544
FXUS62 KCAE 181719
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1219 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gradual warming trend continues this week with temperatures
approaching near record highs by Friday before a cooler
conditions return for the weekend. The next chance for rain
holds off until late Friday or Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Warmer temps this afternoon and tonight.

High pressure continues to push offshore this afternoon.
Meanwhile, an upper shortwave over the Upper Midwest is forecast
to move eastward, passing to our north overnight. A weak frontal
boundary associated with this shortwave is expected to move
along with it. As such, an increase in moisture is forecast
tonight, allowing dew points to rise into the mid 40s to around
50. However, an rain associated with this front this far south is
expected to be squeezed out as it reaches the mountains. So,
expect a dry night with some cloud cover and much warmer than
the past couple of nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Well above normal temperatures each day but with dry
  conditions.

Strong upper riding moves overhead through the short term
period, bringing continued dry weather and temperatures that are
well above average, in the upper 70s and even toward the low
80s on Thursday. At the surface, an area of high pressure will
be departing off the coast of the Carolina`s early Wednesday but
another surface high should replace it as it slides into the
upper East Coast, ridging down into the FA. A weak frontal
boundary also should be draped north of the area Wednesday
before slowly sagging into the CWA Thursday, likely stalling in
the area. Though dry conditions are expected to continue
Wednesday and Thursday, moisture will be increasing (PWAT`s
around 1-1.15") in response to a deep trough digging into the
Desert Southwest, pulling Gulf moisture well inland. With
moisture increasing especially later Thursday, increased cloud
cover is expected which should keep overnight lows mild, in the
50s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Above normal temperatures into the start of the weekend
 before slight cooling into early next week.

- Rain chances enter late Friday night, continuing through
  Saturday.

Decent consensus is seen across deterministic models in terms
of the evolution of a shortwave trough moving into the area to
end the week, though slight differences in timing and intensity
still exist. The 12z GFS is a bit earlier in timing and depicts
a stronger shortwave while the ECMWF is slower and weaker with
its progression. The Canadian is the in between solution,
showing similar intensity of the shortwave as the GFS but timing
is closer to that of the ECMWF. With PWAT`s nearing the NAFES
90th percentile and at minimum, weak forcing from the shortwave,
PoP`s increasing starting late Friday night, becoming more
scattered during the day Saturday morning and afternoon before
waning overnight seems reasonable. After this, strong agreement
in a quick hit of surface high pressure is seen Sunday and
Monday before a sharp shortwave may near the region Tuesday,
though significant timing differences exist in its progression
at this time.

For temperatures, highs around 10-15F above average are
expected Friday and Saturday where near record highs in low 80s
will be possible Friday. A slight cool down, is then expected
into the early week, though temperatures should still be
slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected through the period.

High pressure sliding offshore is producing mainly clear skies
and southerly winds, between 5 and 10 kts this afternoon. A
system approaching keeps winds elevated some overnight,
generally out of the southwest. Winds shift more west-
southwesterly after about 14-15z, increasing again. Some gusts
around 15 kts are also possible. Some scattered clouds around
the 5kft are also likely tonight into tomorrow.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue through
most of the week with dry air in place. Increasing moisture
Friday night will lead to chances for rain and possible
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$