952
FXUS62 KCAE 190040
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
840 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are
expected through Thursday. Unsettled conditions are possible by
late in the week into the weekend as moisture moves in from
the Atlantic. Well above normal temperatures are expected by
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Strong subsidence will preclude convection in the near term. A
few clouds overnight and some mixing will prevent ideal
radiational cooling however overnight lows will still drop into
the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Benign weather expected to continue in the short term with high
pressure ridging into the area. While easterly flow may lead to a
bit of a moisture increase tomorrow, below normal PWAT values still
expected leading to continued dry weather. A lingering pressure
gradient will keep winds a bit breezy out of the east each day.
Otherwise, temperatures will be right around seasonal average with
highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main concern for the long term will be the heat as we are expected
to enter the hottest stretch of the year so far. NAEFS indicate that
by Saturday into Sunday with upper ridging maintaining over the
area, 850mb temperatures will climb to above the 90th percentile and
remain into early next week. Blended guidance generally favors high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, although probabilities of
highs exceeding 100F are between 20 to 30 percent, so it is not out
of the question that one of the days Sun through Tues sees triple
digit temperatures. A bit of uncertainty as to the potential of
a moisture increase which may limit highs through cloudiness
and shower and storm coverage but regardless, potential for
moderate to major heat risk Sunday into early next week (more
info: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk).

Moisture is expected to increase late this week into the weekend as
an inverted trough pushes towards the coast of SC/GA. The National
Hurricane Center indicated this system has a low chance (20%) of
tropical development but it will lead to a plume of moisture moving
into the southeastern US. Ensembles do indicate that the strongest
push of moisture should remain to the south of the area but with
increasing probabilities of PWATs greater than an inch and a half,
expect chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
mainly favoring the southeast through the weekend. By early next
week, high probability (>80%) of PWATs greater than an inch and a
half with scattered thunderstorms developing across the area, again
expected to be diurnally driven.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR Conditions expected through the period.

High pressure will continue to extend into the area from the Mid
Atlantic region. High clouds streaming northeast from AL and GA
but most of the cloudiness will remain to the west. east-
southeast winds will diminish to less than 10 knots by 01z-02z.
Fog not expected tonight due to 20-25 kt low level jet.
Moderately strong easterly flow will continue Wednesday with
gusty winds to near 20 knots mid to late morning. Scattered to
occasionally broken VFR cumulus expected by 15-18z Wednesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief restrictions possible in
isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Friday
through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...