050
FXUS62 KCAE 161753
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1253 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and breezy today ahead of a dry cold front. Near to above
normal temperatures are expected through the upcoming week. The
next significant chance for rain arrives late Friday or
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Breezy, warm, and dry today with cooler overnight temperatures
behind a cold front.

Satellite imagery early this afternoon reveals mostly clear
conditions across the region. Upper trough is located over New
England with associated cold front still northwest of the
forecast area. The induced pressure gradient has generated
breezy west winds ahead of the front, with occasional gusts of
20-25 mph. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through 3 pm,
but will continue to monitor obs to see if early cancellation
would be warranted. Strong warm advection has bumped
temperatures into the mid and upper 70s so far today, with a few
low 80s still not out of the question before the frontal
passage.

The front is forecast to push through the area between 1p and 5p,
with dewpoints falling quickly along and behind the boundary and no
precip expected. Winds should then decrease and become northwesterly
with the gradient weakening and high pressure filling in from the
west. The cooler airmass will allow for lows overnight to fall into
the upper 30s and low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dry high pressure fills in with low dew points and humidity.

Deep dry advection is expected throughout the day Monday as
northwesterly flow builds in aloft behind the dry front from
Sunday. Winds will be persistent out of the northwest early,
but become relatively light compared to Sunday as the pressure
gradient quickly weakens as the high fills in by the afternoon.
Temps will run a bit cooler Monday thanks to some weak cold
advection, but still climbing into the upper 60`s. The warmer
trend starts Tuesday as the surface high shifts offshore and
allows southerly component flow to develop ahead of a quick
moving low and surface front; moisture still remains too low for
any notable precip chances with this front. Temps will climb
into the low 70`s as south- southeast winds pick up in the
afternoon. This front will weaken and not quite make through the
area, stalling across the area and keeping some elevated dew
points and PWAT`s in place.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Warming trend expected through the end of the week.

Ridging will build through the middle and end of week with above
heights and temps filling in across the region, downstream of an
amplifying trough in the central US; EC EFI and NAEFS highlight
the expected pattern well with 90th+ percentile height and temp
anomalies by the end of the week. Moisture and PWAT`s will
remain somewhat elevated through the end of the week as
southwesterly continues deep advection into the region, but
there isn`t a reservoir of deep moisture nearby. So we won`t see
truly anomalous moisture advection until next weekend, ahead of
the next stronger low pressure system. This is also the next
best chance for any notable precip chances across the region.
NAEFS and EC guidance however remains very inconsistent over the
progression of this next system with a fairly complex synoptic
pattern setting up over the CONUS, with numerous cut off lows
meandering under a broad ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR expected through the period.

SKC through the period. WLY winds continue to be gusty this
afternoon at 20-25 knots. After a frontal passage late this
afternoon or early this evening, winds becoming NWLY with gusts
diminishing after 17/00z. Winds then light and variable to calm
after midnight into Monday morning. Dry air will preclude any fog
concerns overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue through
mid-week with dry air in place.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for SCZ016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$