283
FXUS62 KCAE 220001
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
701 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers possible late this evening into Saturday as a
cold front passes. Near record temperatures again Saturday
before high pressure and dry conditions return for the start of
Thanksgiving week. Rain chances then move back in during the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Scattered light rain showers tonight.

Zonal flow aloft in place over the area with a weak shortwave
moving through tonight. Scattered showers associated with this
shortwave are west of the area and will move in over the next
several hours. Rain rates are mostly light with amounts through
tonight generally expected to be less than a tenth of an inch.
HREF muCAPE values are low so have removed the mention of
thunder tonight. Lows tonight expected to be around 60 with
widespread clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Near record temperatures Saturday before cooling down Sunday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and possibly a couple storms
  Saturday.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Developing surface low pressure is
currently seen across northern OK/KS as a shortwave impinges
here as well. Both of these features will move into the Mid
Atlantic through the day Saturday along with a surface cold
front. During the morning, a wave of showers and possibly an
embedded storm should be pushing through as PWAT`s surge to
1.50-1.60" with a strong southwesterly LLJ bringing appreciable
moisture advection to the FA. As the plume of higher PWAT`s
shifts east, a break in activity is expected where modest WAA
should bring near record afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s. The surface front should be passing through the FA
during the late afternoon and into the evening where the mean
HREF solution and recent CAM`s show isolated convective
development could be possible as MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000
J/kg develops. The main limiting factor in initiation is the
plume of moisture should be pivoting off the coast before the
front enters the FA and thus drier air may limit coverage of
convection. Severe weather is not anticipated with any storms at
this time. Drier conditions then filter in behind the front
overnight with lows in the lower 50s.

Sunday and Sunday Night: Surface high pressure and shortwave
ridging build into the FA behind the front Sunday, bringing
cooler and drier conditions. PWAT`s likely drop under 0.75" and
low level flow turns more northerly to northeasterly, bringing
afternoon high temperatures toward the low to mid 70s.
Continuing weak CAA overnight should aid in bringing low
temperatures near normal, in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler Monday before warming back above normal into the
  Midweek with increasing rain chances.

- Much cooler air expected to end the week.

Significant dry air moves into the region Monday with surface
high pressure remaining in the area, lowering PWAT`s to under
0.50". Dry conditions and temperatures closer to normal are
expected before low level flow turns out of the southwest ahead
of troughing in the central US, increasing temperatures and
moisture quickly Tuesday. A shortwave will be approaching the FA
Tuesday, bringing slight chance PoP`s but the main forcing from
the shortwave and greatest moisture (PWAT`s between 1.50-1.75")
push in Wednesday, bringing increased rain chances through the
day. Some timing differences still exist between global models
so expect some shifting still in when the greatest chance of
rain will move in between Tuesday and Wednesday. After
Wednesday, there is decent agreement in a strong cold front
pushing through into Thursday, bringing temperatures close to
normal or even below normal with drier conditions to round out
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected tonight with some cig restrictions
early Saturday.

Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching frontal boundary
will bring scattered showers through the area tonight into
Saturday morning but confidence is low in direct impacts to
terminals. Relatively light winds overnight from the southwest
should pick up to around 10 knots by 14z-15z with gusts to 20
knots through the afternoon. Guidance is suggesting some MVFR
cigs in stratus from around 11z-16z with highest confidence at
AGS/DNL so including as a prevailing group there and tempo
elsewhere.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns
expected through early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$