Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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342 FXUS62 KCAE 111652 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1152 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... After another cold, dry, and breezy day on Tuesday, temperatures will moderate for the second half of the week to near average values. The next chance of rain holds off until early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Well below average temperatures today and a bit breezy. Well, it was nice and cold this morning! Lows across the area were well into the 20s for most locations, ending the growing season across the forecast area. We are bouncing back nicely this morning, with temperatures in the low 40s for most areas. The pressure gradient remains pretty tight across the area this morning, with southwesterly winds gusting into the 20-25 mph range. Look for these to relax a bit this afternoon as the surface high settles in closer to the area. Highs should be right around 50F for most locations. Tonight, we should have a non-diurnal temp curve. Winds will be lightest in the first several hours before they pick up in advance of a tightening pressure gradient between the surface high to our south and a low pressure system to the north. Lows will likely be their coolest by about 2a before slowly rising as winds pick up. Expect lows between 29F and 35F, with the gradient warmer north and cooler south. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Gradual warming trend and dry weather Strong southwesterly winds on Wednesday are expected to yield a day of strong temperature moderation. The aforementioned pressure gradient will remain through mid to late morning, with increasing surface mixing allowing winds to gust upwards of 25-30 mph at times through early afternoon. Highs are expected to jump quite a bit compared to Mon/Tues with mid 60s expected for most of the area. Heights are forecast to continue rising on Thursday with surface high pressure settling across our forecast area by Thursday afternoon and evening. PWs should remain well below normal during the day, so mostly sunny skies and rising heights will help foster warm temperatures back in the upper 60s to around 70s. Overnight lows both days should be in the upper 30s or low 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key message(s): - Temperatures warming above normal into the weekend - Next possible rain chances are early next week Guidance continues to agree on the pattern evolution as we head into the weekend and into early next week. Overall, the trend has been towards a slower ejection of the mid/upper level low from the southwestern US. Additionally, this keeps the northern stream and southern stream systems separate. A strong low is forecast to push into the northeastern US and drive a dry cold front through the Carolinas and southeastern US by Sunday evening and early Monday sometime. Warm temps will likely precede this frontal boundary, with temps back up into the mid to upper 70s on Sat/Sun/Mon as a result. Its likely that this front will be dry as ensembles and operational models keep the best forcing well to our north and delay good moisture advection until a later time next week. So overall, the long term looks pretty nice temperature and weather wise. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions with breezy winds over the next 24 hours. Its nice and sunny out there as high pressure continues to push eastward and settles to our south. PWs are very low across the area, fostering continued clear skies through the entire period. Winds have been gusty early today as the pressure gradient has been slow to relax, but wind should lower by this evening. However, a strong surface low is forecast to quickly move across the northeastern US and reinvigorate the pressure gradient tonight. While surface wind should generally remain less than 10 knots across the area, a very strong low-level jet on the order of 40+ knots at 2000 feet is forecast to develop tonight. Low- level wind shear is very likely at all TAF sites for an extended period of time tonight, beginning around 06z and then persisting through 13z or 14z when surface mixing should increase winds at the surface. Gusts by this point will likely range from 20-25 knots through the end of the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue into at least the mid week with drier air in place. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...