Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
490 FXUS62 KCHS 210557 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1257 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure is expected to prevail across the area through the rest of the week. A cold front is forecast to sweep across the region Saturday night, followed by more high pressure early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Through Sunrise: Fog is possible. Some of it may be locally dense. Headlines may be needed. Today and Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of weak ridging over the Southeast this morning. It`ll transition to zonal flow this evening and prevail overnight. At the surface, weak High pressure will prevail. The High will bring dry conditions through this evening. The NBM has slight chance POPS far inland after midnight. Temperatures will be above normal. Highs will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Zonal flow will prevail aloft on Saturday, with a shortwave trough rippling across the southeastern states early Sunday morning. At the surface high pressure Saturday will retreat offshore as a weak cold front associated with the shortwave aloft pushes through the region. With the front not pushing through until later Saturday night or even early Sunday morning, high temperatures on Saturday will soar to near record levels (see Climate section for more details) with highs pushing 80 across most locations. Little precipitation is expected with FROPA, with only a slight chance of showers featured in the forecast, mainly across inland locations. Despite the cold front, as high pressure builds back into the region on Sunday and into Monday high temperatures will reach into the low to mid 70s, still a couple degrees above normal. Low temperatures will similarly be slightly above normal, dipping into the low 40s inland and around 50 along the coast. A rain-free forecast has been maintained into early next week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad ridging aloft will dominate in the upper levels through mid week while high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states will prevail at the surface. Mid-week a large low pressure system over Canada is forecast to sweep an elongated trough across the CONUS late in the week. A cold front associated with the low pressure system is forecast to push through the region late in the period, bringing the region the first real shot at rain in a while, with PoPs currently around 30%. Temperatures through the period are forecast to be above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06Z TAFs: TEMPO IFR is forecasted at all three TAF sites through 13Z. Then, a few hours of MVFR followed by VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: Ground fog is possible early Saturday morning. Otherwise, prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Through Sunrise: Nearshore fog is possible. Some of it may be locally dense. Today and Tonight: Weak High pressure will prevail bringing tranquil marine conditions. Expect sustained winds generally 10 kt or less today increasing to 10-15 kt tonight. Seas will average 1-2 ft today, building to 2-3 ft tonight. Saturday through Monday: Conditions through the period are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A weak cold front will push through the marine waters Saturday, with high pressure dominating through the remainder of the weekend and into next week. SW winds will strengthen ahead of the front, with gusts around 15 to 20 knots. Saturday night into Sunday morning winds will diminish slightly to around 10 to 15 knots and shift to the NW and then NE by early next week. Seas are forecast to average 2 to 3 ft. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: November 21: KSAV: 82/2011 November 22: KCXM: 79/1997 KSAV: 82/1997 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...