887
FXUS62 KCAE 110224
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1024 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will spread into the region through mid week as high
pressure builds in from the north. Moisture will return to the area
late in the week leading to increasing chances of mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend.
Temperatures will rise to above normal values especially by the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A few storms developed mainly south of the area this afternoon along
a remnant frontal boundary. Much of our CWA remained in the clear
though, despite earlier cloud cover and morning showers and storms.
Drier air will be slow to advect into the region tonight despite
clearing skies and trough axis moving toward the Atlantic Coast.
That said, residual moisture across the southeast Midlands
particularly may lead to low clouds and/or patchy fog towards
daybreak. The NBM and MOS trends are in decent agreement with
this scenario, especially in the Orangeburg and Augusta areas.
The threat will be enhanced by weak boundary layer winds and
fairly good cooling. Overnight lows should fall into the lower
to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Long wave trough axis centered over eastern Canada and New
England will be extending south along the eastern seaboard
through the Carolina and Georgia early Tuesday morning. A mid
level short wave trough will be rotating through the base of the
trough in the morning but moisture should be quite limited with
precipitable water 1 inch or less. So, not expecting any
lingering showers. Strong subsidence expected in the afternoon
as upper heights rise in the afternoon with northwest flow.
Surface pressure ridge centered over the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic region will extend into the area. There will be a weak
surface trough near the Savannah river southeast of AGS, but
moisture quite shallow. A closed upper low over the southern
Plains will move south toward the lower Mississippi Valley near
the Gulf of Mexico...further west than earlier model runs over
the past few days. So, moisture flux through Wednesday will
remain focused across Florida with drier air to the north across
the Carolinas. So continued dry forecast through Wednesday
night. Onshore flow increases Wednesday so an increase in low-
level moisture is expected. This should result in some fair
weather clouds under the subsidence inversion. Temperatures near
or slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s. Lows mainly in the low to mid 60s...normal for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Relative high confidence forecast. The ensembles are pretty
good agreement now with developing an upper low over the Gulf of
Mexico, but generally over the western Gulf and a developing a
strong ridge over the eastern CONUS by the weekend. The deep
moisture flux appears to be focused over Florida associated with
the west-east subtropical jet in the Gulf. So, the models have
trended drier through Saturday and chance pops by early next
week as low-level moisture increases off the Atlantic. Any
showers or thunderstorms should be diurnally driven, at most
scattered and perhaps triggered by a sea breeze front. The NBM
temperature guidance is quite warm with temperatures rising each
day through Saturday. Expect temperatures to be above normal
with mid to upper 90s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through roughly 09z Tuesday before fog-
stratus likely.

Shower-storm activity has moved south and east of all terminals
as of 0200z. Winds will remain light and variable overnight as a
front approaches with fog and stratus likely to develop across
the coastal plain starting around 0900z. Confidence is highest
at OGB where LIFR conditions are likely through mid-morning
Tuesday, but remaining TAF sites will sit on the fringe of the
lowest cigs-vsby. So went with tempo groups at CAE, CUB for LIFR
cigs and IFR conditions at AGS and DNL. VFR conditions with
light north winds expected by late Tuesday morning through the
reminder of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are
currently anticipated through mid- week before showers-storms
are expected Thursday and Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...