399
FXUS62 KCHS 011122
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
722 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will prevail through the weekend. A
low pressure system could impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, a low across the Upper Midwest will steadily dive
to the south-southeast toward the Mid MS Valley which will
leave the forecast area within southwest flow ahead of the
feature. At the surface, weak and dry high pressure will prevail
with precipitable water values less than half an inch. Clear to
mostly clear skies are expected, with full sun yielding
temperatures similar to Friday. After a chilly start, highs are
forecast to peak in the upper 60s to low 70s which would be on
the order of 4-6 degrees below normal for early November.

Tonight: High pressure will become centered near the Mid
Atlantic and ridge down the east side of the Appalachians. Just
offshore, a coastal trough will start to take shape as well. The
main change will likely be increasing cloud cover from
stratocumulus pushing onshore late. Any shower activity that
develops near the coastal trough should remain offshore through
sunrise Sunday. Lows are forecast to mostly dip into the low to
mid 40s away from the coast, with a few upper 30s possible.
Along the coast, upper 40s to low 50s will be more common.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A closed mid level low is expected to be over western TN/KY at
the start of the period/Sunday morning. This wave is expected to
progress across the Southeast and eventually offshore by later
Monday. At the surface, a coastal trough will sharpen offshore
with a weak low possibly forming, before lifting north of the
area Monday. Dry conditions in the morning will see an increase
in shower coverage during the day and overnight Sunday,
especially over southeast South Carolina. Most guidance favors
fairly insignificant totals, less than 0.50 inches with NBM
showing only around a 35% chance of higher amounts over the
Charleston tri-county. Rain chances should decrease through the
day on Monday as the system is expected to pull away.

High pressure will expand across the area on Tuesday with quiet
and dry conditions expected. Temperatures will be a touch
cooler than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No weather concerns are anticipated for the mid to late week
time period. A dry cold front could pass through, but otherwise
high pressure will be the primary feature. A dry forecast is
highlighted Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be
within a few degrees of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z
Sunday.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Prevailing VFR through Sunday.
Flight restrictions are possible Sunday night into Monday as a
weak low pressure could develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Quiet conditions will prevail across the
local waters. Wind speeds will mostly top out around 10 knots,
but could get into the 10-15 knot range at times. Seas should
average 2-3 feet.

Sunday through Thursday: A weak low could form in a coastal
trough offshore Sunday into Sunday night, before lifting north
of the area on Monday. Still some uncertainties with the
evolution of this feature, but winds and seas should increase.
Current forecast keeps conditions below Small Craft Advisory
levels. High pressure will build for the midweek time frame.
Conditions could stay somewhat elevated on Tuesday then the
pressure gradient will ease for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tide cycles are expected next week due to the upcoming
full moon and perigee. Coastal flooding will be possible with
the morning high tides along the entire southeast South Carolina
and Georgia coast, especially as we head towards the middle of
the week when base astronomical levels are already at or near
minor flooding thresholds. Coastal Flood Advisories will be
likely.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...BSH/ETM
AVIATION...BSH/ETM
MARINE...BSH/ETM