941
FXUS62 KCHS 020625
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
225 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong high pressure will extend across the region into the
weekend, with rain chances increasing on Sunday into early next
week. A cold front may approach the region in the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The center of a 1030 mb high will remain centered over the Northeast
U.S. today and tonight. The sfc ridge will extend SW along the east
facing slopes of the Appalachians. An H5 trough will ripple off the
Southeast U.S., supporting an inverted sfc trough over the Gulf
Stream. In fact, NHC highlights a disturbance within the trough
between FL and the Bahamas with a 10% chance of formation over the
next 48 hrs. This pattern will support dry and gusty northeast winds
across the forecast area through the near term. High temperatures
are forecast to range from the upper 70s across the SC Lowcountry to
the low 80s across SE GA.

Tonight, the sfc trough over the western Atlantic will shift
slightly coastward this evening. Showers and thunderstorms over the
nearshore waters may brush up against the coast, especially the GA
coast. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 50s
inland to the mid 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak upper-lvl high will linger across the Southeast CONUS, as
inverted trough sits along the coastal Atlantic waters. These two
features combined will continue to support an enhanced pressure
gradient along the Eastern Seaboard and cause for breezy north-
northeasterly winds to persist across the region (w/ winds highest
near the coastline) into early next week. Surface high pressure will
start to slide off the East Coast this weekend, and slowly allow
moisture to return to region. Along with this, north-easterly winds
will shift more easterly to southeasterly and provide a more moist
onshore flow. This onshore flow will support increased chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend into early
next week. However, given the relatively dry airmass in place with
the inland wedge, the best rain chances will remain confined to the
coastal counties and beaches. Consequently, WPC has highlighted a
portion of SE SC and SE GA counties along the coast in a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will gradually warm back up to near-normal values with
highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper-lvl low tries to form over the northwest Gulf along a
stationary front, and then gradually tries to move northward towards
the region early next week. Shortwave energy around the weakening
upper-lvl ridge + moist onshore flow will keep increased shower and
thunderstorm chances through mid-week (esp. in the afternoon/evening
hours). Hence, the southeast will remain in rather wet and active
pattern and PWATs are expected to reach near 2 inches. Highest
chances for precipitation remain along the Georgia coastline where
some flooding of mainly low-lying and poor drainage areas could
occur, esp. if rain falls during the already elevated high tides.
Deterministic and ensemble models have been hinting at a cold front
approaching the region by the middle of next week, and possibly
extending rain chances. Seasonable temperatures will continue with
highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z TAFs: VFR. Gusty NE winds are expected to start around
daybreak Thursday. Winds should settle between 10 to 15 kts this
evening by 1Z.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Mostly VFR. Brief flight restrictions
are possible with showers and thunderstorms that develop in the
afternoon/evening hours this weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: The marine zones will remain between a ridge
across the western Carolinas and coast trough. Northeast winds will
remain between 25 to 30 kts with gusts into the low 30s. Gusts may
reach gale force across portions of the Atlantic waters, but
coverage and duration appears limited. Gusts across the CHS Harbor
should favor values around 25 kts today through this evening. Swell
sourced from Imelda will remain across the marine zones through the
near term. Seas should peak today between 7 to 11 ft. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for all marine zones.

Friday through Tuesday: Breezy north-northeasterly winds at 20 to 25
kt with gusts up to 30 kt will likely hold through the weekend as
the region as the inland wedge strengthens. Additionally, swell from
Imelda with long-period swell from Humberto will continue to pump
into the local waters through the weekend causing seas to range from
6 to 8 ft in the nearshore waters, and 8 to 10 ft in the outer
Georgia waters. The swell should begin to taper back some on Sunday
night. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories (SCAs) remain for all
marine zones through early next week due the combination of high
winds and seas.

Rip Currents/High Surf: A High Risk of rip currents is expected
Thursday (today) and Friday at all beaches due to large, long-period
swells and strong winds. In addition, large breaking waves of 5+
feet are expected through much of the week and a High Surf Advisory
remains in effect until Saturday morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As astronomical tides increase this week, the risk for minor coastal
flooding will increase for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties
during the afternoon high tide cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory
could eventually be needed for this afternoon.

Heading into this weekend and early next week, astronomical tides
will increase due to the upcoming Full Moon (Oct 7) and Perigee (Oct
8). This in combination with the anticipation of continued
northeasterly flow will cause the possibility of coastal flooding to
become more likely along the entire coastline, including both
Downtown Charleston and Fort Pulaski. Saltwater inundation could
then occur during both the morning and evening high tide cycles
during this time. Although there is considerable uncertainty this
far out, persistent favorable winds have the potential to produce up
to major coastal flooding.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...Dennis
LONG TERM...Dennis
AVIATION...Dennis/NED
MARINE...Dennis/NED