115
FXUS61 KCAR 071924
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
224 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking into Quebec will pull a warm front north
across the area tonight followed by a cold front on Saturday.
High pressure will build overhead Saturday night. Low pressure
will approach on Sunday, cross the area Monday and continue into
eastern Canada Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge axis extending thru the CWA will shift east this evening as
low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. Warm front has lifted
into srn New England at this time. With warm lifting thru the CWA
this evening overrunning will develop in conjunction with favorable
jet dynamics and blyr cold enuf for snow at onset north of
Millinocket. As front lifts thru the region overnight, warm air will
change snow over to rain during the evening toward Houlton just
before midnight and over the St. John Valley around 3 am.

Plenty of lift looks to be available with a quick burst of snow btwn
00-06z tonight. Overall qpf during this time will range from 0.10-
0.20 inches with best lift just below the snow growth area. Strong
winds will tend to fragment any snowflakes that fall and likely
result in lower accums. With ground temps still being warm and snow
changing to rain not expecting to wake up to much snow in the
morning, unless snow falls at an intense rate.

Initial boundary looks to move thru shortly before daybreak with
rainfall coming to an end as dry slot works in. Cold front will move
thru the area in the afternoon.

Skies will begin to clear Saturday evening with high pressure
building in. Though winds will remain well-mixed H8 temps drop to
-5C and will bring mins into the 20s over all locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vertically stacked low pressure system over Canada swings
through the northeast on Sunday. There has been some
discrepancy in model runs over whether a coastal low pressure
system will also develop Sunday into Monday, but latest runs
are favoring its development. Dry and cloudy on Sunday, as
clouds and chances of precipitation increase Sunday evening
into nighttime. Surface trough drapes over Maine, which is a
favorable set up for cold air damming in the Central Highlands
region. Dropped temperatures down during the day Sunday, as a
result of this. Otherwise, highs generally in the upper-30s in
the north, to mid-40s Downeast and along the coast.

Sunday night, low pressure in Canada moves into Maine, as
coastal low slides along the Gulf of Maine, decent moisture is
advected into the region with PWATs ranging from three quarters
of an inch to an inch in the north, and one inch to an inch and
a quarter Downeast. Precipitation overnight begins as snow
north of I-95, with a rain/snow transition along the central
Highlands, and rain to the south. Overnight temperatures drop
down into the upper-20s and low-30s in the north, and upper-30s
and low-40s Downeast and along the coast.

Winds begin to pick up Sunday night as low system approaches,
shifting directions from the east to the west throughout the day
on Monday. This is the result of strong mid-level jet that
swings through central Maine, predominantly impacting the
Downeast region. Once the sun rises and temperatures increase,
all precipitation transitions over to rain. Given warm air
advection ahead of aforementioned coastal low pressure system,
temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid-40s in the north
and, mid-50s along the coast. Mostly cloudy skies. Rain
throughout the day into Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather persists in between pressure systems, as rain
showers persist Monday night, potentially changing over to snow
in the north by Tuesday. Next low pressure system moves into
New Brunswick, with deep trough swinging through New England,
bringing another chance for precipitation mid-to-late week.
Generally, decreasing temperature trend, with highs in the
mid-30s in the north and low-40s Downeast. Overnight lows in the
20s. Potential for breezy conditions Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this afternoon will diminish to MVFR
at all terminals this evening. Southern terminals likely to drop
to IFR in rain after 09z Saturday.

Aroostook terminals will see IFR snow, transitioning to rain from
south to north during the nighttime hours.

Precipitation looks to come to an between 12z-15z with slow
improvement to MVFR cigs. Winds will shift from southerly to
southwesterly Saturday morning with gusts to 15-25kts. LLWS at all
terminals overnight.

Saturday afternoon/night will see VFR conditions.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday: Mainly VFR, decreasing towards MVFR late from south to
north as snow showers move into the north and rain showers into
the south. Winds shift from the NW to the E, at around 5 kts.

Sunday night - Monday night: MVFR/IFR across all terminals,
possible LIFR in rain/snow mix at northern terminals early
Monday morning. E winds 5 to 10 kts through Monday afternoon,
shifting SW at 5 to 10 kts Monday night. LLWS possible Monday
afternoon into night.

Tuesday - Tuesday night: Generally VFR, with MVFR possible in
rain showers, with snow possibly mixing in at northern terminals
early. SW to W winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Wednesday: Generally VFR early, before MVFR in rain/snow
showers. Winds SW at 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 25kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions increase to sca levels late this afternoon
with seas increasing above 5ft after 06z in southerly swell.
Southwest winds diminish below 25kts by Saturday afternoon with
seas remaining elevated through Saturday evening before dropping
below sca levels.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds generally stay below Small Craft
Advisory criteria Sunday, an then reaches Small Craft Advisory
conditions Sunday night into Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 30 kts
possible during this time frame, with waves reaching up into 6-8
ft. Wave heights and wind gusts stay elevated throughout the
rest of the week. Generally, rain over the waters possible
Sunday night into Monday, and then sporadic rain showers
throughout the waters through the rest of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...21
Short Term...ASB
Long Term...ASB
Aviation...21/ASB
Marine...21/ASB