203
FXUS61 KCAR 082337
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
637 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through tonight, then slides offshore on
Tuesday. A weak area of low pressure crosses the Gulf of Maine
Tuesday night, followed by a stronger low tracking from the Great
Lakes Wednesday morning to across Maine Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This low then slowly lifts northeast through the
maritimes into Friday night. Another storm system approaches from
the Great Lakes on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
630PM Update (MS):
Despite clear skies winds are remaining elevated, so some
adjustments back towards the NBM were necessary tonight into
Tuesday. Wind chills are currently as low as 14 below at
Frenchville and 18 below at Saint Zacharie in northern Somerset
County. Winds decrease proportionally with temperature
overnight, so nearly all areas are still not expected to reach
cold advisory criteria. No other significant changes were
needed.

Previous Discussion:
Northwest flow aloft tonight gives way to locally zonal flow on
Tuesday. With no shortwaves progged to be embedded in this flow,
it should be dry. After cold advection clouds dissipate early
this evening, it should be mainly clear tonight. Should see an
increase in mid-high clouds Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next
system. Lows tonight should be from the low single digits below
zero to the mid-upper single digits above zero, this is around
15-20 degrees below normal. Wind chills tonight should be
around 5 below to 15 below across most of the North and from
around 5 below to 5 above elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday should be
from the mid teens to around 30. This is about 15 degrees below
normal.

A northern stream shortwave approaches Tuesday evening, then
crosses the area late Tuesday night. This should bring a round
of light snow to at least Downeast Maine and the Bangor Region
with the potential for 1-3" of snow - and highest totals over
coastal Downeast Maine away from the immediate coast. There is
some question as how far N/W the snow gets - with it likely that
NW areas could remain snow free or get only some flurries. Lows
Tuesday night should be around 5-10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weather disturbance will be lifting away to the northeast
Wednesday morning. Our attention then turns to a new area of low
pressure approaching from the Great Lakes supported by a trough of
low pressure tracking through the Midwest. Snow ahead of this low
will spread into our area Wednesday afternoon as the low quickly
approaches. Most of the model guidance is bringing the low center
across the central part of our region. This favors the low pulling
enough warm air to the north to change precipitation over to rain
Downeast and in the lower Penobscot Valley but keeping precipitation
as all snow over the north. This is a fast moving storm with most of
the snow expected between mid to late afternoon Wednesday into mid
to late evening Wednesday night. A light to moderate accumulation of
3 to 6 inches looks probable across Northern Penobscot and Eastern
Aroostook Counties with a bit less over the west where drier air
will surge in a bit more quickly.

Low pressure will move away to the northeast late Wednesday night
into early Thursday. However, some of the models are indicating that
there could be a trailing shortwave and low crossing our area
Thursday morning which could result in some light snow or snow
showers persisting into Thursday. Otherwise, an upper trough
lingering late Thursday will bring mostly cloudy conditions over the
north with chances for snow showers across far northern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will be nearby to the north
Thursday night into Friday. This will bring cold gusty west to
northwesterly winds and a chance for some snow showers over western
and northern areas. Strong winds aligned from surface to aloft on
Friday may result in a band of convergence forming downwind from the
Laurentian Mountains in Quebec. This band typically runs
southeast across Aroostook County, clipping northern Penobscot
County, and impacting the Rt 1 Corridor from Mars Hill to
Houlton with snow showers. Windy conditions may produce blowing
snow in open areas. Gusty wind and a chance of snow showers will
continue into Friday night.

Looking ahead to the weekend, we will remain in a cold longwave
trough with mid-winter like temperatures continuing. Some of the
forecast models are showing the potential for another weak weather
system sliding in from the west through the trough. However, fast
flow, limited moisture and limited ability to dig will mean any new
system would likely only result in some renewed light snow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. LLWS at northern terminals tonight. Winds W-WSW
at 10KT or less. Gusts to around 15 kt are possible at northern
terminals through early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday night...VFR through approximately 6z at all terminals,
then IFR or lower likely at southern terminals. Chance of MVFR
or lower at KCAR/KPQI/KHUL late - with best chance at KHUL, VFR
at KFVE. Light snow accumulation likely KBGR/KBHB. SW-S winds
G15KT possible.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday...MVFR lowering to IFR from south to north. S winds across
the south and SE winds across the north around 5 kt.

Wednesday night...IFR to LIFR. Light and variable wind north. SW
wind around 7 kt south.

Thursday...IFR improving to MVFR by mid morning. VFR south and MVFR
north in the afternoon. W wind 5 to 10 kt.

Thursday night...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 5 to 10 kt.

Friday...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 10 to 15 kt gusting to 20
kt.

Friday night...MVFR north becoming VFR. VFR south. W wind 10 kt.

Saturday...MVFR, possibly lowering to IFR at times south. W wind 5
to 10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA conditions across all waters through late this
evening and continuing on the coastal ocean waters into the
overnight hours, then sub-SCA conditions on waters through
Tuesday. Gales are possible on the coastal ocean waters Tuesday
night, with SCA conditions likely then on the intra-coastal
waters. The threat of Gales is highlighted in the HWO.

SHORT TERM:
A gale headline may be needed for the offshore waters Wednesday
night for W winds gusting up to 35 kt. A SCA will likely need
to continue for the rest of the week for winds gusting over 25
kt. Winds may drop just below SCA over the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...PM
Short Term...MB
Long Term...MB
Aviation...PM/MB/MWS
Marine...PM/MB