Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
386 FXUS62 KCAE 171121 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 621 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Near to above normal temperatures are expected through the upcoming week. The next significant chance for rain arrives late Friday or Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Dry, sunny, and cooler weather expected today The cold front has pushed through the area as of this hour, with dewpoints and winds falling rapidly in its wake. Late Sunday afternoon, dewpoints were still in the mid 40s and these have now fallen into the low to mid 30s across the midlands, with upper 20s noted across the Pee Dee and western Midlands. Dry air will continue to push in as weak high pressure pushed across the area through the day. PWs atop our forecast area are currently less than 0.5", with this forecast by the HREF to remain the case throughout the day today. Solid 925-850 hPa cold air advection resides across the area, expected to continue sliding southeastward as the trough axis continues to slide offshore. With these cooler low-level temps, look for highs in the mid to upper 60s across the area. Tonight, favorable conditions for radiational cooling conditions will reside over the area as the surface high passes overhead. Winds will be light, dewpoints low, and skies clear. Local radiation scheme suggests lows in the low 30s, but think thats a bit too low and expecting lows generally in the mid to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - High pressure moves offshore, but keeps the region dry with warmer temperatures. - A weak storm system passes to the north Tuesday night, though the chance of rain is low. High pressure will be centered over eastern North Carolina at the start of the period, moving offshore in response to an approaching storm system passing through the Midwest. With the region in between these pressure centers, winds will shift to the south, promoting moisture and warm air advection. Skies should be sunny to mostly sunny with increasing cloudiness later in the day, especially across the Northern Midlands. Highs will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Northern Midlands and the lower to mid 70s in the Southern Midlands and CSRA. Low pressure swiftly passes through the Mid-Atlantic at night as its associated cold front stalls near or north of the FA. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy, especially across the north. Despite the proximity to front, the chance of rain Tuesday night is less than 10 percent though, a passing shower cannot be completely ruled out in Lancaster and Chesterfield counties. The clouds limit cooling at night with forecast lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key message(s): - Very warm Wednesday through Friday, with near record high temperatures possible by Friday. - The next chance for rain arrives late Friday and into the weekend but confidence is low. - Temperatures begin a cooling trend this weekend. Guidance is in fair agreement that upper ridging will build over the Southeastern US on Wednesday, holding in place through at least Thursday evening. The models then diverge as a storm ejects out of the Southwestern US. While the deterministic GFS breaks down the ridge and transitions to troughing by daybreak Saturday, the Euro maintains the ridge and even strengthens it resulting in two very different weekend forecasts. The NBM seems to be leaning towards the GFS solution, maintaining rain chances across the CWA starting Friday night with a cooling trend. Should the weather pattern end up closer to the Euro solution, its possible that the very warm and dry conditions will continue. Regardless of what happens this weekend, temperature anomalies during the mid to late week period favor well above normal values and could be near record values if trends continue. While the chance of rain is low through at least Friday, sufficient moisture advection will be in place and clouds should increase in coverage each day, especially if the GFS solution ends up being closer to reality. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected through the TAF period. One-line TAFs in the forecast as surface high pressure translates over the area through the day today. Winds will generally be 3-6 knots through the day. Dry airmass should keep the skies clear through the end of the period. So overall, the period is forecast to be very quiet with VFR prevailing. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue through mid-week with dry air in place. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...