278
FXUS61 KCAR 131809
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
109 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will remain over Eastern Canada through
Saturday as a series of weather disturbances moves through. A new
upper low diving down from Central Canada will develop low pressure
near our coast on Sunday. Low pressure will lift into Eastern Canada
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will remain well to our east
over Newfoundland tonight keeping us in a chilly northwesterly flow.
Some isolated flurries are possible this evening, mainly over the
highlands. Otherwise, tonight should be mainly dry.

The low to our east over Newfoundland will remain nearly stationary
on Friday keeping our cool northwesterly flow. Generally dry weather
should continue with a partly cloudy sky and lows from the teens
northwest to the mid 20s Downeast.

The Newfoundland low will begin to retrograde northwestward in
response to some blocking and amplification Friday night. Dry
weather should persist overnight. However, the low lifting northwest
may increase the gradient a bit keeping a cool breeze through the
night.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...Accumulating snow possible across most of the area Saturday
night into Sunday...

Saturday through Sunday, a low pressure system will cross the
state and move northward into Nova Scotia. This will bring the
first chance for real accumulating snow across the north. A warm
wedge will move over the region on Saturday night, then colder
air will filter in behind the low on Sunday. The exact path of
the low will make a difference in how much warm air moves in
Saturday night. Rain/snow mix is likely Saturday night into
Sunday, but there is a chance that the air column could be
colder than expected, leading to a greater accumulation of snow.
How quickly we transition to the colder air mass will also
affect how much snow accumulates Sunday into Monday. Have
lowered temps slightly on Sunday from NBM deterministic to
reflect the possibility of a cooler air column. Current snow
accumulation total are ranging 1 to 3 inches, but this does not
include potential snow Monday morning, and the spread is quite
wide. The likelihood of more than 4 inches of snow before the
Monday morning commute is 20 to 30 percent over eastern Maine,
which means that commuters should prepare for a messy drive.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An increasing chance exists for gusty winds on the backside of
the low Monday and Monday night. The northwesterly direction
indicates that the over the waters the highest winds and waves
will be mainly offshore, but there is some potential for gales
over the water. Across the mainland, cold gusty winds are likely
Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning, particularly at
higher elevations. Winds will taper off Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Occasional MVFR to locally IFR conditions are possible this
evening, mainly across the north. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected tonight, Friday and Friday night. Winds NW around 5 kt
tonight then 10 kt gusting to 15 Friday and Friday night.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday...VFR. W to NW wind.

Saturday night...VFR early, then MVFR or lower in developing
snow north and rain or snow south. S wind.

Sunday...Widespread IFR expected in snow north and rain and snow south.
SE wind becoming W late.

Sunday night...IFR north and MVFR south. Chance snow. W to NW
wind.

Monday through Tuesday...MVFR/VFR Scattered snow showers north.
Gusty W wind.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
A SCA for wind gusts up to 25 kt over the offshore waters will
persist into Friday evening. Winds should gradually diminish
later Friday night. Seas around 4 ft tonight and 3 ft Friday
into Friday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds will diminish below 25 kts on Saturday, but
the potential for gales exists starting Sunday afternoon and
lasting until Tuesday morning. Seas will gradually build to 6 to
8 feet during this period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...MB
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...MB/LF
Marine...MB/LF