Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
714 FXUS62 KCAE 080045 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 745 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... More patchy fog is possible tonight before another round of rain moves in late tonight through Monday. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid- week period while temperatures remain below normal. The next chance of rain arrives Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key message(s): - More fog is expected to develop tonight, where it could be dense in spots, but it is not expected to be as widespread as last night. - Rain chances increase tonight, but mainly toward Monday morning. Cloudy and cool conditions remain locked in this evening as some cirrus slowly wanes across the region. Despite the cirrus gradually moving out, a stratus deck is seen on satellite across much of the state this evening and is not expected to diminish much overnight as shown in model guidance. There is a hint that a couple breaks may be possible tonight into the Pee Dee and parts of the northern Midlands, but confidence is not high in this. All in all, with plentiful low level moisture remaining trapped under dry air aloft, weak flow in the boundary layer, and crossover temps around 38-41F, more fog development is expected tonight. Spots of dense fog cannot be ruled out if any break in cloud cover is seen or stratus builds down more aggressively, but it is not expected to be as widespread as last night. Overnight lows bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s generally before a shortwave currently entering the Mississippi Valley moves into the region by Monday morning, bringing back rain chances to the FA. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Chance of rain on Monday, mainly in the morning. - Drier and Continued Cool on Tuesday. Monday and Monday Night: A weak upper level trough axis will approach from the west in the morning, then shift across the area in the afternoon. A northwest flow will then develop aloft at night on the back side of the trough axis. Rain will spread into the area during the early-mid morning hours, with probabilities in the high chance to likely range. Precipitable water values do not appear to rise much above 0.75 to 1.00 inches, so intensity and overall rainfall amounts should remain light. While there could be a lingering rain chance into late afternoon with the passage of the trough axis, the bulk of the precipition should come to an end around midday or by early afternoon. Temperature profiles appear to support all rain for this event, but the probabilities are non-zero for a few flakes up toward the Catawba region. Temperatures will be held down significantly by the precipitation, cloud cover and northerly flow. Have adjusted forecast highs from the blended guidance down a couple of degrees, with most areas only expected to warm into the lower to mid 40s across the Midlands and upper 40s to lower 50s across the CSRA. Skies will begin to clear as drier air moves in during the nighttime hours. Cold air advection will contribute to cool overnight temperatures, with lows in the 20s most areas. Tuesday and Tuesday Night: A nearly zonal flow will prevail aloft, while surface high pressure settles over the region during the day then shifts to the east at night. There should be a considerable amount of sunshine during the day, but the continued strong cold air advection will result in another unseasonably cool day with highs 10- 15 degrees below normal. A southwest flow will develop due to return flow around the surface high at night, resulting in moderating temperatures with lows in the lower to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key message(s): - Dry and warmer Wednesday and Thursday. - A strong cold front will move through on Friday. An upper level trough will prevail over the eastern half of the country during the mid-week period, with a southwest flow in place at the surface. Moisture will be very limited, so dry conditions are expected. Temperatures will moderate to near normal during this period. Ensembles support another deep upper trough and associated strong cold front at the surface moving through Friday and Friday night. This will result in the next chance of rain across the area. Behind this cold front, a dry and considerably cooler airmass will settle in. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IFR and LIFR conditions expected into Monday. A widespread deck of stratus is locked in place across the area with persistent low level moisture. As of 8pm, ceilings are sitting between 700-1500 feet and should continue to fall to IFR for all sites between 0200 and 0400 UTC. Vsby will likely steadily fall as well overnight with some dense fog possible at times, but confidence is lower on those vsby restrictions. There is enough confidence for LIFR conditions, mainly due to cigs, closer to sunrise. After 12z, some showers will push into the area, likely lasting through late morning. IFR conditions will likely through this period of showers into the afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering restrictions late Monday but drier air expected Tuesday through the end of the period. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$