884
FXUS62 KCAE 151041
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
641 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front moves in from the north today, then drops south of the
area on Sunday. Mainly expect isolated afternoon and evening
convection through the weekend. High pressure, drier conditions, and
slightly above normal temperatures are then expected through much of
the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The key message for today continues to be the heat this
afternoon.

Upper ridge continues to build over the region today
into tonight as an upper trough slides eastward. At the surface,
a front over the Mid-Atlantic slides south and through the
region this afternoon. Ahead of the front, temperatures are
expected to rise to the mid to upper 90s, and some places could
see the warmest day of the year so far today. In addition,
moisture levels rise somewhat as dew points are expected to rise
into the upper 60s to around 70. This combination will likely
lead to heat index values around 100 for much of the forecast
area this afternoon. That said, some afternoon cloud cover is
expected to develop, which could limit just how warm we get
today. Nonetheless, it will likely be 5-10 degrees above average
for this time of year. Be sure to take plenty of breaks and
hydrate if you are spending time outdoors today, especially this
afternoon.

With the increase in moisture, front moving through from the
north, and a sea breeze boundary moving in from the east, there
is potential for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over
the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA this afternoon into evening.
The greatest chance for thunderstorms would be along and east of
the I-95 corridor. Overnight lows remain mild, generally in the
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday Night: Upper level ridging will be centered over
the region on Sunday while at the surface a cold front will
eventually stall out south of the area. Lingering moisture and weak
to moderate instability could support isolated afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the central Midlands south
through the CSRA according to the latest high resolution mesoscale
models. An onshore flow and diurnal cloud cover should result in
high temperatures cooler than Saturday. It appears that the
deterministic NBM is on the low end of the ensemble spread, so
raised forecast temperatures to show highs generally in the lower to
mid 90s. Heat index values could approach 100F.

Monday and Monday Night: Upper level ridging will persist over the
region, however as surface high pressure extends across the area
from off the New England coast, the deeper moisture will shift west
of the area. This should result in rain-free conditions.
Temperatures will remain above normal, but overall similar to
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridging will remain across the eastern US into midweek, with
ensembles then showing the ridge lifting northward and taking on a
more west-east orientation into late week. This could allow an
inverted upper trough to retrograde south of the region and
bring in slightly more moisture late week. While the overall
patter still appears to be dry, there is the possibility of some
sea breeze/diurnal convection across eastern areas Thursday and
again on Friday. Temperatures will remain just above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR likely through the TAF period.

Mainly clear skies this morning give away to a cumulus field
after about 15z or 16z. A boundary moving through the region
today could spark some isolated showers and thunderstorms around
the area this afternoon and evening. Confidence remains low in
whether any of this activity affects any of the terminal, so am
keeping mention of it out of the TAFs for now. Winds are
expected to become northeast at CUB/CAE after 15z or so.
AGS/DNL/OGB are likely to be light and variable as the boundary
is forecast to linger near these terminals. Winds at all
terminals are expect to shift to east southeast after 22z or so.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions although isolated to scattered afternoon showers
or thunderstorms are possible Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$