047
FXUS61 KCAR 110010
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
710 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crosses the area this evening, then moves north of
the region Tuesday. Upper level disturbances will cross the
region Wednesday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
710 pm update...
Showers have been occurring in waves through the CWA this
afternoon and evening. Warm front is lifting onto the coast at
this time with Bar Harbor at 55F and Bangor at 46F. Sfc low
currently located just offshore of the mid-coast and will lift
thru the CWA tonight. Lightning strikes have been noted over
Downeast this afternoon with CG strikes occurring over ern
Aroostook at this time.

Tweaks to pops, temps and dwpts to ingest latest observations
into forecast. No major chgs needed with this update.

Prev discussion blo...
This afternoon, low pressure approaches Maine from the
southwest. Rain showers persist throughout the afternoon,
primarily in the Downeast and Bangor regions. As cold front
approaches, there is some minimal elevated instability that
could lead to a rumble of thunder Downeast or over the waters.
MUCAPE reaches around 400 J/kg, alongside decent low-level
shear, helicity, and lapse-rates, all of which favor some
convection. There has been some strikes over the waters and
coast this afternoon, and currently monitoring another region of
enhanced convection in the Atlantic that is slowly moving
towards the coast. Chances of thunder decreases by midnight.

Tonight, low system finally swings through Maine from the
southwest. Expect increased cloud cover, and rain showers that
transition over to snow in the western North Woods, as
temperatures drop. Overnight lows in the upper-20s and low-30s
in the North Woods, mid-30s in Eastern Maine, and low-40s
Downeast. Soundings did hint at a slight chance of freezing rain
in portions of far western North Woods, but any accumulations
would be under 0.05 inches. The rest of northern and eastern
Maine will just see rain. Winds expected to begin picking up
speed as system approaches, mostly shifting to the southwest by
late tonight. Potential for more low-status/fog to develop over
the coast tonight, but elevated wind speeds will work against
development, especially went southerly winds become
southwesterly.

Tomorrow, once the low pressure passes to the northeast, some
shortwave disturbances move through northern Maine, resulting in
a chance for snow showers given the additional instability and
lift. Chance for some rain over the waters and Downeast coast
given higher temperatures. As trough axis swings through, mid-
level jet roughly around 120kts at 500mb moves to the east of
our CWA, placing us in the left-exit region favoring some lift.
Elevated winds throughout the day, primarily Downeast where
mixing could bring down some 30-35mph gusts. Daytime highs in
the mid-to-upper 30s in the north, and low-to-mid 40s in
eastern and coastal Maine.

Tomorrow night, surface ridge builds in from the west, pushing
light snow showers to the east before they taper off late that
night. Minimal-to-no snowfall accumulations. Winds still gusty
with a decent pressure gradient over the state. Temperatures
decrease into the 20s Tuesday night, with partially cloudy
skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure briefly crosses the region early Wednesday. Another
upper level disturbance and occluded front then arrive later
Wednesday. Clouds increase Wednesday. Will also have a slight chance
of afternoon rain/snow showers north, with a slight chance of
afternoon rain showers Downeast. Upper level troffing develops
Wednesday night. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of
snow showers across northern areas Wednesday night. Across Downeast
areas, expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of
rain/snow showers early then partly cloudy overnight. An upper
low closes across the Maritimes Thursday/Thursday night,
maintaining troffing across the forecast area with difficult to
time disturbances moving through the trof. Expect mostly cloudy
skies along with a chance of rain/snow showers across northern
areas Thursday, with partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies along with
a chance of rain showers Downeast. Mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of snow showers will occur across northern areas
Thursday night, with partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a
slight chance of rain/snow showers Downeast. Expect slightly
below normal level temperatures Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The closed upper low remains across the Maritimes Friday maintaining
troffing across the forecast area with disturbances still moving
through the trof. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of
rain/snow showers across northern areas Friday. Generally expect
partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of rain showers
Downeast Friday. Will have mostly cloudy skies along with a slight
chance of snow showers across northern areas Friday night, with
generally partly cloudy skies Downeast. The Maritimes upper low and
trof begin to slowly drift east across the Maritimes Saturday,
though how rapidly this occurs is still uncertain. High
pressure should then begin to build toward the region later
Saturday. Generally expect partly/mostly cloudy skies north,
partly cloudy Downeast, Saturday. However, if the upper trof is
slow to exit could also still have a slight chance of rain/snow
showers across the north and mountains. High pressure could
briefly cross the region early Sunday. Uncertainty then
increases later Sunday into Monday regarding the upper pattern
and subsequent impacts on a possible surface low. Precipitation
chances/types later Sunday into Monday will be dependent on the
eventual evolution of this system. Expect slightly below normal
level temperatures Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR at all terminals during the overnight.
Expect improvement to MVFR over southern terminals between
07-09z as low level clouds scatter out.

Northern terminals remain IFR/LIFR through 12z Tuesday in low
clouds and vsbys. Showers will continue to move thru before
lifting north and out of the area between 06-08z. MVFR cigs
expected over Aroostook terminals thru the day Tuesday with
possibility of showers moving in late in the afternoon with VCSH
mentioned.

Surface winds will be variable throughout the overnight as
surface low tracks overhead tonight with southwest winds
expected as it moves into Canada early morning.

All terminals will see a brief round of LLWS late tonight from
the south-southeast between 35-40 at FL020.


SHORT TERM:

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance of rain/snow showers north. A
slight chance of rain showers Downeast. South/southwest winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow showers north.
VFR/MVFR Downeast with a slight chance of early rain/snow showers.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A chance
of rain showers Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR
Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early.
North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday.,..VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow/rain showers north.
VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain showers. Northwest winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers north.
VFR Downeast. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of rain/snow showers north.
VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around
20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Rain late tonight through tomorrow, with a potential
for a few isolated thunderstorms tonight. Winds currently from
the SE, shifting to the SW as cold front passes. Conditions
deteriorate to Gale Force winds tomorrow afternoon and seas up
up top 8 ft in the intra- coastals and up to 10 ft over outer
waters possible.

SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts possible early Wednesday.
Otherwise, small craft advisory conditions Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Conditions below small craft advisory levels
Thursday. Small craft advisory conditions possible Thursday
night. A chance of rain showers Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...ASB/21
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...ASB/21/CN
Marine...ASB/21/CN