877
FXUS61 KCAR 041129
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
629 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic cold front crosses the region today. High pres builds
across the region Fri into Sat. A cold front crosses the region Sun.
High pres builds toward the region Mon and crosses the region
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Points:
* Snow squall potential today may cause hazardous travel
  conditions for the evening commute
* Very cold wind chills tonight, with a Cold Weather Advisory
  for the North Woods into the Central Highlands

630 AM Update: Current surface observations and radar mosaic
indicates the arctic front is currently crossing the St.
Lawrence River. Simultaneously, current IR satellite imagery has
already shown that cloud tops over the St. Lawrence are rapidly
cooling, indicating glaciation aloft which can be an indicator
of convection at the surface... a precursor to potential squall
development. The front should cross into our forecast area
within the next 1 to 2 hours.

Discussion:
An arctic front will approach from the west this morning,
crossing through the forecast area through the daylight hours. A
prefrontal trough may lead to some early snow showers ahead of
the FROPA. That said, the most impactful snow showers will occur
along the boundary itself, which will provide the lift necessary
to kick off the convective shower development. Weak but nonzero
CAPE of 20 to 40 J/kg will fuel these showers, and steep lapse
rates around 8 C/km will help mix increasing winds aloft due to
a tightening pressure gradient to the surface. Together, these
ingredients may lead to scattered moderate to heavy snowfall in
any showers that develop. There exists the chance for snow
squall development as well, particularly later in the day as the
front approaches the eastern border and diurnal heating peaks
and winds aloft increase further, increasing the potential for
surface gusts to exceed 30 mph. Finally, temperatures around
freezing ahead of the cold front will rapidly drop into the
single digits by this evening. This quick turn in temperatures
could lead to flash freezes, further impacting travel impacts
heading into the evening commute today.

Strong cold air advection behind the arctic front will lead to
winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph, while
temperatures dip below zero. Combined, wind chills will approach
20 to 30 below zero in the north, and 10 to 15 below zero
Downeast. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the North
Woods down into the Central Highlands for these very cold wind
chills. Thankfully, temperatures will begin to climb once more
Friday morning, and though high temperatures may only lift into
the low to mid teens during the day on Friday, winds will
gradually decrease and wind chills will quickly drop off into
the daylight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
-Cold Friday night with lows in the single digits

High pressure remains overhead Friday night with the arctic
airmass expected to persist over the area. This should result in
the continuation of anomalously cool temperatures around 10
degrees below normal. With the high centered over us, the lack
of a pressure gradient should keep winds light and thus wind
chills are not a concern.

High pressure gradually exits to the east on Saturday and with
it much of the cold air. Temperatures should only be a few
degrees below normal Saturday. A weak shortwave approaches from
southern New England and is likely to produce some scattered
rain showers over the waters and snow showers over the Downeast
area during the day. Meanwhile, a cold front will be
approaching from Canada and may produce some snow showers over
the north late Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages
-Arctic air returns Sunday night through Tuesday night with
 temperatures well below normal

The cold front reaches the region Sunday morning and may produce
some snow showers over the north early in the day. However,
models are not very optimistic on precipitation chances due to a
lack of moisture and a rapidly weakening front.

Behind the front, a fast moving shortwave may bring some light
snow showers to the area Sunday night. Meanwhile, prevailing NW
flow is likely to bring another shot of cold arctic air which
will send temperatures down to at least the single digits Sunday
and Monday night. Luckily, winds should be relatively light so
not expecting a major wind chill concern.

Temperatures begin a warming trend Tuesday which will continue
into mid week. High pressure prevails Tuesday with the chance
for another system Wednesday but models are expressing
uncertainty in how that would evolve.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR conditions will last through the day
today, into tonight, and through the day on Friday. Brief
periods of IFR/LIFR possible during the day today in snow
showers, some of which may be squalls containing heavy squalls.
Most likely time for LIFR in SHSN is after 13z and prior to 18z,
and these conditions are most likely over northern terminals,
though there remains a chance for moderate to heavy snow
showers at all terminals today. SW winds 5 to 10 kts shift NW
behind a cold front through midday, increasing to 10 to 15 kts
and gusting 25 to 35 kts through tonight. Winds decrease,
becoming SW 5 to 10 kts by Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Friday night...VFR. Light SW winds early becoming light and
variable.

Saturday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with snow showers,
especially for southern terminals. S/SE winds around 5 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with chance snow showers early. Light
and variable winds.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with isolated snow showers northern
terminals. W/NW winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with chance snow showers. NW winds 5 to
10 knots.

Monday...VFR. W/NW winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday night...VFR. W wind around 5 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A gale warning remains in effect beginning this
afternoon as gusts increase to 40 to 45 kts and seas increase to
6 to 9 ft. Conditions improve to below small craft advisory
criteria by midday Friday.

SHORT TERM: Winds decrease from small craft advisory criteria
Friday night. Winds and seas below small craft advisory criteria
through Sunday. Winds increase to above SCA criteria Sunday
night through Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST
     Friday for MEZ001-003-004-010.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AES
Short Term...SM
Long Term...SM
Aviation...AES/SM
Marine...AES/SM