323
FXUS62 KCAE 101726
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
126 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will lift off the southeast US coast this weekend,
resulting in greater rain chances along with cooler and breezy
conditions. High pressure will then prevail through the middle
of next week, with dry weather and near to slightly above-normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cloudy, breezy, and cool conditions continue through the near term.
- Lake Wind Advisory extended into late Saturday morning.

An upper trough is currently being analyzed over the Southeast this
afternoon. Meanwhile, an inverted surface trough off the coast
continues to develop. The upper trough is expected to strengthen and
dig further south through the period. As a result, the inverted
trough is forecast to transition to a developing coastal low through
the overnight hours. As this transition occurs, the pressure
gradient, especially in the eastern forecast area, is expected to
tighten, leading to continued breezy winds. Gusts of 25-30 mph can
be anticipated through the overnight, with the highest gusts likely
in the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA. Therefore, have extended the
Lake Wind Advisory into late Saturday morning. Overall rainfall
chances remain on the lower side (~20-30% mainly overnight) through
daybreak tomorrow, but there are a few showers that are moving
toward the eastern portions of the forecast area. So, can`t rule out
isolated rain showers in the eastern areas this afternoon into
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler and breezy through the weekend with chances for showers
  in the east.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Surface low pressure will
strengthen and lift north along a baroclinic zone off the
southeast US coast, while an upper low closes off over eastern
Georgia. A tight surface pressure gradient will persist,
maintaining breezy north-northeast winds to start the weekend.
Wind gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible at times, likely
highest across the central Midlands. The ongoing Lake Wind
Advisory has been extended until 15Z Saturday morning.

Given the proximity of the coastal low and placement of the
upper low to the south, deep moisture is expected to penetrate
well inland. Most of the CAMs are in good support showing
scattered to perhaps numerous showers over the area, with the
greatest coverage across the Pee Dee and eastern Midlands.
Extensive cloud cover, cooler northerly flow and precipitation
will keep high temperatures down into the upper 60s east to
lower 70s west.

Sunday and Sunday Night: The upper trough axis will shift east,
as the coastal low lifts toward the North Carolina coast.
Sufficient moisture should remain in place, supporting mostly
cloudy skies and scattered showers across most areas.
Showers should diminish and skies begin to clear from the
southwest beginning Sunday night as a drier northwesterly flow
develops. The surface pressure gradient will relax a bit, with
wind gusts down to 15-20 mph for most areas. High temperatures
should moderate some, with lower to mid 70s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures warming to above average with dry weather.

Strong upper ridging will become established over the southern
Plains through the long term period, placing the region along
its eastern periphery with a northwest flow aloft. Blended
guidance supports a dry forecast, with near to slightly above
normal temperatures. However, it should be noted that weak
disturbances in the northwest flow aloft can sometimes trigger
convection not resolved well by the models.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions with breezy winds through much of the
TAF period.

Satellite imagery is showing that the lower clouds are starting to
break up across the forecast area. So expect the MVFR cigs to
improve to VFR by around 20z. VFR cigs are then expected to continue
through late in the period when the potential for MVFR cigs return.
A few rain showers are possible this afternoon into tonight, but
confidence isn`t high enough at this time to include in any of the
TAFs. Rain chances pick up late in the period in the eastern
portions of the forecast area, so have added a PROB30 group at OGB
for the time being. North to northeast winds are expected to prevail
through the TAF period. Periodic gusts to 25 kts or higher are
likely for much of the period as well, with a slight lull in the
winds overnight.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$