733
FXUS61 KCAR 101924
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
224 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crosses the area this evening, then moves north of
the region Tuesday. Upper level disturbances will cross the
region Wednesday into Saturday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
This afternoon, low pressure approaches Maine from the
southwest. Rain showers persist throughout the afternoon,
primarily in the Downeast and Bangor regions. As cold front
approaches, there is some minimal elevated instability that
could lead to a rumble of thunder Downeast or over the waters.
MUCAPE reaches around 400 J/kg, alongside decent low-level
shear, helicity, and lapse-rates, all of which favor some
convection. There has been some strikes over the waters and
coast this afternoon, and currently monitoring another region of
enhanced convection in the Atlantic that is slowly moving
towards the coast. Chances of thunder decreases by midnight.

Tonight, low system finally swings through Maine from the
southwest. Expect increased cloud cover, and rain showers that
transition over to snow in the western North Woods, as
temperatures drop. Overnight lows in the upper-20s and low-30s
in the North Woods, mid-30s in Eastern Maine, and low-40s
Downeast. Soundings did hint at a slight chance of freezing rain
in portions of far western North Woods, but any accumulations
would be under 0.05 inches. The rest of northern and eastern
Maine will just see rain. Winds expected to begin picking up
speed as system approaches, mostly shifting to the southwest by
late tonight. Potential for more low-status/fog to develop over
the coast tonight, but elevated wind speeds will work against
development, especially went southerly winds become
southwesterly.

Tomorrow, once the low pressure passes to the northeast, some
shortwave disturbances move through northern Maine, resulting in
a chance for snow showers given the additional instability and
lift. Chance for some rain over the waters and Downeast coast
given higher temperatures. As trough axis swings through, mid-
level jet roughly around 120kts at 500mb moves to the east of
our CWA, placing us in the left-exit region favoring some lift.
Elevated winds throughout the day, primarily Downeast where
mixing could bring down some 30-35mph gusts. Daytime highs in
the mid-to-upper 30s in the north, and low-to-mid 40s in
eastern and coastal Maine.

Tomorrow night, surface ridge builds in from the west, pushing
light snow showers to the east before they taper off late that
night. Minimal-to-no snowfall accumulations. Winds still gusty
with a decent pressure gradient over the state. Temperatures
decrease into the 20s Tuesday night, with partially cloudy
skies.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure briefly crosses the region early Wednesday. Another
upper level disturbance and occluded front then arrive later
Wednesday. Clouds increase Wednesday. Will also have a slight chance
of afternoon rain/snow showers north, with a slight chance of
afternoon rain showers Downeast. Upper level troffing develops
Wednesday night. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of
snow showers across northern areas Wednesday night. Across Downeast
areas, expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of
rain/snow showers early then partly cloudy overnight. An upper
low closes across the Maritimes Thursday/Thursday night,
maintaining troffing across the forecast area with difficult to
time disturbances moving through the trof. Expect mostly cloudy
skies along with a chance of rain/snow showers across northern
areas Thursday, with partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies along with
a chance of rain showers Downeast. Mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of snow showers will occur across northern areas
Thursday night, with partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a
slight chance of rain/snow showers Downeast. Expect slightly
below normal level temperatures Wednesday/Thursday.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The closed upper low remains across the Maritimes Friday maintaining
troffing across the forecast area with disturbances still moving
through the trof. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of
rain/snow showers across northern areas Friday. Generally expect
partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of rain showers
Downeast Friday. Will have mostly cloudy skies along with a slight
chance of snow showers across northern areas Friday night, with
generally partly cloudy skies Downeast. The Maritimes upper low and
trof begin to slowly drift east across the Maritimes Saturday,
though how rapidly this occurs is still uncertain. High
pressure should then begin to build toward the region later
Saturday. Generally expect partly/mostly cloudy skies north,
partly cloudy Downeast, Saturday. However, if the upper trof is
slow to exit could also still have a slight chance of rain/snow
showers across the north and mountains. High pressure could
briefly cross the region early Sunday. Uncertainty then
increases later Sunday into Monday regarding the upper pattern
and subsequent impacts on a possible surface low. Precipitation
chances/types later Sunday into Monday will be dependent on the
eventual evolution of this system. Expect slightly below normal
level temperatures Friday through Monday.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: IFR/LIFR at all northern terminals, with
low ceilings and reduced visibility with rain showers. Northerly
winds generally pretty light this afternoon. LLWS expected this
evening into tonight. Winds shift around to the southeast as
cold front passes through the region, and then to the southwest
late tonight. Gusts up to 25 kts possible. Rain showers stay in
the region through the morning tomorrow morning. Ceilings slowly
begin to lift by daybreak, at least IFR levels. There is a
chance for vicinity thunderstorms, primarily at KHUL, this
evening.

KBGR/KBHB: IFR/LIFR at all southern terminals, with low ceilings
and reduced visibility with rain showers. Northerly winds
generally pretty light right now. A few hours of LLWS expected
this evening into tonight. Winds shift around to the southeast as
cold front passes through the region, and then to the
southwest. Become northwest by tomorrow morning. Gusts up to 25
kts possible. Rain showers stay in the south until evening.
Ceilings slowly begin to lift by daybreak, to at least IFR
levels. There is a chance for vicinity thunderstorms, primarily
at KBHB, this evening. Chance for low stratus near KBHB tomorrow
morning as well.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance of rain/snow showers north. A
slight chance of rain showers Downeast. South/southwest winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow showers north.
VFR/MVFR Downeast with a slight chance of early rain/snow showers.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A chance
of rain showers Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR
Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early.
North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday.,..VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow/rain showers north.
VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain showers. Northwest winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers north.
VFR Downeast. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of rain/snow showers north.
VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around
20 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Extended Small Craft Advisory into tomorrow
afternoon, as seas stay around 6-8 ft over all waters. Rain late
tonight through tomorrow, with a potential for a few isolated
thunderstorms tonight. Winds currently from the SE, shifting to
the SW as cold front passes. Conditions deteriorate to Gale
Force winds tomorrow afternoon and seas up up top 8 ft in the
intra- coastals and up to 10 ft over outer waters possible.

SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts possible early Wednesday.
Otherwise, small craft advisory conditions Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Conditions below small craft advisory levels
Thursday. Small craft advisory conditions possible Thursday
night. A chance of rain showers Wednesday into Thursday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...ASB
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...ASB/CN
Marine...ASB/CN