169
FXUS62 KCHS 082334
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
634 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region through the
weekend. A strong cold front will move through Sunday night
bringing much colder conditions to the area next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A broad southwest flow will prevail across the Southeast U.S.
tonight as high pressure shifts farther east out into the
Atlantic and the mean upper-level flow veers ahead of a powerful
shortwave that will dig across the Central Plains. The
combination of a modest wind field aloft coupled with a
tightening pressure gradient between the departing high, a weak
low over Virginia and an approaching strong cold front will keep
the boundary layer fairly well mixed through the night. This
will result in a fairly warm night for the region within the
pre-frontal warm sector. Lows should only drop into the lower
60s well inland to the mid 60s at the coast. A few showers owing
to lingering warm air advection/isentropic ascent will keep a
risk for some measurable rainfall into early Sunday morning,
mainly across the interior. Pops 20-30% were highlighted inland
to account for this, but the QPF should remain fairly light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unseasonably strong upper low will dive into the Great Lakes
region on Sunday with the longwave trough extending to the
central Gulf Coast. A strong cold front will sweep through the
local area Sunday evening. Fairly strong warm advection ahead of
the front, along with pre-frontal compression, will result in a
warm day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Moisture
advection ahead of the front looks weak, and instability will be
limited. Large scale subsidence may overspread the area before
the front makes it through, limiting the potential for upward
vertical motion and convective development. It`s still possible
that a thin, broken band of showers or isolated tstms could move
through immediately ahead of the cold front.

The cold front will push offshore late Sunday evening, with
strong cold advection expected across the forecast area through
the rest of the night. Lows could dip below 40 far inland, with
upper 40s closer to the SC/GA coast.

Strong cold advection will continue Monday into Tuesday. Highs
Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the lower 50s. Monday
night into Tuesday morning we expect a solid freeze across the
area, potentially all the way to the beaches. Also, in pockets
of southeast GA the wind chill could briefly dip below 20
degrees, triggering a Cold Weather Advisory. Freeze headlines
are likely to be needed for the entire forecast area Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night, clear sky with light to calm winds should
provide strong radiational cooling conditions through the night.
Low temperatures should fall to around 30 degrees along and
west of I-95, with mid to upper 30s to the east. Winds might
weaken enough to allow frost development as well.

Temperatures should trend warmer through the rest of the work
week. In fact, temperatures should return to mid November
normals by Thursday, remaining near normal through the rest of
the forecast period. Conditions should remain dry under NW mid-
level flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z TAFs: VFR should prevail. Some of the MOS and ensembles
continue to hint at an area of low stratus developing ahead of
an approaching cold front and briefly impacting the TAF sites
prior to daybreak Sunday. But confidence in this occurring
remains low, so it`s not mentioned in the TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty NW winds Monday and Monday
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: There are no concerns. South winds will veer to the
southwest overnight with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt nearshore
waters and 15-20 kt over the Georgia offshore waters. There
could be a few gusts near 25 kt over the Georgia offshore waters
and the far eastern portions of the South Santee-Edisto Beach
nearshore leg, but durations do not look long enough to support
a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Seas will average 4 ft or
less.

Sunday through Wednesday: SW winds Sunday will turn to the NW
and increase Sunday night behind a strong cold front. The
strongest marine winds are expected Monday through Tuesday
during which solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will occur.
We could see gusts near Gale force Sunday night for the offshore
GA waters and nearshore Charleston County waters. Conditions
gradually improve after Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Upcoming Record Low Temperatures:

November 11 (Tuesday):
KCHS: 29/1943
KCXM: 32/1913
KSAV: 31/1968

November 12 (Wednesday):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011

Upcoming Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

November 10 (Monday):
KCHS: 46/1991
KCXM: 47/1991
KSAV: 49/1968

November 11 (Tuesday):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...