510
FXUS61 KCAR 110652
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
152 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves north of the area today. A series of upper-
level disturbances will cross the region Wednesday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The occluding low pressure system will continue to move north
and east away from the forecast area this morning. Lingering
convective showers from early this morning will pull northwards
with this low, leaving the CWA. Patchy fog may linger through
around sunrise due to the increase in moisture near the surface,
but will lift out through the day due to diurnal mixing. Cool
temperatures will continue today, with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s throughout the region.

A cold front will approach from the west this evening and cross
the CWA overnight tonight. This front will lead to another
quick round of showers throughout the region. As already cool
temperatures begin to lower, these showers will likely begin as
snow, though the immediate coast may see rain showers instead.
Light accumulations are expected, with highest amounts in the
north approaching one inch, though most likely any area which
sees an inch or more of snow accumulation will be the higher
elevation areas of the Central Highlands and the North Woods.
Winds will also pick up behind the front tonight into Wednesday
morning, with gusts 30 to 35 mph.

A narrow ridge of high pressure will return into the day on
Wednesday, and winds will diminish as the pressure gradient
aloft relaxes. Though showers will have moved out to the east at
this point, the narrow ridge will prevent clouds from clearing
out as well, and a cloudy and cool day is in store for
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper-level troughing along moves through the area Wednesday
night with shortwave ridging moving in behind it from the west.
A snow shower or two may pop up during the night, primarily in
the North Woods, but otherwise expect mostly dry conditions and
mostly cloudy skies. By mid-day Thursday the shortwave ridging
will have weakened and exited the area as another shortwave
trough moves in behind it. This shortwave should provide enough
lift for scattered convective showers and snow showers to
develop over the area. Northern areas are most likely to see
snow as a result of steep low-level lapse rate despite
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The upper-low closes off
in the maritimes Thursday night resulting in upper-level
troughing remaining over the area on Friday with a few embedded
shortwaves moving through the trough. This may result in another
round of convective showers south and snow showers over the
north.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Friday night, upper-level troughing remains in place while
the closed low over the maritimes drifts slightly back west.
Meanwhile, upper-level ridging over the Great Lakes region will
result in high pressure developing just off to our west. The
pressure gradient between the departing low and high building in
may make for some breezy conditions Friday night. The closed low
remains off to the northeast Saturday which may result in some
snow showers in northeast Aroostook as moisture wraps around
the system. Meanwhile, conditions should be mostly dry elsewhere
as high pressure builds in. High pressure should be short-lived
before another weak low approaches from the Great Lakes region.
Models are expressing confidence on the existence of a weak low
passing through our area but are still uncertain in exact
intensity and timing. Currently expecting at least some
rain/snow showers over much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mostly IFR conditions will continue through the early
morning hours, prior to clearing to VFR/MVFR at Downeast
terminals. Northern terminals may struggle to clear IFR, but
could SCT out this afternoon. Another system will move through
tonight, which may result in cigs and vis dropping back to
IFR/LIFR at all terminals for a few hours. Conditions will
finally lift towards VFR across all terminals on Wednesday. SW
winds 5 to 10 kts today will increase tonight to 10 to 15 kts
and shift W. Gusts overnight may lift to 20 to 30 kts. Winds
then decrease through the day on Wednesday, becoming SW around 5
to 10 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR/MVFR Downeast with a
slight chance of early rain showers. Light and variable winds.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers north. A chance
of rain showers Downeast. Variable winds around 5 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR
Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early.
North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow/rain showers
north. VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain showers.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers north.
VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers north.
VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers
all terminals. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Elevated seas remain through the day today with seas
5 to 8 ft, while wind gusts 20 to 25 kts increase through the
day, reaching gale force this afternoon and lasting through the
night tonight. Gusts will gradually decrease through the day on
Wednesday, falling below small craft advisory levels Wednesday
afternoon. However, seas will be slow to respond, remaining 3 to
6 ft through the day on Wednesday. Rain and snow showers
possible tonight which could briefly limit visibility.

SHORT TERM: Seas decrease to below SCA criteria by Thursday
morning. Winds and seas remain below SCA criteria through
Friday. SCA conditions, mainly due to offshore gusts up to 25
kt, possible Friday night through Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AES
Short Term...SM
Long Term...SM
Aviation...AES/SM
Marine...AES/SM