353
FXUS61 KCAR 050024
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
724 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region through Friday night. A
warm front passes Saturday, followed by a cold front crossing
the region Saturday night. High pressure then builds toward the
region through Monday night and crosses the region Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
645pm Update...Snow showers continuing early this evening across
the North - addressing with SPSs. For now where have the wind
gusts, do not have the visibilities and vice versa for snow
squalls. Do expect all snow showers to come to end in the next
couple of hours as supporting shortwaves exit to the east into
New Brunswick along with the axis of the closed upper low.
Strong cold advection this evening, then winds tapering off
overnight. Still on track for wind chills down to -25 tom -30 across
the advisory area, so no change in headlines.

Otherwise, made minor changes to the forecast to reflect the
latest trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears
on track.

Previous Discussion...
Key Messages:
* Frigid temperatures tonight, gusty W-NW winds
* Snow Squalls end this evening

Discussion... The arctic cold front is pushing SE across the
central half of the CWA with heavy snow showers. Instability has
been lacking today preventing these snow showers from reaching
squall criteria. However, cannot rule out dangerous travel
conditions through this evening till the cold front can clear
the Downeast coast. Latest timing shows that occurring between
3PM and 5PM with most snow showers ending across the area.
Temperatures are falling behind this front but generally 2-5
degrees and slow falls with us getting much closer to sunset
this time of year.

Secondary cold front which is the big push of arctic air will be
pushing down over the area this late afternoon into the evening.
The air mass that is arriving in Maine originated in Siberia
Russia around November 26th. NOAA Hysplit modeling shows the air
mass tracked down over the North Pole into Central Canada and
then now arriving in Maine. Cannot rule out some isolated snow
showers overnight across the north thanks to NW winds providing
a band of Laurentian snow showers streaming down from the St.
Lawrence River Valley of Quebec. This is typically hardly
modeled correct in strong NW flow when the St. Lawrence River is
still open providing significant amount of moisture into the low
levels.

Hi-Res modeled soundings shows the well mixed boundary layer
this evening into the overnight hours with strong cold air
advection. Expecting W-NW winds to become gusty with gusts
25-35mph and some higher gusts possible over the higher terrain.
These gusts combined with air temperatures falling below zero
for much of Northern Maine & Central Highlands will send wind
chills deeply below zero. Wind chills tonight across the
Moosehead Region, North Woods and all of Northern & Northeast
Aroostook County expected to drop to between -30F and -25F so
have continued the Cold Weather Advisory from 9PM tonight till
8AM Friday. Have opted to expand it to NE Aroostook in this
update with increasing confidence in wind gusts. Air
temperatures outside of the advisory will be running from -5F
north to +5F at the coast. Wind chills will drop into the -18F
to -10F range tonight.

In addition to the frigid temperatures gusty winds will lead to
areas of blowing snow tonight thanks to fresh snowfall.
Localized whiteouts and dangerous driving conditions in the open
areas of Aroostook and N. Penobscot counties. This could impact
such roadways but not limited too; Routes 1, 1A, 2, 10, 11, 89,
161, 163, 167 and 212. Additional areas of blowing snow across
any open areas of the Central Highlands especially along Route
6 to Moosehead/Greenville region.

Friday will feature surface high pressure drifting east over
Cape Cod. Winds will relax and slowly shift SW. Air temperatures
will remain cold with highs in the low teens north, mid to upper
teens Central Highlands to Bangor Region and low 20s Downeast.
Any winds will keep wind chills below zero across the north and
single digits above zero for the southern zones. Friday night
air temperatures will fall back around 0F across the north with
0-10F across the Central Highlands to Bangor region and 10-15F
for the Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure exits across the Maritimes Saturday with a warm front
then approaching late. Expect partly sunny skies early
Saturday, with clouds then increasing along with
isolated/scattered snow showers. A strong cold front will cross
the region Saturday night through early Sunday. Expect mostly
cloudy skies along with scattered snow showers across northern
areas Saturday night. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly
cloudy skies with isolated/scattered snow showers early then
partly cloudy. High pressure builds toward the region Sunday
with generally partly sunny skies, though could also have
isolated snow showers early across the north and mountains.
Another system could begin to approach from the west later
Sunday night with a chance of snow or snow showers, though
uncertainty still exists. Temperatures will be at below normal
levels Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Could have a chance of snow showers or snow with the system Monday,
though uncertainty still exists. A more active pattern is
possible Tuesday through Thursday. An upper low should remain in
the vicinity of northern Quebec province Tuesday through
Thursday. A series of difficult to time disturbances should
rotate around the upper low each of which which could support a
possible surface low. One system is possible later Tuesday into
Wednesday, with another possible system later Wednesday into
Thursday. The strength, track and timing of these systems is
still uncertain. Precipitation chances, types and amounts will
be dependent on how these systems eventually develop. Much below
normal level temperatures are expected Monday/Tuesday, with
slightly below normal level temperatures Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR, with the possible exception of brief period of
MVFR/IFR at KCAR/KPQI/KHUL through 1-2Z with the passage of any
stronger snow showers. NW-WNW winds around 15G25KT, cannot rule
out a peak gust to 30-35KT but not enough confidence in this at
anyone point to reflect in the TAFs, should diminish to under
10KT with no gusts around 8-10KT. Could see some gusts to
15-20KT late this morning/early this afternoon at Northern
terminals.

Friday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots, becoming south/southeast.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. Isolated/scattered snow showers.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest 10 to 15
knots.

Sunday...Isolated early snow showers north. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR.
West/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR early, then MVFR/IFR. A slight chance/chance
of snow. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Monday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A slight chance/chance of snow.
North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Monday night...VFR/MVFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Tuesday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow
showers. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale Warning in effect through 7AM Friday for all of
the waters out 25nm. NW winds tonight 25-35kt and gusts up to
45kt. Seas 7-10ft over the coastal waters and 3-5ft for the
intra-coastal waters. Appears to be some sign could see gusts
fall below gale criteria sooner than 12Z Friday, especially
over the intracoastal waters. If trends hold, could make some
adjustments to the headlines later this evening. Otherwise,
Winds will fall below Gale criteria between 7-10AM Friday
morning, then to Sub-SCA levels by 23Z. Winds shifting W and
relaxing well below SCA levels Friday evening.

SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft advisory levels
Saturday/Saturday night. Small craft advisory conditions
possible Sunday/Sunday night. Isolated/scattered rain and snow
showers Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Friday for MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...PM/JS
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...PM/JS/CN
Marine...PM/JS/CN