481
FXUS62 KCAE 160555
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
155 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing dry cold front moves east today, with noticeably
cooler temperatures into Friday. Another front is forecast to
approach late in the weekend, bringing the next chance for
rainfall along with it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler airmass settles in behind a dry cold front

Cold front is slowly sinking towards us this evening, with some
light winds on the backside of it delineating where it is
currently. It should continue to slowly push through the area
tonight and through the day, ushering in a dry and cool airmass
across the area. Skies should remain clear with strong
convergence aloft and a low PW airmass in place. Temps are
forecast to generally be in the 70s with light northeasterly
winds. Tonight, good radiational cooling conditions should be
setup across the area, allowing temps to fall into the mid to
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Continued cool and dry Friday.
- Chilly conditions again Friday night.
- Temperatures moderate on Saturday.

Friday is setting up to be the coolest day of the period, with
the center of the surface high pressure moving into the area.
Very dry air will remain across the forecast area, for much of
the day on Friday, then as we move into Friday night the center
of the surface high moves east, allowing southerly winds to
begin bringing moisture and moderating temperatures on Saturday.
At this time, dry conditions will prevail through the short term
though. As for temperatures, expect high temperatures in the
upper 60s to middle 70s on Friday. For Friday night, area should
be under clear skies, with dry air and light southerly winds.
Conditions should be nearly ideal for radiational cooling to set
up, bringing overnight lows down into the middle 40s to lower
50s. With some warm advection on Saturday due to southerly
winds, along with a good amount of sunshine, temperatures will
moderate back above normal, with highs once again back up into
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cold front approaches Sunday, then moves through Sunday night.
- The cold front will bring the next chance of rain as it moves
  through.
- Dry conditions return for early next week.

Surface cold front will be off to the west to start off the day
Sunday, then is expected to push through Sunday night. Ahead of
this front, southerly winds will continue to bring moisture across
the forecast area. Guidance still indicates at least some showers
ahead of this front. The chance of rain, and any thunderstorm
potential, will largely hinge on the strength and timing of the
cold front. The Euro remains slightly faster and stronger than
the gfs, with a little more moisture. and once again shows a
line of showers and thunderstorms arriving late Sunday into
Sunday evening. The GFS shows more disorganized showers with
less coverage Sunday evening into Sunday night. Expect scattered
showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms as the front moves
through. Behind the front on Monday, high pressure is expected
to build in bringing another round of cooler and dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period.

Clear skies, light winds, and VFR conditions are expected
throughout the period. Unsurprisingly, OGB has already seen some
patchy ground fog. Expecting this to periodically be a problem
both at OGB and AGS through the early morning hours before the
dry cold front passes through the area. Aside from that, the
period looks completely VFR. Winds should be 4-8 knots out of
the northeast during the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected to continue
through Friday. Moisture should increase this weekend, ramping
up chances for restrictions and possible convection ahead of
another front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$