Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
535 FXUS62 KCHS 212340 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 640 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will dive across the area Saturday night, followed by the return of high pressure early next week. Rain chances then return late Wednesday into Thursday as another cold front takes aim at the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to retreat to the east overnight while a weak upper shortwave approaches from the west. We could see isolated showers move into our far inland zones around daybreak Saturday as a weak cold front sags into the area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Zonal flow will prevail aloft on Saturday, with a shortwave trough rippling across the southeastern states early Sunday morning. At the surface high pressure Saturday will retreat offshore as a weak cold front associated with the shortwave aloft pushes through the region. With the front not pushing through until later Saturday night or even early Sunday morning, high temperatures on Saturday will soar to near record levels (see Climate section for more details) with highs pushing 80 across most locations. Little precipitation is expected with FROPA, with only a slight chance of showers featured in the forecast, mainly across inland locations. High pressure then builds across the region Sunday and Monday, allowing dry conditions to prevail. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler during this time, though still above normal. Thus, look for highs in the low to mid 70s, with overnight lows ranging from the low 40s inland to near 50 along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad ridging aloft will dominate in the upper levels through Tuesday while high pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. Upper level troughing then develops across the Ohio River Valley by mid-week, dragging an attendant cold front eastward across the sfc. Still a bit of variability in place between models, but most guidance generally agrees that the next best chance for seeing precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday as the aforementioned front dives across our area. Nonetheless, with PoPs less than 30%, still not expecting to see much in the way of meaningful accumulations. Otherwise, look for afternoon highs in the 70s to largely prevail before FROPA, with highs then dipping into the 60s in its wake. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 21.00z TAF Issuance: All TAF sites are currently VFR, however a mid-level wave is moving east over central Georgia. Underneath the disturbance, light rain is being reported at several locations with a thick 12kft deck overhead. This wave is forecast to move east and then northeast over coastal South Carolina early Saturday morning. TAF sites will likely remain VFR as low level dry air remains in place. However, some reports of light rain do appear possible (especially at KJZI and KCHS). As the sun rises, the mid-level wave will have exited the region to the northeast with a brief period of MVFR possible, but a quick transition to a VFR cu deck is likely. A cold front will then approach the terminals late Saturday, but a prefrontal trough will initiate highly localized (<20% chance of observing) showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given the low probability of occurrence, no mention of thunder or precipitation was included in the TAFs at this time. The other item to mention are the winds and wind gusts. Out ahead of the cold front, southwest flow sustained around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt is possible. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Conditions through the period are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A weak cold front will push through the marine waters Saturday, with high pressure dominating through the remainder of the weekend and into next week. SW winds will strengthen ahead of the front, with gusts around 15 to 20 knots. Saturday night into Sunday morning winds will diminish slightly to around 10 to 15 knots and shift to the NW and then NE by early next week. Seas are forecast to average 2 to 3 ft. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: November 21: KSAV: 82/2011 November 22: KCXM: 79/1997 KSAV: 82/1997 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JRL SHORT TERM...SST LONG TERM...SST AVIATION...Haines/JRL/SST MARINE...JRL/SST