Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
002 FXUS62 KCAE 040019 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 819 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues the remainder of today and Saturday. Temperatures slowly warm Saturday and Sunday, though rain chances increase Sunday. Rain chances carry into early next week as moisture increases across the region with onshore flow. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Key message(s): - Calm and cool weather continues. Surface high pressure continues to build in from the northeast with persistent cool and dry advection. The only feature of note overnight is some high level clouds pushing in from the southeast, seen in water vapor imagery and associated with a subtle 250mb shortwave trough. This will help limit radiational cooling overnight, but the aforementioned cool and dry advection will still help push low temps into the upper 50`s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Continued dry weather Saturday with temperatures starting to gradually warm. - Slight chance of showers into the Southern Midlands and CSRA Sunday with near normal temperatures. The general outlook for the short term period remains similar to previous forecasts. Upper ridging should continue to remain overhead through the period but surface high pressure to the north will begin to slowly shift off the East Coast through the period. This should bring a pleasant day Saturday with temperatures that near the mid to upper 70s, though a couple places may push toward 80 as low level flow begins to become more easterly to southeasterly. This should also bring moisture that slowly increases, but dry weather is expected. Sunday sees much of the same except moisture should increase further a PWAT`s approach 1-1.2". 12z deterministic and ensemble guidance has begun to show more limited moisture transport than previous runs and thus only slight chance PoP`s toward the Southern Midlands and CSRA during the afternoon and into the evening. A couple showers could be possible here but a washout is not expected by any means. Temperatures Sunday should warm a bit (low 80s) as flow becomes increasingly out of the southeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key message(s): - Temperatures near normal through the midweek with slight rain chances. - A cold front approaches from the northwest on Wednesday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The biggest change in the extended forecast is a bit of a drier trend in the 12z deterministic and ensemble guidance. Surface high pressure is expected to continue shifting off shore with upper riding growing weaker through the period, allowing increasing moisture transport from the southeast to occur but the amount of moisture being tapped into has trended lower and thus PoP`s max out at slight chance through the extended period. GEFS and EC Ensemble guidance yesterday showed PWAT`s reaching as high as 160-170% of normal but the 12z GEFS and 06z EC Ensemble now peak between 110-140% of normal. Thus any rain chances next week may end up being a bit more isolated that previously forecast, though temperatures should still trend close to normal through Wednesday. Sometime Wednesday afternoon into Thursday a shortwave trough is progged to move into the upper Great Lakes with an associated surface front moving into the region, but with the current downward trend in available moisture ahead of the front, PoP`s have decreased slightly each day. Temperatures then cool down behind the front Thursday afternoon with a drier airmass moving in, likely keeping cool/dry conditions in the late week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions likely through the TAF period. Satellite imagery shows some high clouds moving over the region from the west with some lower clouds moving in from the east. That said, guidance suggests the terminals will only see the high clouds overnight, but would not be surprised if OGB saw some of the lower clouds, still VFR, at times. These lower clouds are anticipated to hold off til after daybreak. Winds are expected to stay elevated near 5 kts overnight, then shift more easterly and increase to near 10 kts through the day. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture returns to the region Saturday which will lead to increasing rain chances and the possibility of daily restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$