019
FXUS62 KCAE 201057
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
557 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record high temperatures remain possible on Friday ahead
of the next system. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible
on Saturday with a cold front before high pressure returns for
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 am for areas mainly
west of I-26 and including the CSRA. Satellite imagery, surface
obs and webcams across the region indicate dense fog has
developed in several locations. Caution should be used and extra
time given for those in their morning commutes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Early morning fog possible in the CSRA.

- Cooler behind front today.

A weak dry cold front will sag into the forecast area this morning.
As a result, moisture pooling in the CSRA may produce pockets of fog
between now and daybreak. HRRR, LAMP guidance and the latest NBM
continue to show potential for fog, so confidence is fairly
high.

Behind the front, northeast flow will bring slightly cooler
temperatures with highs ranging from the low 70s northeast to the
upper 70s southeast. PWAT`s should slowly increase through the day
and into tonight, but no precip is expected. Skies remain partly to
mostly cloudy through the period. This will also aid to limit
radiational cooling tonight with low temps in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Very warm through Saturday with some showers-storms around
  late Saturday afternoon.

Broad ridging will continue across the region Friday as a deep
cutoff low on the west coast helps linger a quasi-blocking pattern.
This will allow temps to again climb well above average Friday, with
much of the area pushing into the upper 70`s or low 80`s; high temps
Friday will again come close to record highs at both AGS and CAE.
The ridge will begin to flatten out somewhat as we move into
Saturday thanks to a series of weak shortwaves ejecting out of the
western US cutoff low. An accompanying diffuse low pressure system
will quickly drive into the region by the afternoon on Saturday,
with some height falls and increasing southwesterly moisture
advection. This will help drive PWAT`s up to around 1.25" and
actually help develop some elevated instability. So some scattered
showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the afternoon across
the area. High temps will again near record highs, climbing into the
low 80`s; EC EFI`s continue to show a pretty classic near-barely
record setting temp of warmth in this pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- A return to near average temps following by a steady warmup.
  Rain chances increase by the middle of next week.

Some cool, dry advection will push into the area following
Saturday`s front on Sunday. This will push temps back towards
average with a notable drop in surface moisture and PWAT`s on Sunday
and Monday. The deep cutoff low in the western US will finally
progress east Monday and steadily amplify heights downstream. So
temps will quickly push back well above average by mid-week; EC EFI
reflects the pattern well with anomalous heights and temps quickly.
Rain chances will then increase by mid-late week as the ejecting
cutoff eventually pushed into our region. NAEFS and EC guidance are
generally inconsistent as one would expect for days 6-8, but chances
of broad moisture and a slow moving front look probable.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fog and low clouds likely at AGS/DNL/OGB terminals this
morning.

High clouds will generally be in place across the area through the
period. Calm winds at the surface along with some lingering moisture
has caused VSBYS and CIGS to drop at the AGS/DNL/OGB terminals.
Guidance has been consistent that IFR/LIFR restrictions will
continue for the next few hours before mixing out. A front will
bring drier air into CAE/CUB, so confidence is lower for
restrictions, but MVFR or brief IFR cannot be ruled out.

Once restrictions end around mid-morning, drier air moves into
the region through this afternoon Thursday with VFR conditions
expected. Winds will be mostly light, around 5 knots or less
generally out of the N/NE. Winds return to light and variable or
calm this evening with continued high clouds across the region.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue Friday.
Increasing moisture Friday night into Saturday will lead to chances
for rain and possible restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ018-020-
     025>027-030-035-041-135>137.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$