202
FXUS62 KCAE 120817
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
417 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The region begins to transition to a more summerlike pattern.
Hot and humid conditions, along with less organized and more
typical pulse storms are expected. This pattern will persist
into the weekend and through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Typical summertime scattered convection expected this
  afternoon into this evening, coverage maybe greater than was
  seen Wednesday.
- Muggy conditions with heat indices between 95-100F possible.

High pressure remains off the Southeast coast today as a
diffuse surface front remains stalled across the FA today,
moving little through the day and into Friday. The morning is
starting out with some patchy fog and a stratus deck as plenty
of low level moisture is lingering but this should quick burn
off, giving way to scattered to broken cumulus clouds, though
southerly low level flow will allow afternoon highs to reach the
upper 80s to near 90 once again as dew points in the low 70s
continue. One caveat is peak temperatures may be a bit lower in
spots where convective initiation occurs prior to peak heating.

Overall, we are starting to get into a rinse and repeat pattern
with summertime pulse convection chances again this afternoon
and into this evening. As was seen yesterday, the stalled front
into the northern and central Midlands could provide an axis for
convective development after 17-19z while the sea breeze and
outflow boundaries serve as other sources of forcing across the
FA. There does appear to be a weak shortwave that will round the
off shore high and move in during the afternoon and evening,
thus while scattered coverage is expected, convection could
become a bit more widespread during the late afternoon through
the early evening. The environment will be characterized by
PWAT`s near 2" and plenty of instability (SBCAPE between 1500
and 2500 J/kg). Deep layer shear continues to be on the low end
(around 10-15 kts) and thus another strong pulse environment is
expected where the main hazards would be potential downburst
winds in collapsing updrafts and heavy rainfall. Due to the
weaker steering flow some cells could remain over a given
location for some time, contributing to this heavy rainfall
risk. This forcing from the shortwave and lingering elevated
instability also may allow showers/storms to continue into the
early overnight before largely dissipating into Friday morning
with lows once again in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- High aloft and a the surface will bring summerlike conditions
  to the region. This pattern will also bring diurnally driven
  showers and storms.

Surface high pressure off the southeastern coast will continue
to bring moisture inland through Saturday. In addition, ridging
aloft remains off the Ga coast. The surface trough that has been
situated across the forecast area will be mostly gone. So, with
no significant surface boundaries across the area, afternoon
convection each day will be highly dependent upon sea-breeze
moving inland, weak remnant boundaries from previous days
convection, and any shortwave energy moving across the area.
For the most part, scattered to numerous showers and storms
should be seen during peak heating. Although temperatures will
remain near normal, high moisture will bring heat index values
into the middle 90s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
- A continuation of the high aloft and at the surface will
  continue to keep summerlike conditions across the area. This
  pattern will also bring diurnally driven showers and storms.

Little change in the upper and surface patterns will mean that
much of the region will be experiencing a typical summer time
period of temperatures with readings slightly above normal,
high heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s, and
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms each
day through the longer term period. Can not completely rule out
the need for heat advisories late in the longer term forecast
based on latest forecast apparent temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions at most TAF sites with IFR and LIFR restrictions
possible by 08-10z at all sites. Restrictions associated with
storms possible this afternoon into this evening.

Scattered high clouds are moving overhead at the moment as
satellite imagery shows stratus and pockets of fog forming
across the area. OGB has already been seeing SCT to BKN stratus
that should continue before daybreak while AGS has seen pockets
of fog at times. These IFR to possible LIFR restrictions
continue to be expected at all sites starting between 08-10z,
though confidence is a bit lower toward AGS/DNL as the main item
bringing restrictions to AGS may end up being fog rather than
stratus. LAMP and HRRR guidance continue to show this stratus
deck and IFR to LIFR restrictions until around 13-14z before
this starts to mix out, though as noted earlier, LAMP guidance
is not as confident in stratus related restrictions as it was
earlier toward AGS/DNL. The rest of the period sees cumulus and
scattered showers/storms after 17-19z, though coverage maybe
slightly greater than was seen yesterday and thus at this time I
have added a PROB30 at all sites through this afternoon into
early this evening. Some of this activity may linger mainly near
CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL into the early overnight, but should clear
toward the end of the period. Winds look to be light (5-7kts)
out of the south to south-southeast through the day today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief flight restrictions are
possible during the late week with typical summertime
thunderstorms throughout each day and into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$