341
FXUS61 KCAR 300648
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
248 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build down from the northwest today into
Wednesday, crest over the area Thursday, then slide south of the
region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northerly flow both at the surface and aloft will continue
across the region through Wednesday. A large area of high
pressure at the surface, centered near James Bay, will slowly
drift east across Quebec province through tonight. Expect mainly
sunny skies for the Bangor region and Downeast areas this
afternoon. Across northern areas, expect partly sunny skies, as
some moisture around 5 Kft will result in some broken
stratocumulus developing. Afternoon highs today will only range
from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the north and the mid to
upper 60s across northern areas.

High pressure will continue to build across Quebec province tonight
in response to the confluent flow aloft. An upper disturbance will
be dropping down from the northeast toward the Canadian Maritime
provinces. The forecast soundings and HREF ensemble mean cloud cover
would suggest at least patchy stratocumulus clouds around the
northern half of the forecast area tonight. Thinking that the
potential for some patchy cloud cover and at least a bit of a breeze
will limit optimal radiational cooling conditions. Thus, just
some patchy frost expected across the North Maine Woods, where
the growing season has already ended.

High pressure remains centered to our northwest on Wednesday. At the
same time, an upper level disturbance will be crossing the Canadian
Maritime provinces to our east through the afternoon. Expect
mainly cloudy to partly sunny skies across the region during
Wednesday. An isolated sprinkle or shower cannot be totally
ruled out, but confidence is too low to mention at this time.
Afternoon high temperatures will be several degrees below
normal for this time of year, with lower 50s across the north,
and mid to upper 50s for the Bangor region and Downeast. There
will also be an increasing rip current risk along the downeast
coast on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure lingers over New England and Canada, as hurricane
Humberto moves off into the Atlantic, well to Maines south. As
a result of this, gusty winds, primarily over the waters
Wednesday evening, alongside elevated seas. Colder 850mb temps
in the -2-0C range, along with light winds and clear skies.
Expecting temperatures to drop down into the upper-20s and low-30s
in the north, and upper-30s along the coast. Potential for some
frost in northern and central Maine, along with some river
valley fog.

On Thursday, high pressure stays over the region, with clear
skies and highs in the upper-50s. Light winds. Any high seas from
departing hurricane begin to settle during the morning.
Overnight, another chance for low temperatures in the mid-30s
throughout the region. 850mb temperatures look to be warmer than
Wednesday night, so did slightly bump lows up a bit, but still
accounting for radiational cooling. There is a chance for more
frost overnight in the north and central Maine regions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday night through Saturday has high pressure lingering over
the region with dry and calm conditions. Shortwave moves through
the region Sunday, bringing a few light showers across the Crown
of Maine early morning. Next shot of rain looks to be Tuesday
as an upper-level trough and associated frontal system moves
through. Low confidence on timing, but expecting rain to start
in the north and gradually move south. Gradual warm up trend,
with highs getting into the 70s this weekend. Lows in the 40s
and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR is expected through Wednesday. However,
there will periods of MVFR ceilings developing at times at the
Aroostook terminals through Wednesday, especially KFVE. N wind
10 to 15 kt through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday night...VFR, though may see IFR vsbys at PQI and HUL late.
N winds at 5-10kts.

Thursday-Saterday...VFR. NW 5-10kts becoming SW Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through
Wednesday evening. Long period swell from distant Hurricane
Humberto will begin to affect the waters later today through
Wednesday with seas reaching 5 to 8 ft. Winds may also gust up
to 25 kt at times on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas elevated due to Hurricane Humberto
passing well to the south Wednesday night. Gusty winds over
25kts and seas approaching 3 to 8 ft. Winds and seas slowly
decrease back to below SCA criteria by Thursday night. Winds
from the N Wednesday night, and shift to the W/SW by Thursday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will continue today as dry gusty winds
push down from the north. Winds will be breezy at about 10 to 15
mph with gusts up to 20 mph in combination with RH values at a
minimum of around 35 to 45%. RH increases on Wednesday then
decreases again late week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...TWD/Brennan
Marine...TWD/Brennan
Fire Weather...