up to 65 mph are
forecast along Highway 191 from Big Timber through Harlowton, with
wind gusts up to 70 mph forecast from Livingston to Nye. While
winds increase late this evening, the strongest winds are
anticipated late tonight through Thursday morning. Therefore, the
High Wind Warning for northern Sweet Grass County through
Wheatland County remains in good shape. Over northern Stillwater,
Golden Valley, Musselshell, and western Yellowstone County, strong
winds in the 40 to 55 mph range look to occur late Thursday
morning into the early afternoon as well, but confidence on gusts
reaching 60 mph remains lower. By late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening, a cold front passage will end the strong wind
threat across south-central Montana.

This cold front passage late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening will bring colder temperatures and snow back to the region
into Saturday. With this, there is the potential for a flash
freeze late Thursday as rapidly cooling temperatures combine with
precipitation behind the front. The one thing to note with this is
high resolution models today indicate the drop in temperatures is
now delayed until later Thursday evening, so the flash freeze
threat may be more of a late Thursday evening commute threat.
Also, precipitation looks to start as rain over the lower
elevations before becoming snow. Either way, by Thursday night,
temperatures will be sufficient for wet or slushy roads to
freeze, likely creating hazardous driving conditions. After this
occurs, an area of moderate to heavy at times overrunning snow
looks to develop Thursday night into Saturday morning allowing
snow to accumulate over any roads that may have become icy.
Therefore, if you have travel plans late Thursday into Saturday
this week, plan for wintry conditions, or consider delaying
travel.

Looking closer at the snowfall itself, the greatest amounts are
still expected to be over the plains, generally from Harlowton to
Billings and eastwards towards Mile City and Broadus, where there
is a 50 to 70 percent chance of at least 6 inches of snow. While
uncertain, there will likely be a narrower northwest to southeast
band of heavier snow that develops between these areas where 6 to
12 inches of snow are possible. Of course, uncertainty remains on
this band as this will depend on the extend and depth of the cold
air that moves in and where the best overrunning moisture sets
up. Because of the uncertainty in the amounts and timing that
remains still, the Winter Storm Watch in effect for much of the
area remains in place.

Outside of the precipitation, temperatures Friday and Saturday
look to remain cold for much of eastern Montana with highs in the
teens to 20s, coldest in the far east. Over the foothills, current
forecast high temperatures are generally in the 30s and 40s these
days as the coldest air does not reach these locations, however,
the latest guidance suggests the cold air cold push farther west
than currently advertised. This would result in much cooler high
temperatures these days...something to watch.

Sunday into early next week, ridging looks to build over the
region allowing warmer and dry conditions to return to the region.
Arends


.AVIATION...


The band of rain/snow showers is currently located east of K3HT
and KBIL and is expected to slowly move east through the
afternoon. Showers will transition to all rain this evening and
linger over southeast MT into the overnight hours. Diminished
conditions (MVFR/IFR) can be expected at KMLS/KBHK through the
morning. Southwest wind gusts are expected to increase for KLVM
through the afternoon, with the strongest winds (50-60 kts) during
the overnight hours. A cold front entering the region Thursday
afternoon will begin as rain, transitioning to snow by the
evening. TS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/059 015/021 009/026 014/047 030/047 036/049 032/047
    17/R    88/S    42/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    33/O
LVM 045/058 030/044 034/049 033/053 034/052 037/050 033/048
    16/R    96/O    21/B    00/B    00/B    13/R    43/O
HDN 040/057 013/020 007/023 009/044 022/044 029/047 028/046
    28/R    99/S    52/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    33/O
MLS 035/046 006/011 002/015 006/038 022/040 027/045 026/042
    65/R    38/S    82/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    22/O
4BQ 038/053 013/017 008/023 013/044 025/044 030/047 029/045
    45/R    58/S    72/S    00/U    00/B    01/B    22/O
BHK 030/043 902/010 906/012 000/039 022/043 027/044 023/040
    78/O    24/S    93/S    00/U    00/B    00/B    22/O
SHR 039/059 017/028 014/035 020/054 027/052 031/052 028/050
    16/R    85/S    21/E    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
      Saturday morning FOR ZONES
      29>34-36-37-42-57-58-63-68-138-141-172-173-228-235.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until midnight MST tonight
      FOR ZONES 33-37.
     High Wind Warning in effect until 5 PM MST Thursday FOR ZONES
      63-65-66-141-172-228.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings