346
FXUS62 KCAE 181012
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
612 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are
expected through Thursday. Unsettled conditions are possible by late
in the week into the weekend as moisture moves in from the Atlantic.
Well above normal temperatures are expected by Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong upper ridging remains firmly in control of our weather
today though the ridge is expected to weaken over the Southeastern
US tonight. Ridging will combine with surface high pressure
centered southeast of Nova Scotia to provide a dry day across
the Midlands and CSRA. PWATs are much lower than this time
yesterday, ranging from 1 to 1.25 inches, and will continue to
decrease as the day goes on. A tight pressure gradient will set
up over the FA and easterly winds could be gusty at times later
today. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny under a mix of
cirriform clouds and a few cumulus. Daytime temperatures will be
around normal values for mid-June with highs around 90 degrees.
Any lingering cumulus dissipate this evening but guidance
suggests the high-level clouds will remain. Additional low
clouds may creep in from the east towards daybreak as moisture
begins to recover. Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control for the middle of the week under
broad ridging aloft. Easterly flow will persist through much of the
column, but deep moisture will be limited. GFS ensemble mean PW are
forecast around 50%-75% of normal for mid-June. With strong
subsidence and no significant weather features impacting the area,
expect dry conditions will continue. Temperatures are forecast to be
2-4 degrees F below normal through this period as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high will slowly begin to move offshore Friday as the upper
ridge starts to flatten out. Deterministic and ensemble models
solutions indicate an inverted trough will move westward under the
ridge, bringing moisture back into the Carolinas from the Atlantic.
This return will be reinforced by lower level flow turning more
southwesterly, bringing additional moisture in from the GoMex. After
starting Friday on the drier side with PW around 1.15", values will
increase to around normal, around 1.4"-1.5" by Sunday and Monday.
The NHC maintains low probabilities of tropical cyclone formation
with this disturbance, currently only 20% through the next 7 days.
The 18/00z GFS takes this low up the east coast while the EC is a
bit more diffuse and pessimistic regarding development, but it still
bears watching. Nevertheless, it appears the better moisture will
lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday
through Monday. Precip will be primarily diurnally driven, spreading
a bit further west into the CWA from the coastline each day. Other
than that, no notable disturbances of note in the current long term
period.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up over the weekend to above
normal levels with highs in the mid 90s. We`ll keep an eye on the
potential Heat Risk for this time frame as it gets closer.
Additionally, lows will likely remain above 70 degrees in many
locations Saturday night into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR Conditions are Likely to Continue Today....

Strong upper ridging will combine with surface high pressure
centered southeast of Nova Scotia to provide a dry day across
the Midlands and CSRA. A tight pressure gradient will set up
over the region and easterly winds could be gusty at times this
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
TAF period. Skies will have a mix of scattered high-level clouds
and a few cumulus. Any lingering cumulus dissipate this evening
as winds gradually diminish but guidance suggests the high-level
clouds will remain. Additional low clouds move creep in from
the east towards daybreak as moisture begins to recover.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms may
result in brief restrictions at the terminals Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$