


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
481 FXUS62 KCAE 160555 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 155 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A reinforcing dry cold front moves east today, with noticeably cooler temperatures into Friday. Another front is forecast to approach late in the weekend, bringing the next chance for rainfall along with it. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Cooler airmass settles in behind a dry cold front Cold front is slowly sinking towards us this evening, with some light winds on the backside of it delineating where it is currently. It should continue to slowly push through the area tonight and through the day, ushering in a dry and cool airmass across the area. Skies should remain clear with strong convergence aloft and a low PW airmass in place. Temps are forecast to generally be in the 70s with light northeasterly winds. Tonight, good radiational cooling conditions should be setup across the area, allowing temps to fall into the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Continued cool and dry Friday. - Chilly conditions again Friday night. - Temperatures moderate on Saturday. Friday is setting up to be the coolest day of the period, with the center of the surface high pressure moving into the area. Very dry air will remain across the forecast area, for much of the day on Friday, then as we move into Friday night the center of the surface high moves east, allowing southerly winds to begin bringing moisture and moderating temperatures on Saturday. At this time, dry conditions will prevail through the short term though. As for temperatures, expect high temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s on Friday. For Friday night, area should be under clear skies, with dry air and light southerly winds. Conditions should be nearly ideal for radiational cooling to set up, bringing overnight lows down into the middle 40s to lower 50s. With some warm advection on Saturday due to southerly winds, along with a good amount of sunshine, temperatures will moderate back above normal, with highs once again back up into the middle 70s to the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key message(s): - Cold front approaches Sunday, then moves through Sunday night. - The cold front will bring the next chance of rain as it moves through. - Dry conditions return for early next week. Surface cold front will be off to the west to start off the day Sunday, then is expected to push through Sunday night. Ahead of this front, southerly winds will continue to bring moisture across the forecast area. Guidance still indicates at least some showers ahead of this front. The chance of rain, and any thunderstorm potential, will largely hinge on the strength and timing of the cold front. The Euro remains slightly faster and stronger than the gfs, with a little more moisture. and once again shows a line of showers and thunderstorms arriving late Sunday into Sunday evening. The GFS shows more disorganized showers with less coverage Sunday evening into Sunday night. Expect scattered showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms as the front moves through. Behind the front on Monday, high pressure is expected to build in bringing another round of cooler and dry weather. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period. Clear skies, light winds, and VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Unsurprisingly, OGB has already seen some patchy ground fog. Expecting this to periodically be a problem both at OGB and AGS through the early morning hours before the dry cold front passes through the area. Aside from that, the period looks completely VFR. Winds should be 4-8 knots out of the northeast during the day. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected to continue through Friday. Moisture should increase this weekend, ramping up chances for restrictions and possible convection ahead of another front. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$