Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
542 FXUS62 KCAE 050622 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 222 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... There will likely be more clouds around today with the chance of a few passing showers, mainly in the CSRA. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected early next week with ridging in place. The next significant chance of rain comes mid- week as a cold front sweeps through the forecast area, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler and dry air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - A few showers today mainly in the CSRA The center of surface high pressure will drift further east today. This will promote easterly onshore flow into the forecast area with deepest moisture across southern SC and the CSRA. Mean PWAT values from the HREF range from 1.6 to 1.8 inches in eastern GA while only around 1 inch in the Pee Dee and Catawba regions. An upper shortwave is lifting into the region which may support a few showers this morning into the afternoon. Rainfall should be restricted to the southern Midlands and CSRA with drier air to the north hindering convection. Very weak MUCAPE values this morning and later in the afternoon suggest a thunderstorm may be possible but poses no severe threat. As the shortwave moves away from the region, and daytime heating is lost we expect convection to diminish this evening. Cloud cover and showers today will limit highs to the upper 70s to low 80s in the southern FA. It may be a little warmer to the north with highs in the low 80s. Lows tonight will be above normal, in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Decreasing clouds with lower rain chances on Monday. - Partly to mostly sunny and dry on Tuesday. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures both days. Upper ridge axis will be overhead on Monday, flattening out on Tuesday as a trough pivots through the Great Lakes region. Surface flow will remain easterly at the start of the short term, keeping high PWATs in place on Monday. However, onshore flow may weaken slightly, limiting moisture advection. This translates to decreasing cloudiness through the day and lower rain chances, though a passing shower or rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out in the CSRA. Tuesday should feature a brief period of dry weather ahead of the approaching upper trough and associated cold front. There should be more sunshine on Tuesday resulting in slightly warmer daytime temperatures, though values should be near to slightly above seasonal values on both Monday and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key message(s): - Cold front expected to move through Wednesday evening into Thursday with showers and thunderstorms possible. - A dry and cooler air mass filters in behind the front to close out the extended. Upper trough passes to our north on Wednesday, pushing a cold front through the region. Timing remains similar to the previous forecast package with rain chances increasing through the day but with the highest PoPs Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Instability is limited ahead of the boundary meaning any thunderstorms that manage to develop are unlikely to be severe. Showers may linger into Thursday depending on how quickly the cold front can push through the FA. A cool, dry air mass will filter in behind the cold front to close out the extended. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR cigs and showers possible, mainly at the Augusta sites today. Easterly flow will lead to an increase in low level moisture today and could promote MVFR ceilings at AGS and DNL around 12Z. Light showers will be possible too this morning and into the afternoon as well as moisture continues to be drawn in from the coast. With much direr air over the CAE and CUB terminals they should remain dry through the TAF period. Winds are expected to be generally easterly through the period from 5 to 10 kts after about 15z, becoming light this evening. Another shortwave may produce some light showers again early Monday morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place through mid week ahead of a cold frontal passage. This will keep at least a slight chance of rain in the forecast with the possibility of restrictions each morning. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$