846
FXUS62 KCAE 160012
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
712 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Near to above normal temperatures are expected this weekend and
into much of the upcoming week with low rain chances. The next
significant chance for rain arrives late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Mild night with breezy winds

A nocturnal inversion will hinder some of the higher wind gusts
seen earlier in the day. However we could still see gusts
around 20 mph through the night as a dry front approaches. Area
lakes will be able to mix down even higher gusts as the warm
waters allow mixing further up into the 35 to 45 kt low level
jet. Gusts over area lakes may exceed 30 mph prompting a Lake
Wind Advisory beginning at midnight. Elevated winds will keep
lows on the warmer side too, generally only in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- A dry front will bring gusty winds and drier air Sunday into
Monday.

A sharp trough continues to dig southeastward into the Ohio Valley,
with associated surface low and front dragging towards the area.
Increasing pressure gradient ahead of the front Sunday will yield
some gusty winds, particularly in the morning when the inversion
mixes out. A Lake Wind Advisory is up for Sunday morning and
afternoon for some gusts over 30 mph. Thanks to the increasing
southwesterly flow, temps will warm into the upper 70`s or low 80`s
by Sunday afternoon. The surface front will push through from the
northwest late Sunday setting up a strong dry advection regime into
Monday; dew points will fall from the 50`s Sunday morning to the low-
mid 20`s Monday morning. Cold advection is not terribly strong
behind the front, so high temps on Monday will still reach the upper
60`s and wind gusts should subside as the high pressure center nears
the area in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Steady warm up throughout the long term period expected with
little to no rain chances.

Behind the front from early in the week, steady ridging aloft and
rising temps are expected through Friday as the long wave synoptic
pattern pivots slightly east. EC EFI and NAEFS comparisons
throughout the week summarize things well, with temps and heights
increasing each day to 90th+ percentile anomalies for Wednesday
through Friday. While rain chances remain very low throughout this
period, moisture and cloud cover will increase after Wednesday as
southwesterly flow increases PWAT`s into the weekend. There next
weather maker will be a fast moving trough that slides to our north
late next week into the weekend, but moisture return and forcing are
highly variable across guidance so rain potential remains low for
now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR expected through the period.

Only a few pockets of high clouds are forecast during the next
24 hours. An approaching dry frontal boundary is anticipated to
bring some LLWS from about 03z-13z, despite increasing surface
winds during this time. Winds shift from southwesterly at the
start of the TAF period to more westerly and becoming gusty,
especially after 13z. Gusts are likely to be in the 20-25 kt
range, with higher gusts possible. After the front passes, winds
shift more northwesterly around 21z, and are expected to
gradually diminish, but remain breezy.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue into
next week with dry air in place.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM EST Sunday
     for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
     135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM EST Sunday
     for GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$