182
FXUS61 KCAR 041931
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
231 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region Friday into Saturday. A
cold front crosses the region Sunday. High pressure builds
toward the region Monday and crosses the region Tuesday. Low
pressure could cross the region Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages:
* Frigid temperatures tonight, gusty W-NW winds
* Snow Squalls end this evening

Discussion...
The arctic cold front is pushing SE across the central half of
the CWA with heavy snow showers. Instability has been lacking
today preventing these snow showers from reaching squall
criteria. However, cannot rule out dangerous travel conditions
through this evening till the cold front can clear the Downeast
coast. Latest timing shows that occurring between 3PM and 5PM
with most snow showers ending across the area. Temperatures are
falling behind this front but generally 2-5 degrees and slow
falls with us getting much closer to sunset this time of year.

Secondary cold front which is the big push of arctic air will be
pushing down over the area this late afternoon into the evening.
The air mass that is arriving in Maine originated in Siberia
Russia around November 26th. NOAA Hysplit modeling shows the air
mass tracked down over the North Pole into Central Canada and
then now arriving in Maine. Cannot rule out some isolated snow
showers overnight across the north thanks to NW winds providing
a band of Laurentian snow showers streaming down from the St.
Lawrence River Valley of Quebec. This is typically hardly
modeled correct in strong NW flow when the St. Lawrence River is
still open providing significant amount of moisture into the low
levels.

Hi-Res modeled soundings shows the well mixed boundary layer
this evening into the overnight hours with strong cold air
advection. Expecting W-NW winds to become gusty with gusts
25-35mph and some higher gusts possible over the higher terrain.
These gusts combined with air temperatures falling below zero
for much of Northern Maine & Central Highlands will send wind
chills deeply below zero. Wind chills tonight across the
Moosehead Region, North Woods and all of Northern & Northeast
Aroostook County expected to drop to between -30F and -25F so
have continued the Cold Weather Advisory from 9PM tonight till
8AM Friday. Have opted to expand it to NE Aroostook in this
update with increasing confidence in wind gusts. Air
temperatures outside of the advisory will be running from -5F
north to +5F at the coast. Wind chills will drop into the -18F
to -10F range tonight.

In addition to the frigid temperatures gusty winds will lead to
areas of blowing snow tonight thanks to fresh snowfall.
Localized whiteouts and dangerous driving conditions in the open
areas of Aroostook and N. Penobscot counties. This could impact
such roadways but not limited too; Routes 1, 1A, 2, 10, 11, 89,
161, 163, 167 and 212. Additional areas of blowing snow across
any open areas of the Central Highlands especially along Route
6 to Moosehead/Greenville region.

Friday will feature surface high pressure drifting east over
Cape Cod. Winds will relax and slowly shift SW. Air temperatures
will remain cold with highs in the low teens north, mid to upper
teens Central Highlands to Bangor Region and low 20s Downeast.
Any winds will keep wind chills below zero across the north and
single digits above zero for the southern zones. Friday night
air temperatures will fall back around 0F across the north with
0-10F across the Central Highlands to Bangor region and 10-15F
for the Downeast coast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure exits across the Maritimes Saturday with a warm front
then approaching late. Expect partly sunny skies early
Saturday, with clouds then increasing along with
isolated/scattered snow showers. A strong cold front will cross
the region Saturday night through early Sunday. Expect mostly
cloudy skies along with scattered snow showers across northern
areas Saturday night. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly
cloudy skies with isolated/scattered snow showers early then
partly cloudy. High pressure builds toward the region Sunday
with generally partly sunny skies, though could also have
isolated snow showers early across the north and mountains.
Another system could begin to approach from the west later
Sunday night with a chance of snow or snow showers, though
uncertainty still exists. Temperatures will be at below normal
levels Saturday/Sunday.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Could have a chance of snow showers or snow with the system Monday,
though uncertainty still exists. A more active pattern is
possible Tuesday through Thursday. An upper low should remain in
the vicinity of northern Quebec province Tuesday through
Thursday. A series of difficult to time disturbances should
rotate around the upper low each of which which could support a
possible surface low. One system is possible later Tuesday into
Wednesday, with another possible system later Wednesday into
Thursday. The strength, track and timing of these systems is
still uncertain. Precipitation chances, types and amounts will
be dependent on how these systems eventually develop. Much below
normal level temperatures are expected Monday/Tuesday, with
slightly below normal level temperatures Wednesday/Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Northern Terms...VFR/MVFR cigs and brief MVFR vsby
possible due to VCSH/-SHSN this evening. Turning VFR. W-NW winds
increasing to 10-15kt and gusts 20-35kt. LLWS likely late.
Tomorrow will feature VFR. Winds relaxing and shifting W-SW
5-15kt in the afternoon.

Southern Terms...VFR. Brief MVFR cigs/vsby due to -SHSN through
sunset. Then VFR. W-NW winds increasing 10-15kt with gusts
25-35kt. LLWS likely late. Tomorrow will feature VFR, winds
relaxing and shifting W-SW 5-15kt in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming south/southeast.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. Isolated/scattered snow showers. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday...Isolated early snow showers north. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR.
West/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR early, then MVFR/IFR. A slight chance/chance
of snow. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Monday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A slight chance/chance of snow.
North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Monday night...VFR/MVFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Tuesday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow
showers. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale Warning in effect through 7AM Friday for all of
the waters out 25nm. NW winds tonight 25-35kt and gusts up to
45kt. Seas 7-10ft over the coastal waters and 3-5ft for the
intra-coastal waters. Winds/seas will fall below SCA criteria
between 7-10AM Friday morning. Winds shifting W and relaxing
well below SCA levels Friday evening into the overnight hours to
Saturday early AM.

SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft advisory levels
Saturday/Saturday night. Small craft advisory conditions
possible Sunday/Sunday night. Isolated/scattered rain and snow
showers Saturday into Saturday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST
     Friday for MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...JS
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...JS/CN
Marine...JS/CN