Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
522 FXUS62 KCAE 230600 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 100 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass through the region early this morning. Behind the front, temperatures will cool down, but still remain above normal through the middle of the week. A stronger front will move through by Thanksgiving, bringing additional rain chances and much colder temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Dry and not as warm today. A cold front is slowly moving through the forecast area bringing drier air in from the north. Winds are turning north to northwest and dewpoints are falling into the 50s. The last lingering showers have moved off to the east, so the rest of tonight should feature fairly benign weather, with lows falling into the mid 50s for lows. With the shortwave trough to our east for the remainder of the day, drying northwest flow aloft will build into the region along with surface high pressure. PW values fall to around 0.5" by this evening, and further drying will drop dewpoints into the 40s tonight. Highs this afternoon should range from the low 70s north to mid 70s south under sunny skies. Lows tonight fall into the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Cooler and dry for Monday as surface high pressure builds into the area. Following the front from Sunday, dry high pressure will steadily fill in across the area on Monday. The airmass behind the front is not terribly cool or dry, but still a notable change from record- near record setting airmass prior. But the pattern is amplifying very quickly downstream of the approaching trough, so while surface dew points and PWAT`s will drop back towards average, high temps will still push back above average, in the low 70`s. Heights will continue to rise late Monday as southerly component WAA ramps up ahead of the approaching trough along with a steady increase in PWAT`s overnight into Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key message(s): - Rain chances increase throughout Tuesday and Wednesday as a front moves through. - A strong front will bring an abnormally cold and dry airmass for late week and next weekend. The approaching trough will drive further WAA and moisture advection into the area Tuesday. Guidance is fairly consistent in pushing the strongest WAA and therefore rain chances to our northwest with the best 850-500mb omega, but some scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms are expected, especially late Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday. The trough will progress east into Wednesday and is when guidance becomes a bit more varied in how much precip then gets pulled into our area. ECE is a bit more progressive with the trough and surface reflection and therefore allows more moisture convergence and instability thanks to better height falls; GEFS is the opposite and drives a slow trough more north with less precip over the area. Either way it doesn`t appear to a major rain maker either way, with even the 90th percentile solution in the LREF showing less than an inch. Beyond Wednesday, the surface front will eventually kick through as a reinforcing trough digs southeast. The airmass behind this front is anomalously dry and cool, which is very evident in the EC EFI and NAEFS. So abrupt shift from anomalous warmth to anomalous cold is expected. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the 24hr forecast period. A cold front will push through the region early this morning bringing drier air. Depending on how fast the drier air can move through, there is a slight chance of some brief VSBY restrictions at OGB/AGS, but they shouldn`t last too long. Otherwise, SKC to SCT clouds AOA 5-8kft MSL this morning becoming SKC everywhere this afternoon. Winds should be light variable until the front passes, then shift to the northwest. Winds pick up from the northeast around 5-8 knots by 14z before shifting back to the northwest during the afternoon but remaining relatively light. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns expected through early next week. By mid-week, another approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday could bring a return of restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$