955
FXUS62 KCHS 270851
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
351 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A low pressure
system could impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front is now well offshore with a modified continental
polar (cP) airmass advecting into the region. Sprawling 1035
hPa Canadian high pressure centered over Alberta and Saskatchewan
early this morning will build across the Deep South and Southeast
U.S. through tonight with the center of the anticyclone
expected to reach the Mid-Mississippi Valley by daybreak Friday.
Strong cold air advection (CAA) will persist through the day
with 850 hPa temperatures progged to drop from 10-11C early this
morning to 1-2C by sunset and reaching -3 to +1C overnight. This
will result in much colder conditions compared to Wednesday with
high temperatures only recovering to the upper 50s/lower 60s. A
chilly night is in store with overnight lows dropping into the
upper 20s inland to the mid 30s across the coastal corridor with
lower 40s at the beaches. Ongoing weak cold air advection and a
somewhat enhanced pressure gradient associated with the high
building in will keep northwest winds up through the night. This
will produce rather brisk conditions with wind chills dropping
into the mid-upper 20s inland to the lower 30s at the beaches.
Wind chills look to remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A longwave trough aloft will shift off the East Coast on
Friday, resulting in zonal flow in the upper levels into the
weekend. By Sunday another mid level trough will develop east of
the Rockies and begin to push eastward. The surface pattern
Friday and through the weekend will be dominated by high
pressure. A dry forecast has been maintained, with the main
forecast highlight the cold temperatures Friday night. Lows on
Friday night will drop into the mid 20s inland, with freezing
temperatures extending to the coastal counties. The immediate
beaches and other coastal areas will remain above freezing,
dipping into the upper 30s to near 40. Daytime temperatures on
Saturday will only reach into the 40s across the region, despite
plentiful sunshine. Sunday will warm to the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad troughing in the mid levels will dominate as low pressure
develops off the southeastern coastline Monday into Tuesday.
Models are in decent agreement according to recent cluster phase
space analysis. This system looks to provide the region with
the potential for a decent rainfall, with 0.5-1.5 inches
possible. The highest rainfall potential will be Tuesday. The
developing low pressure and the resultant cloudy conditions will
limit temperatures to below normal through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
27/12z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 28/12z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR through the weekend.
Flight restrictions are possible early next week with showers
and low cigs associated with a developing low pressure system
off the southeast coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Northwest winds are expected to surge across the waters
prior to daybreak as a reinforcing push of colder/drier air
pushes offshore. Speeds look to peak in the 15-20 kt range with
a few gusts approaching 25 kt. Wind speeds will diminish this
afternoon as cold air advection begins to wane a bit. Seas will
average 2-4 ft in the offshore flow. Overall, both winds and
seas look to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Tonight: A low-level wind surge will overspread the waters
tonight as the base of the upper trough swings by to the north.
Guidance is similar in showing the strongest 1000-850 hPa winds
directed into the Georgia waters and this is where the best
chances for observing northwest winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to
30 kt will be. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for both
the Georgia nearshore and offshore zones. For the South Carolina
waters, expect winds to generally peak in the 15-20 kt range.
There is a chance for frequent gusts to 25 kt, mainly in the
Edisto Beach-Savannah nearshore leg, but confidence is not quite
high enough to hoist a second period Small Craft Advisory at
this time. The need for an expansion of Small Craft Advisory
into the South Carolina waters will be reconsidered with the
noon update. Seas will build 2-4 ft nearshore waters and 4-5 ft
over the Georgia offshore waters.

Friday through Sunday: High pressure will dominate over the
marine waters through the weekend. NW winds initially on Friday
will shift to the NE and remain slightly elevated through the
weekend as high pressure builds into the region. Winds are
forecast to be 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 through
most of the weekend. Seas are forecast to average 2 to 4 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ354-374.

&&

$$