047
FXUS62 KCAE 091805
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
205 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will increase across the region tonight as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible this evening ahead of the front. The front will stall
near the area Monday morning. Scattered showers are expected
Monday, especially near the front across the southeast Midlands
and CSRA into the evening. Drier air will spread into the region
mid week as high pressure builds in from the north. Moisture is
expected to increase late week with widely scattered diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures are
expected to be above normal mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows passing mid to high
level cloudiness across the northern half of the forecast area.
A narrow line of showers has developed in the northern Midlands
but surface observations are not reporting much in the way of
precipitation as it moves east thus far, likely due to
relatively drier air near the surface. WNW flow continues across
the forecast area this afternoon as an eastward moving trough
passes mainly to our north. At the surface, a cold front is
slowly moving towards the CWA from the north and west. As the
front approaches, there is the potential for two rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. The first will be this evening though
CAMs suggest the rain threat will remain confined to the
northern half of the FA. It is the second area of convection for
later tonight that poses a regionwide risk for rain. While the
SPC Day 1 outlook maintains a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe
weather through tonight, instability is lacking at the moment.
Will need to monitor conditions as the remainder of the day
unfolds but the greatest threat for any stronger thunderstorms
appears to be this evening across the northern counties which
will be closer to the best lift. Daytime temperatures remain
largely on track to reach the lower to mid 90s except across the
far north and west which could only reach the upper 80s due to
the aforementioned cloud cover. More clouds will be around
tonight limiting nocturnal cooling with forecast lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday and Monday night...The models are more aggressive with
scattered showers especially across the southern portion of the
CWA Monday morning. So raised pops based on latest
deterministic guidance and NBM trends.

Positively tilted and amplified long wave trough from New
England southwest to the mid Mississippi Valley. Relatively
strong mid level westerly flow across the region. The surface
front is expected to stall near the area, more likely near the
CSRA and southeast Midlands based on 12z guidance including
CAMS. Scattered showers expected in the morning moving east
toward the coast associated with mid level short wave moving
through the westerly flow. Moisture flux appears to maximize
around 15z with precipitable water 1.8-1.9 inches near the
front. Showers enhanced by warm advection in addition to DPVA.
With relatively strong low to mid level westerly flow, although
brief heavy rain possible, expect storms to be moving. A few
thunderstorms possible but probably focused more in the warm
sector at least early in the day. The short wave trough should
move east mid morning so expect a decrease in convective
coverage from west to east. The air mass appears to dry out from
northwest to southeast through the day and evening, but
precipitable water remains above 1.5 inches in the southeast
Midlands overnight. As long wave trough amplifies later in the
day, a strong short wave will approach from the northwest
Tuesday evening and a weak surface wave may form near the front,
probably over the coastal plain. The NBM guidance suggests
showers will increase again across the southeast Midlands, so
scattered showers/numerous near I95 mainly before midnight. Then
as the surface low moves away from the area, expect dry air
advection. With showers in the area and considerable clouds,
high temps below normal in the low to mid 80s. Low temps near
normal in the 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...The front will become more diffuse
and probably shift further south. Drier air will spread into
the area Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Precipitable water decreases to near 1 inch, lower in the
Piedmont/north Midlands. The NBM has a slight chance pops in
the east Midlands, but cut these pops a bit. Max temps closer to
90 and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Uncertainty remains although NBM qpf is minimal. The ensembles
are trending much drier during the period as upper low
development in the Gulf of Mexico develops further to the west
or retrogrades faster. Southerly moisture flux appears minimal
into east central GA and central SC, focused to the south across
Florida and possibly along the GA and SC coast...at least until
late in the period. Convection expected to be mainly diurnally
driven isolated/widely scattered mainly late week into the
weekend. Temperatures warming to above normal by later in the
week as the upper ridge out west starts building east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows passing mid to high
level cloudiness across the northern half of the forecast area.
A narrow line of showers has developed in the northern Midlands
but the line is passing north of CAE/CUB with no impacts
expected. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible in
the evening but are expected to once again pass north of the
terminals. Winds will be gusty at times through the evening but
should diminish after sunset. Additional cloudiness is expected
to move in from the north and west tonight with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms towards daybreak. Have omitted this
risk from the TAFs for now until confidence increases in regards
to timing and location. Shower and thunderstorm chances may
persist through the remainder of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog and/or stratus
possible through much of the week. Afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms may also bring restrictions at times.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$