Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
861 FXUS62 KCAE 301030 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 630 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered light showers remain possible today as Imelda heads out to sea. Dry, cool conditions likely through the rest of the week as NE flow strengthens. Rain chances increase again near the end of the long term as moisture pours back into the Southeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Relatively cool with some isolated to scattered light showers through the morning. Today and Tonight: Imelda continues to spin off the coast of Florida and has started tracking eastward, moving away from area. Locally, we could still see some isolated to scattered showers through about midday or so. The overall rain chances gradually diminish until then. A building high pressure starts moving into the area from the north, bringing drier air into the area this afternoon and tonight allowing cloud cover to start breaking up some late today. As the high strengthens, the pressure gradient is expected to tighten. As a result breezy northeast winds, gusting to around 20 mph, can be expected this afternoon. With the drier air and diminishing cloud cover, overnight lows are forecast to be cooler than they have been in recent nights. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Drier air settles into the region Wednesday The axis of an upper level trough will move out of the Southeast during the short term as surface high pressure settles into the Northeast. This will drive a dry air mass into the forecast area through breezy, NE flow. Gusts during the afternoon will be around 20 mph. Breezy winds may continue into the evening especially on the warm area lakes but speeds should remain below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. The dry air mass will prevent rainfall but the driest air won`t reach the forecast area until overnight with dewpoints dropping in to the low to mid 50s. Highs will be near normal during the day. Weak cold advection will allow for temps a couple of degrees below normal but winds will stay up overnight preventing ideal radiational cooling conditions. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key message(s): - Dry and cool conditions likely this week - Rain chances increase near the end of the long term As strong high pressure ridges into the region from the Northeast mid-week we can expect cool, dry weather through at least Friday. Mean PWAT values from global ensembles range from 40-80 percent of normal through Friday night favoring dry weather and below normal lows overnight. Highs expected in the 70s with lows in the 50s. The pattern should change over the weekend and into early next week as surface high pressure moves offshore. The spread in ensemble heights increase in this latter part of the long term, however in general models favor increasing moisture over the Southeast through onshore or southerly flow. This will lead to increased rain chances and favor a warming temperature trend. Temperatures over the weekend and into early next week will be near or above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IFR cigs with pockets of MVFR cigs are being noted across the area. The most prevalent pocket of the MVFR cigs has been over the CAE and CUB terminals. Expect these cigs to persist through much of the morning before gradually lifting to MVFR and eventually VFR after 00z-03z, depending on the terminal. Some light showers are also making their way through the Midlands at the start of the period, mainly affecting CAE, CUB, and OGB through around 16z. Breezy north to northeast winds persist through the TAF period, with gusts near 20 kts this afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Probability of VFR conditions mid- week is high with a drier pattern Wednesday through the end of the week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$