Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
037 FXUS61 KCAR 080624 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 124 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area today, followed by high pressure through tonight. Low pressure will approach Sunday, cross the area Monday and continue into eastern Canada through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As the low pressure system continues to shift northeast and the center of the low track just north of the forecast area, the bulk of precipitation will exit to the east into New Brunswick through the early morning hours. Currently the rain/snow line is found across central Aroostook county through northern Somerset county, and there have been reports of freezing rain at the transition line. Any period of freezing rain before snow transitions to plain rain will be brief, but could result in a brief glaze that further enhance the chance for slick surfaces. Temperatures will gradually rise through the early morning hours, with the entire forecast area lifting above freezing by shortly after sunrise. Today, highs may lift into the 50s, potentially near 60 Downeast where partial clearing will occur, prior to a cold front plunging through the area late in the day. Lows tonight will be primarily driven by this cold air advection since skies will not completely clear out, but lows could fall into the teens to lower 20s in the north and mid 20s Downeast. For Sunday, a narrow ridge of high pressure will quickly begin to shift eastward as the next low pressure system approaches from the west. With a colder air mass in place, highs on Sunday will be cool and may only reach into the upper 30s in the north and lower 40s Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday night: The upper level trof over the Great Lakes is expected to push a negatively tilted surface low into the region. Models seem to have this system as two merging surface lows, one moving across the Midwest and one moving up the Atlantic coast. By Sunday night, the models show the lows merging over New England, then moving NE towards the area. Precip should begin before midnight with the warmer air south of the Central Highlands producing rain and the cooler air to the north producing snow. As of this update, heavier snow amounts of about 1 and half inches in the North Woods. Monday: The slowly progressing upper level trof keeps the jets stream over the region, which makes for a more north movement of the system. Timing of the precip exit is still uncertain, but the warmer airmass should switch all precip to rain. Monday night: The center of the low should intensify and become more defined. The system should pick up some speed, but still make for some light precip. The cold airmass should remain in the west, mainly in the North Woods, which should see some snow. The rest of the regions should see rain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An active pattern will continue through the rest of the week. The upper level trof should continue to swing disturbances across the NE. Wednesday maybe be one of the few days that should see some clearing of any precip due to the surface ridge. Otherwise, these shortwaves should bring cool air with them, making for below normal temps for the high temps. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR conditions continue through the next several hours before precip exits to the east. A brief period of FZRA may exist at KPQI north through KFVE before a full transition from SN to RA. Brief LLWS is also possible during this transition. An improvement to VFR is expected across all terminals this morning and will last through the rest of the day and into the night tonight, with W winds 5 to 10 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts this afternoon. Winds will become light and variable overnight, and remain light and shift out of the E during the day on Sunday, while VFR continues across all terminals. Cigs will gradually become OVC and begin to lower late in the day on Sunday. SHORT TERM:Sunday night-Monday night: MVFR/IFR across all terminals, possible LIFR in rain/snow mix at northern terminals early Monday morning. E winds 5 to 10 kts through Monday afternoon, shifting SW at 5 to 10 kts Monday night. LLWS possible Monday afternoon into night. Tuesday-Tuesday night: Generally VFR, with MVFR possible in rain showers, with snow possibly mixing in at northern terminals early. SW to W winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Wednesday: Generally VFR early, before MVFR in rain/snow showers. Winds SW at 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 25kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Small craft advisory criteria remain through the rest of the day into the night tonight with gusts 25 to 30 kts and seas 6 to 9 ft. Winds will begin to decrease late tonight into the day on Sunday, though seas will be slower to respond, and the SCA may need to be extended further into the day on Sunday, though all conditions should be below advisory criteria by Sunday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas reach SCA levels Sunday night into Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 30 kts possible during this time frame, with waves reaching up into 6-8 ft. Wave heights and wind gusts stay elevated throughout the rest of the week. Generally, rain over the waters possible Sunday night into Monday, and then sporadic rain showers throughout the waters through the rest of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...AES Short Term...ARL Long Term...ARL Aviation...AES/ARL Marine...AES/ARL